Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS El Paso, TX

719 
WWUS54 KEPZ 072256
SVSEPZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
456 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

NMC035-072306-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-260807T2300Z/
Otero NM-
456 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN OTERO COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 500 PM MDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, small
hail and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3337 10604 3328 10589 3306 10606 3324 10627
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 037DEG 16KT 3317 10613 

$$

NIEVES

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1114 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1114 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

 - Another round of widely scattered thunderstorms through this
   evening, including in the lowlands. Gusty winds and brief heavy
   downpours will be the main threat. Localized flooding is also
   possible, with already-saturated areas in SW New Mexico the
   most favored.

 - A drying trend begins Saturday, with thunderstorm chances
   retreating back to the higher terrain. This will last through
   about Tuesday.

 - High temperatures will continue to run about 5-8 degrees above
   average, with triple digit high temperatures common across the
   lowlands into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Upper high currently near the Four Corners region and will not
move much over the next 4-5 days. The moisture will be moving in
and out during this time. Looking at WV, there is still decent
moisture located over southern NM with drier air sitting in
northern NM into CO which will start moving in for Sat, especially
over eastern CWA. This evening looks similar to yesterday with
storms moving NE to SW with gusty winds, small hail and brief
heavy rain. The 12Z GFS came in drier this evening but then brings
an area of rain through the region between about 03Z-09Z. Looking
at ensembles, the SREF and GEFS also in support of this, so I did
keep some low PoPs going through this time. Overnight lows look
similar to last night with low to mid 70s common.

For Sat, the drier air starts to push in from the NNE. May get a
few storms near the Sacs and then a storm or 2 on the lowlands,
but the Gila still looks like the best area with scattered
coverage. High temperatures will be warming back up to near 100
for the lowlands. Drier air continues to push in Sat night, so any
precip will be ending by sunset. The drier air will allow lows to
drop a few more degrees compared to recent days.

Mon and Tue look to be mirrors of Sun with the focus for any
storms being in the Gila region with just a couple isolated storms
in the Sacs while the lowlands remain dry. The drier low level air
will help temperatures warm up to the upper 90s to around 105
during this time. If any Heat Advisories are needed, it will
remain over the lower RGV.

Going into late next week, the upper high will finally start to
shift into a more favorable monsoonal position off to the east and
we setup a nice deep ESE flow bringing in Gulf moisture and
increased storm chances areawide. Temperatures will also struggle
to get above 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250 through 09Z before skies
gradually become FEW-SCT250 by the end of the period. Isolated to
scattered 3-5SM TSRA will start to develop over the higher terrain
by 21Z and move SW through the evening hours. Wind gusts over
40KTS are possible with these storms. Another round of showers
and/or thunderstorms could move N to S between 03Z-09Z but
confidence in this scenario is not high, especially if
afternoon/evening storms develop as expected. Winds generally NE
to SE AOB 12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Temperatures will remain hot through the period as an upper high
remains near the Four Corners region with RH's slowly falling. At
the current time, it looks like even the lowlands min RHs will
remain above 10%. This aftn/eve looks like the best chance for
widespread showers and thunderstorms before becoming focused
mainly in the Gila region into the middle of next week. Winds
through the period will remain under 15 mph except near
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  74 101  74 102 /  30  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            71  96  69  97 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces               69  98  67  99 /  30   0   0   0
Alamogordo               68  97  68  98 /  20  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               52  75  49  76 /  20  20  10  20
Truth or Consequences    69  98  67  99 /  20   0   0   0
Silver City              65  92  63  93 /  20  20  20  20
Deming                   71  99  69 100 /  30   0   0   0
Lordsburg                70  98  68  99 /  30  10  10   0
West El Paso Metro       74 100  74 101 /  30   0   0   0
Dell City                71  99  68 100 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             72 102  72 103 /  30   0   0   0
Loma Linda               68  93  66  94 /  20  10   0   0
Fabens                   73 102  73 103 /  30  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             72  98  70  99 /  30   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           73  97  72  98 /  20   0   0   0
Jornada Range            67  98  67  99 /  20   0   0   0
Hatch                    70 101  68 102 /  40   0   0   0
Columbus                 72  99  70 100 /  20   0   0   0
Orogrande                69  96  69  97 /  20  10   0   0
Mayhill                  58  86  56  87 /  10  10   0  10
Mescalero                56  86  53  87 /  20  20  10  10
Timberon                 53  84  50  85 /  20  20  10  10
Winston                  60  91  58  92 /  30  10   0  10
Hillsboro                66  96  64  97 /  40   0   0   0
Spaceport                67  97  66  98 /  20   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             55  90  50  91 /  20  30  20  40
Hurley                   64  94  62  95 /  30  10  10  10
Cliff                    62  98  58  99 /  20  40  20  20
Mule Creek               57  94  52  95 /  30  40  10  20
Faywood                  66  94  64  95 /  40  10   0   0
Animas                   69  99  67 100 /  30  10   0   0
Hachita                  69  97  67  98 /  40   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           69  96  67  97 /  20   0   0   0
Cloverdale               65  93  63  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
339 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

NMZ414-415-428-072215-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo NM-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet NM-
339 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OTERO COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM MDT...

At 339 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bent, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail. Heavy rain
         will lead to high flows along Tularosa Creek at and below
         Bent.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tularosa, Alamogordo, Burro Flats, and La Luz.

This includes Highway 54 in New Mexico between mile markers 70 and
83.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3310 10572 3290 10599 3308 10611 3319 10597
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 115DEG 14KT 3314 10588

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TSB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
414 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

NMZ428-072245-
East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo NM-
414 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OTERO COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 414 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Tularosa, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Three Rivers, Tularosa, and Three Rivers Petroglyph Site.

This includes Highway 54 in New Mexico between mile markers 74 and
100.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3339 10594 3300 10597 3299 10633 3339 10633
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 089DEG 17KT 3313 10606

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

NIEVES