Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1159 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect much of the area
   today, spreading west to east.

 - Storms today will be capable of severe wind gusts, brief heavy rainfall,
   and plentiful lightning. Patchy blowing dust also possible.

 - Dry southwest flow aloft will keep the area mostly dry Wednesday
   through Saturday. Otero and Hudspeth counties could see
   thunderstorms later in the work week due to dryline intrusions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026

A negatively tilted upper trough will produce showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day progressing west to east. Some
storms will be capable of severe wind gusts (58+ mph) from outflows
and sub-severe hail (<1"). Blowing dust from gusty outflow winds
will also be a concern near dust prone areas. By early tonight,
thunderstorms will still be ongoing but much of the activity will be
east of the Rio Grande. Some lingering activity possible early
Tuesday morning for the Sacramento Mtns and far eastern areas of the
CWA. A much larger upper trough will dig over the PacNW Tuesday
morning with diffluent flow over the area coupled with leftover
moisture will allow for another round of thunderstorms but mostly
over the area mountains like the Gila region, Sacramento Mtns, and
the San Andres.

This upper low will continue to spin over California on Wednesday
keeping the area in diffluent flow but much drier southwest flow
will have pushed in keeping the area dry throughout the day. The
dryline pushes westward into the area Thursday morning but looks
like the best moisture is further to the east. Isolated
thunderstorms possible in far eastern areas of Otero and Hudspeth
counties that afternoon if enough moisture is still present.
Moisture sneaks in again and pushes into the area Friday morning.
Thunderstorms possible again in far eastern areas if enough moisture
can stay in the area.

Wind speeds will be tame throughout the forecast period with some
afternoon breeziness each day around 10-15 mph that relaxes
overnight. Temperatures stay near seasonal to below normal for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026

Thunderstorms will continue to push west to east through the day
today and tonight. Thunderstorms will be capable of very gusty and
erratic outflow winds. In addition, patchy blowing dust possible
from thunderstorm outflows as well as brief heavy rain which could
also cause reductions in visibilities. Storms will start to diminish
after dark and will also be mostly to the east of terminals later
this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026

Generally low fire weather concerns due to wind speeds staying
below critical thresholds each afternoon. Thunderstorms this
afternoon will continue to push eastward. Another round of
thunderstorms possible tomorrow afternoon mostly focusing over the
area mountains. Min RHs tomorrow will be in the single digits in
far southwestern NM with values of 6-10% but much higher min RHs
will be found the further north and east you go into New Mexico.
The Sacramento Mtns will see RHs of around 40-45%. Expect light
southwest to westerly breezes at 5-10 mph. Wednesday through
Saturday will feature dry conditions for much of the area, a
moisture boundary (dryline) will push moisture in from the Great
Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday morning before this boundary
gets shoved eastward throughout the day. The dryline will continue
making a westward push overnight and push eastward each
afternoon. Thursday through Saturday, Otero and Hudspeth counties
will have the best chances to see thunderstorms but elsewhere will
stay dry. Min RHs stay critical each afternoon Wednesday through
Saturday throughout the lowlands (6-12%) and near critical in the
Sacramento Mtns (18-20%).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  61  87  61  90 /  50  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  81  53  85 /  60  10   0   0
Las Cruces               52  85  53  88 /  40   0   0   0
Alamogordo               55  81  55  87 /  80  30  20   0
Cloudcroft               41  59  41  66 /  90  50  20   0
Truth or Consequences    55  82  54  86 /  60  20  20   0
Silver City              50  78  49  82 /  10  10   0   0
Deming                   53  89  54  91 /  20   0   0   0
Lordsburg                55  86  54  87 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       61  86  61  89 /  40   0   0   0
Dell City                55  82  53  89 /  60  50   0   0
Fort Hancock             60  90  59  93 /  70   0   0   0
Loma Linda               55  79  55  84 /  50  10   0   0
Fabens                   58  89  57  92 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             55  85  56  89 /  30   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           61  84  61  88 /  60  20   0   0
Jornada Range            52  83  52  87 /  60  10  10   0
Hatch                    53  87  52  90 /  40  10  10   0
Columbus                 58  89  61  91 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande                55  81  54  86 /  70  20   0   0
Mayhill                  46  69  43  78 /  90  60  20   0
Mescalero                45  70  44  76 /  80  40  20   0
Timberon                 44  67  42  75 /  90  40  10   0
Winston                  43  74  43  81 /  60  50  20   0
Hillsboro                53  81  53  84 /  40  20  10   0
Spaceport                50  82  49  88 /  60  20  20   0
Lake Roberts             44  78  44  81 /  20  10   0   0
Hurley                   48  81  48  83 /  20   0   0   0
Cliff                    51  85  49  89 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek               49  81  48  84 /  10  10   0   0
Faywood                  50  81  50  84 /  20   0   0   0
Animas                   54  86  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  54  86  55  89 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           55  86  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               53  80  52  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...37-Slusher

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