Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
344 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active and unsettled weather pattern this afternoon through
  Wednesday with localized flooding issues possible.

- Warmer and drier weather forecast for latter part of the work
  week

- Rain chances return over the weekend and early next week as we
  turn the calendar to June.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

We have expanded the Severe Thunderstorm Watch into Atascosa
County with the severe thunderstorm headed into the county from
the west. More storms may form later this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

As of 1 PM CDT, the line of storms that extends from the San
Angelo's area to the southwest into the Midland's area is
producing heavy rain with rain rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour.
This trend is forecast to continue as the line pushes eastward
this afternoon and evening. This activity is taking advantage of a
mid to upper level trough axis moving across the Southern
Plains/central Texas. As the day progresses, instability increases
to help storms grow to strong and severe weather levels. All
severe weather hazards are possible including very large hail of
2+ inches. Can't rule out an isolated tornado or two. A Level 2 of
5 (Storm Prediction Center) risk of severe thunderstorms
highlights areas west of Highway 281 and Level 1 of 5 risk for
severe thunderstorms east of Highway 281 through Wednesday
morning. Also, WPC ERO Day 1 highlights all of South Central
Texas at a Level 1 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall through
Wednesday morning. As a matter of fact, we are expecting rainfall
rates to be elevated as the convective line of storms moves across
most of the local area through the period. Due to saturated soils
or very wet grounds per last several days, a quick 1 to 3 inches
could cause some sort of flooding issues across the area,
especially over the Flood Watch area. The big concern with this
line is that if slows down as it pushes through Rio Grande
Plains, Southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country, then
probabilities go up for isolated spots to get up to 5 inches of
rainfall. Can't pinpoint the locations and therefore, anyone
under the Flood Watch has equal opportunities. The Flood Watch is
in effect from 4 PM through 8 AM Wednesday and takes all
uncertainties into account. The most likely storm timing is mid/late
afternoon and evening along the Rio Grande Plains, late evening
through early overnight over the Hill Country and parts of the
I-35 corridor, and overnight east of I-35 corridor and Coastal
Plains.

By noon Wednesday, most of the shower and thunderstorm activity
should be concentrated east of I-35 corridor with rain chances
diminishing and coming to an end during the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Dry weather conditions are in store for Thursday and Friday for the
most part. Can't rule out a few showers or even an isolated
thunderstorms along and east of Highway 77 both afternoons. After a
cooler day on Wednesday due to cloud cover and wet grounds, a
warming trend starts for the latter portion of the week with highs
in the upper 80s and lower 90s over most places with mid 90s along
the Rio Grande Plains.

Rain chances return over parts of South Central Texas especially
areas along the Rio Grande Plains and Hill Country per latest
guidance. The somewhat weather pattern continues into early next
week with highs in the 80s and 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR to MVFR ceilings are seen across the area this afternoon with a
line of thunderstorms developing just west of South Central Texas
over the southern Edwards Plateau. While some isolated thunderstorms
could develop ahead of this main line denoted mainly by PROB30
groups, the expected timing for a line of storms was used for TEMPO
groups. Some lingering showers and MVFR ceilings may be seen behind
this line of storms as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  84  70  88 /  80  50  30  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  84  71  88 /  90  60  30  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  84  69  88 /  90  50  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            68  81  68  85 /  80  50  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  89  71  91 /  70  10  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  82  69  86 /  80  50  30  20
Hondo Muni Airport             69  83  69  87 /  80  50  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  84  70  88 /  90  50  20  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  82  70  87 /  80  60  20  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  84  71  88 /  90  40  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           71  84  71  88 /  90  40  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ171>173-183>192-
202>206.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...27

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
558 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     Hail             3 SSE Quemado           28.91N 100.60W
05/26/2026  M1.00 Inch       Maverick           TX   Storm Chaser

            1 inch hail reported.

&&

CJM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
601 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     Tornado          5 N Quemado             29.02N 100.63W
05/26/2026                   Maverick           TX   Storm Chaser

            Corrects previous tornado report from 7 N
            Quemado. Brief tornado reported 1 mile SSE
            of US 277.

&&

MB