Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

608 
WWUS54 KEWX 211039
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
539 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

TXC385-211049-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-260521T1100Z/
Real TX-
539 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN REAL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3001 9993 2988 9968 2964 9996 2967 10002
      2968 10002 2970 10005 2971 10005 2972 10002
      2974 10003 2975 10002 2976 10003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1037Z 218DEG 15KT 2979 9991 

$$

17

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
119 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances for rain this afternoon or evening. Isolated
  showers and storms may develop with the most favored areas over
  the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country.

- Active and unsettled weather pattern continues into next week.
  Multiple rounds of storms with heavy rain could lead to
  localized flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

A complex of storms just north of our area and a strong complex
further south are noted on radar early this morning. The overnight
forecast has evolved with lesser chances for widespread rain
across the area given only showers and non-severe, moderate
thunderstorms between the gap in these systems. Our area may
mostly be rain-free by sunrise leaving a challenging daytime
forecast in place as more energy may be around to redevelop
thunderstorms this afternoon. Guidance seems to favor the southern
Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and possibly into the I-35
corridor for this potential today. Any outflows could also provide
the trigger for development leading to a low confidence forecast
for today. Activity will likely be isolated in nature so many will
still see dry conditions. For storms that do form, continued high
moisture in place will allow for a heavy rainfall potential which
could lead to localized flooding. Additionally, a Level 1 of 5
potential for severe weather is seen in the far west along the Rio
Grande where the highest instability develops today with any
storms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Another disturbance moves over the area today and could initiate
storms out west which would move east later tonight. However,
guidance has backed off on this potential with storms wakening
before they make much progress eastward leaving drier conditions for
tonight into Friday. Models do continue to be consistent with drier
conditions for Friday as remain between a departing disturbance in
the east and another disturbance west of Texas so have trended NBM
PoPs down during this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Our unsettled weather pattern remains in place through next week,
likely even beyond the official seven day forecast. South Central
Texas will mainly be under southwesterly flow aloft allowing for
disturbances to traverse over the area. Additionally,continued
average to above average moisture keeps the fuel for periods of
showers and thunderstorms during this time.

As each round of storms moves across portions of our area, more
stable conditions behind these features will allow for periods of
dry weather as well as the atmosphere recharges. So while
prolonged chances for precipitation are seen in the extended
forecast, periods of dry weather are also expected. As each round
helps determine the set up for the next, it's hard to say with
confidence exactly when dry and wet periods will be, hence, the
continued rain chances. In this pattern, the short term forecast
is the main one to watch as details can be better realized.

That said, there is good agreement in models that a trough will
be located over the Baja Peninsula Friday night, lifting northeast
across Texas through early Sunday. A disturbance ahead of this
main feature could kick off some thunderstorms in the west late
Friday or early Saturday though ensemble guidance more favors
locations from the Hill Country to the Coastal Plains Saturday
evening into Sunday. Again, details will be refined with each
passing forecast but the Saturday into Sunday timeframe does look
to be one to watch for potential stormy conditions.

The forecast becomes even more complicated as an upper
trough/closed low remains relatively stationary over Texas through
Tuesday as where this feature sets up will play a role in rain
chances during this time. Another trough then digs over the
western US towards the middle of next week moving our stalled
system along but reestablishing southwesterly flow over the area
again.

Every rain event will bring soils closer to saturation increasing
the potential for run off which can lead to flash flooding or
river flooding. Flood Watches may need to be considered as we
progress further into the week and weekend. Continue to monitor
the forecast and always have a way to receive warning information.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

South-Central Texas is being split by a weakening storm complex
over the Hill Country and a strengthening storm complex near and
to the south across the Rio Grande Plains through South Texas. We
will remain between these complexes and could see some scattered
showers and a few isolated storms fill in but less coverage as
previously forecast. As a result, have elected to go with VCSH and
PR0B30 groups with -TSRA for the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and
KSSF) late overnight into early this morning. Took out of mention
of any activity into this morning for DRT as activity looks to
remain farther east. VFR conditions begin the period but MVFR
ceilings do establish later this morning. VFR conditions should
return by afternoon. There is a chances for showers and storms to
return late afternoon through evening, with greatest chances for
KDRT. Have added a PROB30 group for -TSRA their while chances
across the other TAF sites is too low to insert at this time. The
winds outside of any convection will remain light from the east
and east-southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              81  69  88  72 /  50  30  10  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  81  69  88  72 /  50  30  10  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     81  68  88  71 /  50  30  20  40
Burnet Muni Airport            78  66  86  69 /  50  30  10  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           85  68  90  71 /  20  20  10  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        79  67  87  70 /  50  30  10  40
Hondo Muni Airport             81  67  85  70 /  20  20  10  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        81  68  88  71 /  50  30  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   80  69  86  72 /  50  30  30  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       81  70  87  72 /  30  20  10  40
Stinson Muni Airport           82  70  87  72 /  30  30  10  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1204 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

TXZ171-188-210545-
Gillespie TX-Llano TX-
1204 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Gillespie
and southwestern Llano Counties through 1245 AM CDT...

At 1204 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hilda, or 14 miles southeast of Mason, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Llano, Castell, Cherry Spring, Prairie Mountain, Enchanted Rock State
Natural Area, Eckert, Crabapple, Doss, Willow City, and Oxford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 9859 3037 9859 3042 9930 3050 9930
      3050 9896 3075 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0504Z 272DEG 28KT 3059 9907

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
507 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

TXZ184-185-211045-
Edwards TX-Real TX-
507 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Edwards and southwestern Real Counties through 545 AM CDT...

At 507 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Camp Wood, or 16 miles west of Leakey, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Camp Wood, Vance, and Barksdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2981 9978 2962 9996 2962 10007 2963 10014
      2993 10006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1007Z 206DEG 8KT 2970 10003

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

62