Red Flag Warning 1, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
435 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 428 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

 - Windy conditions will prevail through Friday, with a risk of
   blowing dust across southern New Mexico and far west Texas.
   This may cause impact travel conditions by reducing visibility
   on area roadways.

 - Critical fire weather conditions are expected Wednesday as
   strong winds combine with very dry humidity. Outdoor burning is
   discouraged. Any fires that do start will spread rapidly.

 - Drier conditions with near to slightly below normal
   temperatures for the weekend along with lighter winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

A series of waves rotating around a mean Western U.S. trough will
keep winds going on a daily basis through Friday. Models have come
into better agreement for Friday with a nice compromise between
the GFS and EC which results in a day similar to today and Wed.
Winds have picked up across the CWA late this morning with some
dust being reported in the usual areas around KDMN and south of
the border. Today things aren't real unstable and some limited
sun, especially out west. Tomorrow looks similar with another
wave, but with a more favorable placement of the surface low and
we will have plenty of sun. Thinking is dust will be more of an
issue tomorrow, but with some rain today out on the Lordsburg
Playa, it may not be much of an issue out there. Looking like
another day with advisory or near advisory winds for the lowlands
and High Wind Warning in the mountains.

For Thursday, looks like another windy day, but pressure gradient
isn't quite lined up as nicely but with good mixing in the
afternoon will see at least 20-30mph across the area. Temperatures
will drop about 5-10 degrees for Thu. NBM temps looked reasonable,
MET guidance looks too cold, especially with the continued zonal
flow and good amount of for much of the CWA. There looks to be
some precip again in the Gila region similar to today where the
moisture gets squeezed out before getting east of the Divide. Snow
levels will be lower with some snow possible down to around
6000ft.

Friday will be the final wave crossing along the CO/NM border.
This setup looks pretty favorable with the surface low around the
OK/TX Panhandles and good timing of the upper trough. Thinking at
this time is that similar highlights to today may be necessary.

For the weekend, upper ridge starts to shift over the Rockies, but
a back door cold front moves in Sat night. This will just bring in
some east winds and keep temperatures a little below normal.
Temperatures will start to warm nicely early next week with winds
not a real big concern, at least for Mon/Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 428 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Windy conditions will persist the next couple hours or so but
winds are expected to diminish during the overnight hours to
around 10-12KT at terminals. Another windy day expected tomorrow
afternoon with speeds very similar to what we saw today as well as
more BLDU. KELP will see BLDU tomorrow. With similar wind
direction and wind speeds, we can probably bet that KELP will get
down to 1-2SM tomorrow afternoon. KDMN and KLRU will probably see
more BLDU again tomorrow as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1050 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Windy conditions will continue through Friday with daily speeds of
20-35mph, strongest Wed and Fri. RH's will fluctuate through the
period with Wed looking to be the driest with teens over the
lowlands and 20s and 30s in the mountains. ERC's are still not
very high, so will just hold off on upgrading watch for now. RH's
rise to the 20s over the lowlands Thu with a little drier air for
Fri, but looking to remain above 15%. Another chance for rain/snow
in the Gila Thu into early Fri will help keep the fire risk lower
in this area. Drier air moves in for the weekend and early next
week, but winds will be much less of an issue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  43  70  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            39  70  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               34  66  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               35  64  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               28  40  24  38 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    33  64  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              32  52  35  49 /   0   0  20  30
Deming                   32  65  37  61 /   0   0  10  10
Lordsburg                32  62  34  57 /   0   0  10  10
West El Paso Metro       40  69  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                35  69  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             39  74  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               37  63  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   39  72  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             36  67  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           39  67  41  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            31  65  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    33  66  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 37  68  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                34  66  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  32  56  34  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                29  54  27  49 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 30  52  30  48 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  26  54  30  51 /   0   0  10  10
Hillsboro                32  59  34  57 /   0   0  10  10
Spaceport                30  64  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             23  50  31  47 /   0   0  20  30
Hurley                   28  56  34  52 /   0   0  10  20
Cliff                    27  58  32  52 /   0  10  30  30
Mule Creek               25  54  33  49 /   0  20  40  30
Faywood                  32  56  35  53 /   0   0  10  10
Animas                   32  63  36  60 /   0   0  10  10
Hachita                  32  63  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           34  64  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               34  57  35  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for Eastern/Central El
     Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio
     Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
     Salt Basin-Western El Paso County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County-
     Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
     Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Western El Paso County.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County.

NM...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for Central Grant
     County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
     Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Northern
     Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast
     Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
     Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
     Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West
     Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento
     Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
     Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
     BLM/GLZ.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for East
     Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Otero Mesa-Southeast
     Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West
     Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for West Central
     Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

     High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for East Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
     Above 7500 Feet.

     High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500
     Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet.

&&

FORECASTER...37-Slusher