Red Flag Warning 10, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1132 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1127 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

 - Windy, dry, and possibly dusty this afternoon. Critical to
   extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected, and
   Red Flag Warnings are in effect.

 - The weather will be more benign Monday through Wednesday, as we
   sit between upper level low pressure passages. Temperatures
   seasonably warm, conditions continue very dry, winds lighter,
   but still breezy afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Active Spring-like pattern will continue today with very windy
conditions expected areawide.

Upper level longwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will rotate a
lobe of energy extending southward across western CONUS, that will
eventually phase the upper level system over the Great Basin and
Central Rockies regions. This phasing will induce strong lee-side
surface low development over SE Colorado and NE New Mexico. The
~990mb surface low will extend surface troughing across New Mexico
with tightly packed gradient across the area. Thus, windy conditions
will overlay the Borderland Region on Sunday. Winds will be 20-35
mph sustained with gusts to 45-60 mph. On top of the Critical Fire
Weather conditions in place, a Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning
will be in effect across the majority of the forecast area. The High
Wind Warning is in effect for the Sacramento Mountains and the San
Andreas/Organ/Franklin Mountain east slopes, including central and
east El Paso. Again, blowing dust will be likely across the desert
lowlands with a Blowing Dust Advisory in effect through the early
evening timeframe.

Weak upper level troughing across the Great Basin will keep
conditions breezy on Monday and Tuesday. Daily high temperatures
through the middle of next week will range right around to slightly
above the seasonal average.

Thereafter, model guidance and their respected ensemble suites are
coming into more and more agreement, with regard to an upper level
system bringing in increased moisture and precipitation chances to
the area on Thursday and Friday this next week. Confidence remains
low to medium as details need to be ironed out over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Gusty winds will
continue through the afternoon and evening/overnight hours
areawide, sustained at 25-35 knots with gusts to 40-50 knots
possible. An AWW is in effect for KELP due to the winds. Winds
will slowly decrease after sunset. Gusty winds may prevail at KELP
through the overnight due to downsloping off the Franklin
Mountains. Skies will be generally FEW to SCT through the period
with instances of SKC. Blowing dust will be likely through the
afternoon across the desert lowlands, confidence in magnitude is
low but expected reductions to VIS between 19-23Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Critical fire weather conditions expected today with Elevated to
near-Critical fire weather conditions on Monday and Tuesday. Min RH
values today will drop into the teens to low 20s areawide. Very
windy conditions will resume this afternoon and evening with
southwest winds of 25-40 mph sustained with gusts to 50-60
mph. Smoke ventilation rates will be excellent each afternoon.

For the first half of next week, weak upper level troughing over the
Great Basin will promote breezy winds with critical afternoon RH
values on Monday and Tuesday.

Thereafter, model guidance and their respected ensemble suites are
coming into more and more agreement, with regard to an upper level
system bringing in increased moisture and precipitation chances to
the area on Thursday and Friday this next week. Confidence remains
low to medium as details need to be ironed out over the coming days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  56  84  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            51  81  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               45  79  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               48  79  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               34  56  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    46  79  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              38  69  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   45  81  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                41  77  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       55  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                51  83  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             55  89  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               50  76  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   54  86  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             49  81  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           54  81  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            45  79  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    46  81  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 50  85  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                48  79  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  42  69  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                38  67  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 38  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  33  70  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                43  76  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                41  79  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             33  69  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   37  73  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    37  75  39  80 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               36  71  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  40  73  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   43  80  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  43  80  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           45  81  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               42  74  45  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
     056 Hudspeth County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
     Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
     Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
     Western El Paso County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
     Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Salt Basin-Western El Paso
     County.

     Flood Watch until noon MDT today for Western El Paso County.

NM...Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Grant
     County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills-
     Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
     Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest
     Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres
     Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
     and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
     and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila
     NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for East
     Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Otero Mesa-Southeast
     Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
     Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Central Tularosa
     Basin/White Sands.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for West Central
     Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Central
     Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero
     Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern
     Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
     Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500
     Feet.

&&

FORECASTER...38-Rogers

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