Special Weather Statement, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1153 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1145 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

 - Triple digit temperatures will return to the lowlands, peaking
   today, but still remaining above normal through the weekend.

 - Thunderstorms over the New Mexico Bootheel and the Gila Region
   this afternoon will produce gusty outflow winds and some
   blowing dust, especially in the New Mexico lowland deserts in
   the afternoon.

 - Additional moisture will bring more gusty thunderstorms to the
   region Thursday, with the focus shifting east of the Rio Grande
   Friday.

 - Drier weather returns for the weekend with continued high
   temperatures in the lowlands near the triple digit mark

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

At the surface we have some moisture slipping up out of Mexico west
of the Rio Grande. Aloft we have a northwest flow with a few
embedded shortwaves. The shortwaves will be able to fire off some
thunderstorms this afternoon. In addition to the thunderstorm
chances, we will have a decent lee side trough developing this
afternoon across southeast Colorado which will help give us breezy
to windy west to northwest winds today. If the thunderstorm outflow
winds are able to align with the ambient surface winds we could
see some locations that get some strong and gusty winds this
afternoon. I would not be surprised to see blowing dust along I-10
east of Las Cruces. And if the wind and thunderstorms weren't
enough our high temperatures today will be well above average,
which would put most lowland locations above the triple digit mark
and locations in and near the Rio Grande below El Paso will be
around 105.

For Thursday we will see less gradient winds and moisture will be
more evenly spread across the whole area, so everyone will have a
chance for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. The threat of strong
outflow winds will also continue on Thursday. By Friday, drier air
will begin to push into the region from the west, so that will limit
our rain chances to locations east of the Rio Grande.

For the weekend, drier air will push into the region at the surface,
while aloft, an elongated ridge will build across northern
Mexico. This pattern will virtually eliminate our rain chances
and it will keep lowland locations in the upper 90's to a few
degrees over 100. For the start of next week, we will still be dry
with high temperatures continuing to creep higher. Some lowland
locations will again be flirting with the 105 readings for high
temperatures early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Winds will be on the increase today so by this afternoon and evening
we will see west winds of 20 to 30 mph. In addition we will have
just enough moisture to give us some thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening, mainly west of the Rio Grande. The main threat is
that the storm motion (to the southeast) will combine with the
gusty west winds winds to give us some very strong outflow winds.
Blowing dust will be possible, again mainly west of the Rio
Grande. Visibilities at KDMN could drop into the IFR range and
visibilities at KLRU and KELP may drop into the MVFR range. We
will have unlimited ceilings this morning, but mid and high clouds
will be on the increase this afternoon and we will likely see
ceilings of BKN120-250 for much of the evening. Thunderstorms and
clouds will dissipate by late evening, but the windy west winds
will continue into the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

We will see near critical fire weather conditions today because of
min RH's running in the low teens in the lowlands to near 20% in
area mountains. Winds will also be on the increase by late morning
into the afternoon hours. We will see west winds of 15 to 25 mph
with stronger gusts later today. Min RH's will continue to run in
the teens in the lowlands for Thursday and Friday and in the 20's in
area mountains. For the weekend, much drier air will move into the
region, so that by Sunday, min RH's in the lowlands will range
from 5 to 7% and in area mountains it will range from 10 to 15%.
We will see a chance for thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly west
of the Rio Grande. These storms will likely create strong outflow
winds which can travel a great distance from the parent
thunderstorms. We will see a chance for thunderstorms area wide
on Thursday and then the thunderstorm chances will be confined to
areas east of the Rio Grande on Friday. We will be dry for this
weekend, but moisture and rain chances try to make a return for
the start of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  79 101  75 101 /  10   0  20   0
Sierra Blanca            70  97  66  96 /  10   0  10  10
Las Cruces               71  98  68  99 /  10  10  10   0
Alamogordo               70  99  68  98 /   0  10  10  10
Cloudcroft               55  78  52  75 /   0  30  10  50
Truth or Consequences    75  99  70  99 /   0  10  10   0
Silver City              63  89  61  91 /  10  20  10   0
Deming                   70  99  68 101 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg                67  95  65  96 /  20   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       77  99  74  99 /  10   0  20   0
Dell City                71 101  67  98 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Hancock             76 102  73 102 /  10   0  20   0
Loma Linda               70  94  67  93 /   0  10  20  10
Fabens                   75 102  72 102 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             73  97  70  98 /  10   0  20   0
White Sands HQ           77 100  74  99 /   0  10  10   0
Jornada Range            69  99  66  99 /   0  10  10   0
Hatch                    70 102  67 102 /  10  10  10   0
Columbus                 74  98  73 100 /  10   0  10   0
Orogrande                68  98  67  97 /   0   0  10   0
Mayhill                  63  89  56  85 /   0  40  10  70
Mescalero                58  88  55  86 /   0  30  10  50
Timberon                 56  85  53  83 /   0  20  10  40
Winston                  63  90  58  90 /   0  30  10  10
Hillsboro                69  95  66  96 /  10  20  10   0
Spaceport                67  99  64  99 /   0  10  10   0
Lake Roberts             58  90  55  92 /  10  40  10  10
Hurley                   65  92  63  94 /  10  10   0   0
Cliff                    65  95  61  98 /  20  20  10   0
Mule Creek               62  91  59  92 /  20  20  10   0
Faywood                  67  92  64  94 /  10  20   0   0
Animas                   64  94  64  96 /  20   0  10   0
Hachita                  65  95  64  96 /  20   0  10   0
Antelope Wells           65  93  65  94 /  10  10  10   0
Cloverdale               60  87  61  89 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El
     Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County.

NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...15-Brice

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
458 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

NMZ411-TXZ418-172330-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley NM-Western El Paso County TX-
458 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DONA ANA AND
NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM MDT...

At 457 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Afton, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Anthony, Vado, Afton, Berino, Chamberino, San Miguel, La Union, La
Mesa, Union Pacific Intermodal Terminal and Mesilla Valley Bosque
State Park.

This advisory also extends the previous one for southern Dona Ana
county until 530 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 10700 3226 10683 3204 10654 3185 10680
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 324DEG 32KT 3209 10683

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
547 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

NMZ411-TXZ418>420-180015-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley NM-
Eastern/Central El Paso County TX-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains TX-
Western El Paso County TX-
547 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL DONA ANA AND
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM MDT...

At 545 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a gust front along a line
extending from 3 miles south of Northeast El Paso to near Santa
Teresa to 13 miles southwest of La Union. Movement was southeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph with any thunderstorm that develops
         along this line.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
West El Paso, Central El Paso, East El Paso, Northeast El Paso,
Santa Teresa, Sunland Park, Canutillo, Westway, Fort Bliss, Vinton,
La Union, Biggs Field, and Fort Bliss.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3173 10638 3176 10645 3175 10649 3178 10653
      3179 10691 3191 10697 3199 10643 3166 10607
      3161 10630
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 327DEG 13KT 3189 10643 3184 10662 3186 10685

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
553 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

NMZ407-411-180045-
Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin NM-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley NM-
553 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LUNA AND
SOUTHWESTERN DONA ANA COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM MDT...

At 552 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a gust front along a line
extending from 13 miles southwest of Afton to 4 miles southwest of
Deming. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph as the gust front moves through.
         There will likely be little if any rain with these wind
         gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Areas of blowing dust south of Deming
         could reduce visibilities briefly to under a mile.

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Deming, Sunshine, Rock Hound State Park, Spring Canyon
State Park, Mount Riley, and Camel Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 10698 3179 10690 3178 10773 3231 10792
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 330DEG 28KT 3193 10710 3224 10782

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
617 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

NMZ411-TXZ418>420-180100-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley NM-
Eastern/Central El Paso County TX-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains TX-
Western El Paso County TX-
617 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL DONA ANA AND EL
PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM MDT...

At 615 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking an outflow boundary along
a line extending from 12 miles southwest of Santa Teresa to 7 miles
southwest of Central El Paso to 3 miles northwest of Far East El
Paso to 9 miles south of McGregor Range Base. Movement was southeast
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible along this boundary
         and with any thunderstorms that develop behind it. Most
         areas will see little to no rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
West El Paso, East El Paso, Central El Paso, Northeast El Paso, Far
East El Paso, Horizon City, Clint, Santa Teresa,  Sunland Park,
Canutillo, San Elizario, Fort Bliss, Socorro, La Union, Sparks, and
Homestead Meadows.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3169 10635 3175 10642 3176 10646 3175 10649
      3178 10653 3178 10686 3185 10693 3192 10681
      3196 10645 3200 10634 3199 10602 3163 10614
      3158 10629
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 305DEG 22KT 3177 10684 3170 10653 3181 10628
3194 10623

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JG

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