Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
244 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- There is a potential for life threatening flooding across part
  of South Central Texas this evening through Thursday evening

- Flood Watch is in effect for a good portion of South Central
  Texas from 9 PM this evening through Thursday evening

- Stay weather aware and check for updates as we go through this
  wet and significant rain pattern

- Dry weather returns for the upcoming weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Latest satellite and radar images are showing convection across
central Texas and near Val Verde County. The shower and storm
activity across central Texas is associated with a mid to upper
level trough that extends east to west across the state while the
activity north of Val Verde County is a combination of the tail end
of the trough interacting with a mid to upper level disturbance over
west Texas. This weather pattern is forecast to continue for the
rest of this afternoon and evening. Outflow boundaries developing
along the trough are forecast to push to the south into the Hill
Country late afternoon and evening as the mid to upper level trough
moves to the southeast. Now, the situation with this picture is the
tropical moisture in place across South Central Texas. So what this
means for us? Well, this morning upper air sounding out of Del
Rio recorded 2.28 inches of precipitable water, which exceeded the
daily max value for today (average is around 1.5 inches). These
2+ inch values could be found across most of South Central Texas
early this afternoon based on the SPC Mesoscale Analysis page.
With such rich tropical moisture in place and upscale forcing
support, heavy rainfall is forecast mid to late afternoon into the
evening across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill
Country and along and east of Interstate 35. Wind shear values are
weak which could lead to storm's training. Intense rainfall rates
are anticipated with these storms which could lead to very high
rainfall rates with up to 2 to 4 inches per hour at times. This
event is not only for late this afternoon into the evening and
continuing overnight mainly across the southern Edwards Plateau
and Rio Grande Plains, it goes for several days with the potential
of heavy rainfall. With that said, a Flood Watch has been issued
for this evening starting at 9 PM through Thursday evening. There
is a potential for life threatening flooding somewhere in the
watch area and we urge residents and visitors of South Central
Texas to stay weather aware and check on weather updates. Storm
rainfall total are expected to exceed 2 inches to around 4 inches
with the potential up to 10 inches for the Flood Watch duration.
There are going to be several rounds of heavy rainfall during the
short term period entering the long term forecast time frame. By
the way, the Weather Prediction Center has placed a moderate
(level 3 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Rio
Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau especially for the
tonight period, Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning and again
Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. Note: Have not seen
these back to back moderate EROs in over a decade. For Tuesday
evening, the increase of the low level jet brings another round of
heavy rainfall mainly across the Hill Country, southern Edwards
Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains. We are going to closely monitor
this wet pattern and can't rule out the expansion of the Flood
Watch in the future. Time will tell. This is a very moist airmass
that we are dealing with and the right features in place to make
it a significant one.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The wet pattern continues on Wednesday and Thursday with the mid to
upper level disturbance over west Texas staying put in addition
to pulses of energy coming in from the southwest flow aloft. This
setup continues to pull increased moisture across the local area
and likely to result in heavy rainfall leading to more flooding
and flash flooding on both days. By Friday, pwats decrease
significantly based on forecast soundings. We may have the last
episode of moderate to heavy rain before entering to a drier
weekend. Due to the projected rains and wet soils, daytime highs
are going to be at or slightly below normal values for the rest of
the work week but back to the 90s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Convective activity will increase over the area this afternoon
especially after 21Z. Scattered/widespread TSRA is expected to
push south to the KAUS area late afternoon and KSAT area this
evening, spreading west to KDRT by 09Z. Storms may evolve from
scattered TS to a solid line/cluster. This will focus tonight's
storm activity, but additional SHRA/TSRA is expected to develop
again after 12Z. CIG forecast is highly uncertain due to TS
influences, but expect a patchwork of MVFR/VFR conditions
throughout the region after 03Z. Further degradation to IFR CIGs
is possible near DRT after 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  87  73  86 /  70  80  60  80
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  87  73  86 /  70  90  60  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  88  73  86 /  70  70  50  80
Burnet Muni Airport            72  84  70  84 /  70  90  60  80
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  86  72  84 /  60  80  70  90
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  85  71  86 /  70  90  60  80
Hondo Muni Airport             74  86  72  83 /  70  60  70  80
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  88  73  86 /  70  70  60  80
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  85  74  86 /  60  80  40  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  87  74  85 /  60  60  50  80
Stinson Muni Airport           77  88  75  85 /  60  50  50  80

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Thursday evening
for TXZ171>173-183>192-202>206-217>219-228.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Tran