Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1102 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1101 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

 - Thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon for the Sacramento
Mountains and Hudspeth County, otherwise dry and hot for the   this
weekend into much of next week.

 - Temperatures unseasonably hot Saturday through next Friday,
   with the hottest period looking to be Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Looks like we are entering a more static weather pattern in the
mid/long term as the mid and upper highs become stacked over
northern Mexico and the Baja. In the short term for today we
continue with the mid level high over southern New Mexico. Most of
the deeper layered moisture that was over the CWA Thursday has
vanished in place this morning. Dewpoints are already lowering, with
30s west mixing out as far east as the RG Valley this afternoon.
Best moisture will remain over Otero/Hudspeth Counties, with
afternoon dewpoints still in the 40s to 50 and PWs around one inch.
Thus isolated afternoon thunderstorms look plausible for the Sacs
and Hudspeth Co, with a few over Hudspeth lasting into early evening.

Aforementioned static pattern will turn up the heat knob after
today. While today will see near 100 El Paso metro area and lower
valley, high temps Saturday through much of next will gradually
warm, with Tue-Fri looking to be the hottest. NBM MOS temps for this
period run from 103-107 across the lowlands. 90th percentile highs
for the same period range from 105-110. Needless to say we are
probably looking at several days of Heat Advisories and could
approach Heat Warnings as we enter the two week window of hottest
temperatures climatologically.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1101 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR conditions through the period. SCT-BKN100 SCT-BKN250. Developing
over the Sac Mtns and Hudspeth County after 19Z...isolated BKN080CB -
TSRA. Surface winds west 8-12 knots but outflow from the eastern
storms will produce east winds gusting to 25-35 knots late afternoon
and evening across Dona Ana, Otero, El Paso, and Hudspeth Counties.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Fire concerns for the week ahead mostly concerned with very dry and
hot conditions developing. Other than isolated thunderstorms
persisting this afternoon over the Sacramento Mtns and Hudspeth
zone, the rest of the forecast period looks dry and unseasonably
hot, with high temps around 5-8 degrees above normal. Fuels will
continue to dry out, though no significant non-thunderstorm winds
are expected. ERCs are forecast to be at or above 90th percentile
by the end of this weekend (a few days later for the Sacramento
Mtns). So, fire conditions to remain elevated through the weekend
and most of next week.

Min RH: Lowlands...12% west to 23% east today, decreasing to 5-10%
all lowlands Saturday through Tuesday. Gila/Black Range...15-25%
today, decreasing to 6-13% Saturday through Tuesday.
Sacramento/Capitan Mtns...25-35% today, decreasing to 8-15% Saturday
through Tuesday. Vent rates fair-good east of the Rio Grande Valley
today, becoming good-very good Saturday through Tuesday; very good-
excellent through Tuesday west of the Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  75 103  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            66  99  68 100 /  20   0   0   0
Las Cruces               68 101  68 101 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               68 101  69 102 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               52  79  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    70 102  69 103 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              60  94  60  93 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   67 102  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                64  98  63  99 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       73 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                67 101  68 104 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             72 104  74 106 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               67  96  69  97 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   71 104  72 104 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             69 101  70 102 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           73 102  74 103 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            65 101  63 102 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    67 104  65 104 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 72 103  73 103 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                66 100  64 101 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  55  91  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                55  90  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 52  87  54  88 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  59  94  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                67  98  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                63 101  62 102 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             53  94  52  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   61  96  61  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    55  98  54  99 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               50  94  49  94 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  64  95  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   64  99  64 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  64  99  64 100 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           65  99  66 100 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               62  93  63  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...17-Hefner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
1253 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

NMZ415-416-191915-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet NM-
1253 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY THROUGH 115
PM MDT...

At 1252 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Silver Lake, moving west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mayhill, Silver Lake, Sixteen Springs, James Canyon, Dry Canyon, and
Cox Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 10550 3294 10549 3287 10547 3290 10567
      3303 10568 3301 10550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 096DEG 9KT 3296 10560

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DH