River Flood Warning 46, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
701 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 642 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- The threat of additional flash flooding has ended for South
  Central Texas.

- Remaining floodwaters continue to move downstream in the Nueces,
  Frio, San Antonio, Llano, and Rio Grande basins. Avoid flooded
  areas.

- Dry and warm weather continues into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

At long last, the torrential rain and flash flooding threat is
coming to a close for South Central Texas. That said, rises will
continue to move downstream many of the region's swollen rivers,
including Cibolo Creek, Llano River, Nueces River, Frio River, and
the Rio Grande. Some impacts from elevated rises will be seen into
early next week for some riverine areas as floodwaters gradually
disperse or spread across floodplains. Avoid flooded areas and do
not drive through flooded roads.

The organized mid-level feature that triggered MCV development and
brought several days of extreme rainfall to our region is drifting
north into the Texas High Plains, away from South Central Texas.
Skies have already become sunnier over the eastern two-thirds of the
area. Drier mid-level air will be filtering into the region tonight
as an approaching ridge over the Gulf pulls stable Saharan air. That
should calm the weather down entering the weekend. A residual influx
of low-level moisture along the Rio Grande with much weaker and
marginally moist isentropic ascent could still bring a few light
showers over the southern Edwards Plateau Saturday morning and early
Sunday morning, but any activity should stay weak and rain chances
are very low (less than 20 percent). Broader mid-level troughing is
expected to churn up a few thunderstorms over West Texas Saturday
afternoon/evening, but the chance of these reaching rural portions
of western/northern Val Verde County Saturday evening is quite low.

Plenty of high cirrus will continue to swirl over South Central
Texas Saturday in the wake of the outgoing disturbance, but the sun
should still shine through with highs reaching a mixed bag of upper
80s and low 90s for most of the area, with upper 90s closer to South
Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

The strengthening of subtropical ridging over our area will set the
tune for hot and dry weather next week. The ridging will be more
evident at low-levels through Monday, but by midweek the ridging
over our area will be deep through the troposphere as the dominant
ridge previously over the Rockies sinks south to our area. This will
allow temperatures to climb during the week. The surface winds are
more likely to be southeasterly during the week, which could
moderate dry bulb air temperatures. Nonetheless, the strong ridge is
still forecast to help usher in highs in the upper 90s to low 100s
by midweek. As highly saturated grounds and vegetation basks in the
summertime Texas sun, we do anticipate some higher dew points during
the week. This is expected to raise heat indices into the triple
digits. Overnight temperatures will bottom out mildly in the 70s.
Rain chances stay negligible next week with little to no rain
forecast, but a few seabreeze showers could trickle into the Coastal
Plains later this week as southeasterly flow continues.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A few elevated echoes of probably virga might drift by DRT this
evening, but the air has stabilized in the wake of the westward
moving upper disturbance. VFR skies and a moderate S/SE wind that
could gust over 20 knots will close out the evening skies. After
midnight, MVFR CIGS are expected to take shape over SAT, and there
could be enough ground moisture to generate some light fog or IFR
CIGs. We'll keep to a MVFR CIG but show a brief period of CIGs
approaching IFR in a TEMPO over DRT after daybreak. VFR skies
return to all areas by 18Z Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  93  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  93  75  94 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  93  74  94 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  91  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  90  76  92 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  92  74  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  91  74  93 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  93  74  94 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  93  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  92  75  93 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  93  76  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...18

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
643 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     La Grange               29.91N 96.88W
07/16/2026                   Fayette            TX   Public

            A few downed trees and minor structural
            damage in La Grange. Time estimated via
            radar.

&&

MB