River Flood Warning 5, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
706 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-There is higher confidence that pockets of heavy rainfall will
 lead to isolated flooding through tonight. A Flood Watch has
 been issued for Burnet County, the I-35 corridor from Bexar
 County northward, and the Coastal Plains.

- Rain chances continue Saturday, but any storms tonight will
  impact how activity develops during the day.

- Warmer temperatures return next week, with some low rain chances
  mainly along and east of I-35 early in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

The remnants of the decayed storm system that moved across the Rio
Grande early this morning is seen on radar over the Hill Country and
Rio Grande Plains with scattered showers and thunderstorms east of
this feature at the time of this writing. High PWATS clocking in at
over 2 inches are forecast today which is over the 90th percentile
climatologically for this time of year. Scattered storms will be
efficient rain-makers with high rain rates which will likely lead to
isolated pockets of flooding. Any training of storms will also
contribute to flooding as some soils are already saturated across
the area. Some of the stronger storms could also produce gusty wind
around 40 mph.

Latest guidance has been consistent in localized amounts of 6-8
inches over some portion of the area which has promoted the issuance
of a Flood Watch through late tonight. This includes Burnet County,
the I-35 corridor from Bexar County north and much of the Coastal
Plains. There is lesser confidence for Bexar County, though recent
flooding this morning across the county would mean any additional
storms that move over the area would quickly produce flooding.

Further west there could be some isolated development late this
afternoon, but we will also have to watch for storm development
again across portions of West Texas and Mexico late this afternoon
which could send another complex of storms across the Rio Grande
tonight, though models widely vary on this solution.

What happens today and tonight will play into how things develop for
tomorrow. An upper low will be just northwest of the area Saturday
afternoon, then lifts northeast out of Texas Saturday night. Most
activity on Saturday should be north of the area where greater lift
is located, but with above normal moisture still in place chances
for isolated showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

The upper low which contributed to our wet short-term forecast lifts
northeast into the Central Plains on Sunday. Low rain chances
continue Sunday afternoon, mainly along and east of I-35 though with
only isolated coverage, most will remain dry. Overcast skies Sunday
morning will begin to clear as far east as the Hill Country Sunday
with temperatures rising a few degrees from previous days. Highs
will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values in
the triple digits for a good chunk of South Central Texas.

With the subtropical high over the area next week, drier and warmer
conditions make a return. Any rain chances during this time will
mostly be limited to the seabreeze with no other notable strong
forcing mechanisms. Temperatures warm slightly next week with heat
indices hovering between the mid 90s to low 100s depending on the
location. Sunday and beyond, South Central Texas remains in a period
of minor to moderate heat risk so practicing heat safety measures is
recommended.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

With active weather over the area, the TAF plans were not adjusted
much off the midday thinking. Convective activity looks to be
peaking soon and should wind down in the the late evening. Will
end the concerns for thunder by 04Z with no expected prevailing
weather to be concerned about after midnight save for a few
pockets of fog. IFR CIGs over I-35 seem reasonable given recent
trends and the new rounds of rain to soak the soils and saturate
low levels. Slightly more stable weather is expected for Saturday
afternoon, but a PROB30 inherited still looks reasonable given the
PWat values that will probably not lower too quickly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  87  74  90 /  80  40  30  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  87  75  89 /  70  40  40  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  87  73  89 /  70  30  30  10
Burnet Muni Airport            70  85  72  88 /  80  40  50  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  91  75  94 /  50  20  20   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  86  73  89 /  80  40  40  20
Hondo Muni Airport             71  87  73  89 /  50  20  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  87  74  89 /  60  40  40  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  86  75  88 /  70  50  20  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  87  75  89 /  60  20  30  10
Stinson Muni Airport           72  88  75  90 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ172-173-191>194-
205>209-221>225.

&&

SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...18

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