Special Weather Statement, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1240 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

 - Today we will see hot temperatures across the region with high
   temperatures well above the triple digit mark across the
   lowlands.

 - For this afternoon and evening we will see the chance for
   thunderstorms west of the Continental Divide which could
   produce areas of blowing dust along Interstate 10 west of
   Deming.

 - We will continue to see lower rain chances this week into the
   weekend, with the best chances for rain in the Gila region and
   along the New Mexico and Arizona border.

 - High temperatures will continue to run above average, with
   triple digit high temperatures common across the lowlands this
   week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Our weather pattern hasn't changed much, so our weather hasn't
changed much. The upper level ridge continues to be centered near
the New Mexico and Arizona border. This position keeps us mostly
dry with high temperatures well above average. The only area to
see a decent chance for rain will be the Gila Region. Like the
last few days, thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon
in the higher terrain of the Gila Wilderness and move to the
southwest. There is a good chance we will see another round of
blowing dust in and around Lordsburg so I have issued a dust
advisory there for this afternoon. For Wednesday, we won't see
much of a change in the upper level ridge location, so our weather
will again be very similar with a chance for thunderstorms and
blowing dust west of the Continental Divide and high temperatures
well above average. The highs on Wednesday will come down a degree
or two so the heat advisory has been limited to the Rio Grande
Valley below El Paso.

For Thursday and Friday the upper level ridge will drift north and
be centered near the Four Corners region. This will allow a little
more moisture in the region. So we will see at least a slight
chance for thunderstorms across the most of the area Thursday and
Friday afternoon and evenings. High temperatures both days will
still run 4 to 7 degrees above average. For the weekend, the upper
level ridge to our north will sweep drier air into the region, so
rain chances will go back down and be mainly limited to the Gila
Region. High temperatures will continue to run near the triple
digit mark both afternoons. Not much change for the start of next
week, so we will continue to see limited afternoon and evening
thunderstorms with high temperatures running near 100F.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

We will see similar weather today, as we saw yesterday. Our
ceilings today and tonight will be unlimited, the exception to
this will be in the Gila Region and near the New Mexico/Arizona
border we we could see some mid and high ceilings associated with
thunderstorms. We will see another afternoon with occasional low
end gusty winds generally from the south. The thunderstorms out
west will likely produce strong outflow boundaries, which will
impact the Lordsburg Airport (KLSB) and could also possible impact
KDMN as well. Thunderstorms and outflow winds will die down by
late evening and we will have light winds through the overnight
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Our moist monsoon season has been struggling and this week won't
be much different. Min RH through this weekend will range from the
mid to upper teens in the lowlands to the 20's in area mountains.
The dry conditions will limit our thunderstorm activity each day.
The best chances for rain each afternoon will be in the Gila
Region. By Thursday we will have enough moisture across the area
to give the whole region at least a slight chance for rain, but
then drier air returns and our rain chances for this weekend will
again be mainly limited to the Gila Region. Each afternoon, any
thunderstorms that do form will be capable of producing strong and
gusty outflow winds. Our winds away from the thunderstorms look to
continue to stay below critical levels through the start of next
week. Vent rates will be good over the next couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  75 102  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            67  98  68  98 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               70  99  71 100 /  10   0  10   0
Alamogordo               71 100  72 100 /   0  10  10  30
Cloudcroft               54  77  54  76 /  10  20  10  70
Truth or Consequences    73  99  72  99 /  40  10  10  10
Silver City              64  92  64  93 /  40  40  20  60
Deming                   69 100  70 101 /  20   0  10  10
Lordsburg                68  97  69  99 /  30  10  20  20
West El Paso Metro       76 101  77 102 /   0   0  10   0
Dell City                70 100  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             74 105  76 105 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               69  95  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                   73 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             73 100  74 101 /   0   0  10   0
White Sands HQ           75 100  76 101 /   0   0  20  10
Jornada Range            71 100  72 100 /  10   0  20  10
Hatch                    72 103  72 103 /  20   0  10  10
Columbus                 73 101  74 102 /  20   0  10  10
Orogrande                70  99  71  99 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                  59  88  59  87 /   0  20  10  50
Mescalero                59  88  59  88 /  10  20  20  70
Timberon                 57  86  57  85 /   0  10  10  50
Winston                  63  91  62  91 /  50  30  10  50
Hillsboro                69  98  69  98 /  30  10  10  20
Spaceport                70  99  70 100 /  20   0  10  10
Lake Roberts             59  91  59  92 /  50  60  20  80
Hurley                   65  95  65  95 /  40  30  30  40
Cliff                    67  98  66  99 /  30  40  30  50
Mule Creek               65  93  64  94 /  30  50  30  60
Faywood                  67  94  67  95 /  30  20  20  30
Animas                   68  98  69  99 /  40   0  40  20
Hachita                  67  97  68  99 /  40  10  30  10
Antelope Wells           67  96  68  98 /  50  10  30  10
Cloverdale               63  90  64  92 /  70  10  50  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El
     Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County-Western El Paso County.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Rio Grande
     Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties.

NM...Blowing Dust Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley.

&&

FORECASTER...15-Brice

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
411 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Flash Flood      1 NW Cliff              32.98N 108.62W
08/01/2026                   Grant              NM   Emergency Mngr

            Delayed Report. County EM shares pictures of
            washed out roads at low water crossings
            along Arena Rd and McCauley Road near Cliff,
            NM.

&&

CAD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
426 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

NMZ401-404-426-042300-
Upper Gila River Valley NM-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley NM-
Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range NM-
426 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY
THROUGH 500 PM MDT...

At 426 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mangas Springs, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mangas Springs, Mangas Valley, Bill Evans Lake, and Gila Middle Box.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3291 10850 3275 10846 3262 10864 3290 10875
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 067DEG 7KT 3284 10853

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DENNHARDT