Red Flag Warning 13, NWS El Paso, TX

311 
WWUS84 KEPZ 171049
RFWEPZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
449 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND MONDAY...

.An upper level trough carving out over the Central Rockies will
bring increasing southwest winds to the region over the next
couple of days, while Relative Humidity values remain very low,
and fuels remain critically dry. East slope areas are already
seeing windy conditions with winds expected to increase area wide
later this morning into this afternoon, topping out at 20 to 25
MPH with gusts as high as 45 MPH. Winds will stay elevated
overnight tonight for east facing slopes, and increase again for
Monday, once again topping out around 20 to 25 MPH. 

NMZ113-172100-
/O.CON.KEPZ.FW.W.0013.260517T1300Z-260518T0600Z/
/O.CON.KEPZ.FW.A.0010.260518T0600Z-260519T0400Z/
Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ-
449 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT 
MDT TONIGHT FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE SACRAMENTO 
AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 
MONDAY EVENING FOR THE SAME AREA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 113 Capitan and Sacramento 
  Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ. 

* TIMING...Now through Monday Night, especially for east facing
  slopes

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 5 to 8 percent with very poor 
  recovery along north and east facing slopes.

* EXPERIMENTAL RFTI...5 to 6.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

NMZ110>112-TXZ055-172100-
/O.CON.KEPZ.FW.W.0013.260517T1800Z-260518T0600Z/
/O.CON.KEPZ.FW.A.0010.260518T1800Z-260519T0400Z/
Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ-
Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 
El Paso County-
449 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THIS AFTERNOON TO 
MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR 
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF FAR WEST 
TEXAS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
MONDAY EVENING FOR THE SAME AREA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 055 Texas Fire Weather Zone 
  055 El Paso County, Fire Weather Zone 110 Southwest 
  Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ, Fire Weather Zone 111 
  Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ and Fire 
  Weather Zone 112 South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio 
  Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ. 

* TIMING...Red Flag Warning on Sunday from Noon through 
  Midnight. Fire Weather Watch for Monday afternoon and evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph on 
  Sunday, and slightly lower on Monday.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 5 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 90.

* EXPERIMENTAL RFTI...4 to 5.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

TXZ056-172100-
/O.CON.KEPZ.FW.A.0010.260518T1800Z-260519T0400Z/
Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 
Hudspeth County-
449 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR
HUDSPETH COUNTY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 056 Texas Fire Weather Zone 
  056 Hudspeth County. 

* TIMING...Monday early afternoon through evening.

* WINDS...West 16 to 22 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 5 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 93.

* EXPERIMENTAL RFTI...4 to 5.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

BROWN

744 
WWUS84 KEPZ 171803
RFWEPZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1203 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND MONDAY...

.An upper level trough carving out over the Central Rockies will
bring increasing southwest winds to the region over the next
couple of days, while Relative Humidity values remain very low,
and fuels remain critically dry. Winds will continue to increase 
through the afternoon, topping out at 20 to 25 MPH with gusts as 
high as 40 MPH. Winds will stay elevated overnight tonight for 
east and north-facing slopes, but with some variability and
lighter periods, and will increase again for Monday, once again 
topping out around 20 to 25 MPH, with gusts around 45 mph. In 
some areas, winds will be strongest in the mid to late morning 
hours.

NMZ113-180600-
/O.CAN.KEPZ.FW.A.0010.260518T0600Z-260519T0400Z/
/O.EXT.KEPZ.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260519T0500Z/
 Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ-
1203 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND UNTIL
11 PM MONDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY IN THE
SACRAMENTO AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS...

This upgrades the Fire Weather Watch previously in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...New Mexico Fire Weather Zone 113, Capitan and
  Sacramento Mountains, Lincoln NF. 

* TIMING AND WINDS...Southwest winds will continue to increase
  this afternoon, generally topping out at 20 to 25 mph with gusts
  to 40 mph. Winds will diminish for a time this evening, with
  some variability in wind direction along north and east facing
  mountain slopes. Southwest winds will return after Midnight,
  gusting 35 to 45 mph into the early afternoon hours. Winds will
  begin to taper off in the lower elevation in the evening, 
  holding on the longest along east and north facing mountain 
  slopes.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 5 to 8 percent with very poor
  overnight recovery, especially along north and east facing 
  slopes.

* EXPERIMENTAL RFTI...5 to 7 through the period.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...Winds tonight will vary considerably
  with terrain, and may diminish for a time before returning after
  midnight. The areas of most concern will be along north and east
  facing mountain slopes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

TXZ056-171915-
/O.CAN.KEPZ.FW.A.0010.260518T1800Z-260519T0400Z/
 Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 
 Hudspeth County-
1203 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
056...

Winds will generally be strongest over southern New Mexico and
parts of El Paso County on Monday, though a few gusts around 30 
mph will be possible near and north of U.S. Highway 62/180. 
Relative Humidity will also be in the 5 to 8 percent range. While 
fire weather conditions will be elevated in northern Hudspeth 
County on Monday, conditions will fall short of Red Flag Warning 
Criteria. 

$$

NMZ110>112-TXZ055-180600-
/O.UPG.KEPZ.FW.A.0010.260518T1800Z-260519T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KEPZ.FW.W.0014.260518T1500Z-260519T0200Z/
/O.CON.KEPZ.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260518T0600Z/
 Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ-
 Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
 South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
 Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 
 El Paso County-
1203 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO AND EL PASO COUNTY IN TEXAS...

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT MONDAY FROM 9 AM UNTIL 8 PM FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND EL PASO COUNTY IN TEXAS...

This upgrades the Fire Weather Watch previously in effect for
Monday.

* AFFECTED AREA...Southwest and south central New Mexico,
  including the Gila Region and the lowlands. Also, El Paso County
  in Texas. This includes New Mexico Fire Weather Zones 110, 111,
  and 112, and Texas Fire Weather Zone 055.

* TIMING...Red Flag Warning on Sunday through Midnight Sunday
  night. Another Red Flag Warning is in effect Monday from 9 AM
  until 8 PM.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph on Sunday
  afternoon, tapering off in most areas after dark. Winds will
  return with similar speeds Monday morning and early afternoon,
  then taper off to gusts around 30 mph Monday evening.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...5 to 8 percent in the lowlands below 6000
  feet, and 7 to 12 percent in higher elevations, both Sunday and
  Monday.

* EXPERIMENTAL RFTI...4 to 6.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

984 
WWUS84 KEPZ 180604
RFWEPZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1204 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...

.An upper level trough carving out over the Central Rockies will
bring breezy southwest winds to the region today, while Relative 
Humidity values remain very low, and fuels remain critically dry. 
Winds will remain elevated for east slope areas overnight tonight,
increasing area wide through the late morning area wide, topping 
out at 20 to 25 MPH with gusts as high as 50 MPH. In some areas, 
winds will be strongest in the mid to late morning hours.

NMZ110>112-TXZ055-190200-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260518T0600Z/
/O.CON.KEPZ.FW.W.0014.260518T1500Z-260519T0200Z/
Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ-
Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 
El Paso County-
1204 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT
MONDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND EL PASO COUNTY IN TEXAS..


* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 055 Texas Fire Weather Zone 
  055 El Paso County, Fire Weather Zone 110 Southwest 
  Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ, Fire Weather Zone 111 
  Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ and Fire 
  Weather Zone 112 South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio 
  Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ. 

* TIMING...Red Flag Warning is in effect Monday from 9 AM until 8
  PM.

* WINDS..Southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...5 to 8 percent in the lowlands below 6000
  feet, and 7 to 12 percent in higher elevations.

* EXPERIMENTAL RFTI...4 to 6.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NMZ113-190200-
/O.CON.KEPZ.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260519T0500Z/
Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ-
1204 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
STRONG WINDS FOR LOW HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 113 Capitan and Sacramento 
  Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ. 

* TIMING AND WINDS...For east slope areas, winds will continue to
  gust 35 to 45 MPH through the early morning hours this morning
  before increasing area wide this afternoon. Winds will begin to
  taper off in the lower elevation in the evening, holding on the
  longest along east and north facing mountain slopes.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 5 to 8 percent with very poor 
  overnight recovery, especially along north and east facing 
  slopes.

* EXPERIMENTAL RFTI...5 to 7 through the period.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...Winds tonight will vary considerably 
  with terrain, and may diminish for a time before returning 
  after midnight. The areas of most concern will be along north 
  and east facing mountain slopes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

BROWN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
410 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 409 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

 - Continued dry and warm, with breezy to windy afternoons and
   elevated to critical fire conditions each day through Tuesday.

 - Sunday and Monday will see the peak wind speeds and the
   resultant critical fire conditions.

 - Some moisture will push into the eastern areas Thursday and
   Friday with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1028 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

Little to no change in the forecast from previous forecast packages
with warm temperatures and breezy winds through the weekend and into
early next week.

...SATURDAY & SUNDAY...

Broad, longwave trough across western CONUS will overlay increasing
southwesterly flow aloft starting on Saturday. The first lobe of
energy associated with the longwave trough will race across the
Great Basin and Four Corners regions on Saturday. In response to
that, 993mb surface low will develop over SE Colorado with
sufficient surface troughing across New Mexico. Winds will be breezy
during the afternoon at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph across the
area. Temperatures on Saturday will be in the lower 90s across
the desert lowlands.

On Sunday, strong southwest flow aloft will overlay the region. Sub-
990mb surface low will once again develop over SE Colorado with
strong surface troughing across New Mexico. The tightly packed
surface pressure gradient and upper level jet streak overhead will
promote windy conditions across the area. Winds will be out of the
southwest at 20-30 mph sustained with gusts to 40-45 mph possible.

...MONDAY & TUESDAY...

The aforementioned upper level trough will finally trek across the
Great Basin and Central Rockies on Monday. SWerly flow aloft will
continue overlaying the region with surface troughing across New
Mexico. Winds will be breezy once again at 15-25 mph sustained with
gusts to 35 mph possible. Breezy winds continue on Tuesday with
temperatures dropping below 90 degrees.

...REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...

Upper level trough moves east of the region midweek. As it does,
models all agree on a weak low/trough setting up off the Baja coast.
As it does, winds will shift around to the southeast and push the
dryline toward the RGV. Always some question with the initial
westward push with these, but there is decent agreement there will
be some storm chances at least in Hudspeth and Otero counties.
Doesn't look like much cooling except out in the far east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 409 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions through the period with SKC. SCT100 fair wx CU
after 19Z, mainly east of the Rio Grande Valley. Surface winds
west AOB 7 knots this morning, increasing to west 12-17G27 knots
this afternoon. These breezy winds continuing into much of this
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 409 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Continued warm and very dry through Wednesday, with breezy to
windy afternoons each day. The strongest winds will be Sunday and
Monday, where the combination of very low RH and gusty winds will
push fire conditions to critical. Additionally, fuels have been
drying the past week or so, and ERCs are approaching the 90th
percentile. Exacerbating fire weather over the next couple of days
are the poor overnight RH recovery, with max RHs in the 25-35%
range. And to top it off, winds will remain breezy through much of
the night time hours tonight through Monday night. Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Sunday, and will likely be upgraded to
a Red Flag Warning later today. Monday could also eventually see
a Watch or Red Flag Warning.

Min RH: Lowlands 5-8% today and Sunday, increasing to 8-13% Monday
through Wednesday. Mountains 6-12% today and Sunday, increasing to
10-20% Monday through Wednesday. Vent rates very good-excellent
today through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68  91  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            59  88  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               57  87  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               57  87  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               46  67  45  65 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    57  85  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              52  78  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   56  89  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                54  85  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       65  90  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                57  90  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             63  96  61  96 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               60  83  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   63  94  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             59  89  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           67  89  65  86 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            53  87  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    57  89  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 61  90  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                56  86  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  53  79  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                50  77  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 48  75  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  45  78  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                56  83  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                50  85  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             44  78  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   51  82  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    45  84  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               41  80  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  53  81  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   54  85  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  55  84  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           54  85  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               54  78  52  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South
     Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

&&

FORECASTER...17-Hefner