Wind Advisory 1, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1106 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1105 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

 - Windy conditions will prevail Tuesday through Friday, with
   blowing dust likely across southern New Mexico and far west
   Texas. This may cause impact travel conditions by reducing
   visibility on area roadways.

 - Critical fire weather conditions are expected Wednesday as
   strong winds combine with very dry humidity. Outdoor burning is
   discouraged. Any fires that do start will spread rapidly.

 - Drier conditions with near to slightly below normal
   temperatures for the weekend along with lighter winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Models continue to indicate spring is coming this week. Initial
trough will be moving out of the southern CA region and lift
northeast. As it does, surface low deepens from eastern MT into
western NE. This isn't usually conducive to our strongest winds,
but there will be H70 winds increasing to 40-60KTS with almost
100KTS at H50. There will also be some mid/high clouds for most of
the area but decent gradient setting up over the area will allow
for advisory or near advisory winds for most of the CWA with high
winds in the Sacs. Blowing dust is also likely to develop,
especially along cold front as it moves through. With recent
rains, not confident how dense it will be so will not go with any
highlights for dust at this time and see how it plays out.
As is typical with these spring systems, there will be some
precipitation out west but will lose moisture by the Continental
Divide. Maybe an inch or 2 of snow can be squeezed out above
7000ft in the Gila region. Temperatures will range from the lower
70s east to mid 50s east with 40s in the mountains.

A similar setup for Wednesday, except not much cloud cover or
precipitation. Winds aloft not quite as strong as Tue, but with
better heating and low level instability, should mix down nicely
with similar wind speeds to Tue. Temperatures will warm about 5
degrees for most areas west of the RGV. A little "break" in winds
for Thursday but still in the breezy to low end windy category.
Light rain/snow showers possible in the Gila region with colder
air moving in.

Still some differences in models come Fri but a quick look at the
latest EC, it is coming in with a stronger trough similar to the
GFS which will lead to another windy day, possibly similar to Tue.
Again, another chance for some light precipitation in the higher
elevations. This system will be much colder and snow levels look
to fall down to around 5000-6000ft.

Dry conditions return for the weekend into early next week, but
there will be a little reinforcing shot of cooler air with a back
door entering on Sat night. Temperatures during this time will be
near to about 5 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

P6SM SCT150-200 SCT-BKN200-250 through 06Z with some SCT-
BKN070-090 BKN120-150 moving in from west to east. Isolated
showers over the lowlands near the AZ border after 12Z with
scattered to numerous rain/snow showers in the Gila region. Winds
will picking up out of the west to southwest at 10-20KTS this
afternoon and not drop off significantly overnight. After 09Z,
these winds will be on the increase across the region with most
areas in the 15-25G40KTS range by 18Z, even stronger in the
Sacramento Mountains where 30-40G60KTS possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1105 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Several systems will be moving through the region over the
upcoming week with windy conditions almost daily through Friday.
RH's will be higher on Tue with Min RH's ranging from 25% east to
40% west and some 50s in the mountains. Winds will be strong with
gusts over 45 mph areawide. Drier air moves in for Wednesday with
RH's falling into the teens with some 20s in the mountains. Winds
remain strong and will continue the Fire Weather Watch. A little
less wind but still at least breezy Thu with RH's in the 20-35%
range. Friday looks similar to Tue with just slightly higher RH's.
Overall there will be a daily threat for critical fire conditions
with the very strong winds even with RH's being at or above
critical values most days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  55  69  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            48  70  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               50  63  37  67 /   0  10   0   0
Alamogordo               49  64  37  65 /   0  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               36  40  27  41 /   0  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences    52  62  36  64 /   0  20   0   0
Silver City              41  49  31  53 /  10  70   0   0
Deming                   48  62  36  66 /  10  20   0   0
Lordsburg                46  56  33  61 /  10  60   0   0
West El Paso Metro       54  68  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                46  70  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             51  77  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               49  63  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   53  72  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             51  66  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           54  66  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            47  64  34  66 /   0  10   0   0
Hatch                    51  64  36  67 /   0  10   0   0
Columbus                 50  65  40  68 /  10  10   0   0
Orogrande                48  65  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  46  55  32  55 /   0  10   0   0
Mescalero                40  51  29  53 /   0  10   0   0
Timberon                 41  50  33  51 /   0  10   0   0
Winston                  40  51  26  55 /  10  30   0   0
Hillsboro                45  57  34  60 /  10  30   0   0
Spaceport                47  62  30  64 /   0  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             39  47  26  53 /  20  70   0   0
Hurley                   42  53  31  57 /  10  60   0   0
Cliff                    41  53  29  56 /  20  80   0  10
Mule Creek               40  51  28  53 /  40  90   0  10
Faywood                  44  54  34  57 /  10  50   0   0
Animas                   48  59  34  64 /  10  50   0   0
Hachita                  47  60  34  64 /  10  30   0   0
Antelope Wells           45  58  37  64 /   0  20   0   0
Cloverdale               43  53  37  57 /  10  40   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County-
     Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
     Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
     BLM/GLZ.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet.

     High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500
     Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet.

&&

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz