Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1033 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1006 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

 - Widespread showers and thunderstorms again today with localized
   flash flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of
   southern New Mexico.

 - Drier and warmer weather pattern through midweek, lowering
   storm chances. Lowland temperatures will begin reaching triple
   digits Friday through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1006 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Our active monsoon pattern persists for today due to above-normal
moisture and the upper low lingering just to the east. PWs approach
1.5" with SBCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and weak steering flow,
combining to result in a favorable environment for heavy rainfall.
Scattered to widespread storms develop across northern areas around
noon, progressing to the southwest through the afternoon and
evening. Isolated instances of flash flooding and high rain rates
are expected, especially in SW New Mexico and Otero lowlands,
where the 0z HREF focuses the highest rainfall potential. Rain
totals of 2-3" are possible in the heaviest storms according to
the HREF and REFS. The Flood Watch has been expanded to include
the Gila and much of Otero County. Gusty winds to 40 mph and
frequent lightning are additional threats.

The upper disturbance pushes to the west for Tue as the monsoon high
stretches into the Southern Plains. Drier air begins to move into
eastern areas around the high, lowering storm chances. Areas along
and west of the Divide will be favored for convection on Tue with a
low risk of flash flooding. The flood risk out west looks lower
than today. Isolated storms are forecast further east as the
moisture erodes.

The upper high settles over the Southern Plains into the second half
of the week, continuing the drying trend. Enough moisture will be
leftover for isolated mtn storms each afternoon, but dry
conditions are forecast overall. Temperatures stay cool into
midweek before warming to above normal later in the week as high
pressure aloft gains influence. Lowland highs climb to AOA 100 by
the weekend with possible Heat Advisories for the lower RGV and El
Paso. Storm chances may increase a bit next weekend depending on
the location of the monsoon high and any shortwaves/moisture
rotating around it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1006 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Scattered TS develop this afternoon, drifting towards the
terminals from the mtns by the evening. Heavy rain and low CIGs to
MVFR thresholds are possible from the convection today with
amendments based on radar trends. KDMN is most likely to see TS.
Gusts to 30kts possible from outflows, otherwise winds AOB 10kts,
favoring S-SE direction. Convection dissipates overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1006 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through the week. Scattered to
widespread thunderstorms develop this afternoon over area mtns,
drifting southwest through the lowlands into the evening. Abundant
moisture will keep the flood threat around today, especially out
west and in much of Otero County where a Flood Watch is in effect.
The flood threat looks to be somewhat low along the RGV, but still
present. Frequent lightning and gusty outflow winds to 40 mph are
possible. Drier air moves in starting Tue from the east, pushing
storm chances to the west through midweek. Mainly dry conditions
later this week with temperatures rising to above normal. Winds
will be light, generally from the S-SE.

Min RHs range from 35-65% through Tue, falling to 15-35% by Fri.
Vent rates will be poor to good through Tue, then fair to good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  70  89  72  95 /  40  20  30   0
Sierra Blanca            62  86  64  91 /  30  20  10  10
Las Cruces               64  86  66  92 /  50  20  40  10
Alamogordo               64  88  68  93 /  40  40  20  20
Cloudcroft               49  68  51  71 /  50  60  20  60
Truth or Consequences    68  86  69  90 /  50  50  30  10
Silver City              59  80  61  84 /  60  70  60  30
Deming                   63  89  65  94 /  70  40  50  10
Lordsburg                64  85  65  90 /  60  60  50  10
West El Paso Metro       70  88  73  94 /  40  20  30   0
Dell City                66  91  69  96 /  30  20  10   0
Fort Hancock             69  92  72  98 /  50  20  10   0
Loma Linda               63  82  66  88 /  40  20  20  10
Fabens                   68  90  71  96 /  50  20  20   0
Santa Teresa             67  86  69  92 /  40  20  30  10
White Sands HQ           70  88  73  93 /  40  20  30  10
Jornada Range            65  87  68  92 /  40  30  30  10
Hatch                    66  90  67  95 /  40  40  30  20
Columbus                 68  88  69  93 /  70  30  50   0
Orogrande                64  87  67  92 /  40  30  30  10
Mayhill                  54  79  56  82 /  40  40  10  40
Mescalero                53  78  55  81 /  40  70  20  70
Timberon                 51  75  54  80 /  50  40  20  20
Winston                  58  79  59  82 /  50  60  40  50
Hillsboro                64  84  64  88 /  60  60  50  20
Spaceport                63  86  64  91 /  40  40  20  20
Lake Roberts             55  81  56  85 /  60  80  60  50
Hurley                   60  82  61  86 /  60  60  50  20
Cliff                    62  85  63  89 /  50  80  60  40
Mule Creek               60  82  61  86 /  50  80  50  40
Faywood                  62  82  63  86 /  70  60  60  20
Animas                   64  84  65  90 /  70  60  40  10
Hachita                  62  84  63  89 /  70  50  40  10
Antelope Wells           64  82  64  89 /  70  60  50  10
Cloverdale               61  78  62  85 /  70  70  50  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch through this evening for Central Grant County/Silver
     City Area-East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Lowlands
     of the Bootheel-Otero Mesa-Southeast Tularosa Basin-
     Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
     Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
     Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the
     Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Slopes Sacramento
     Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

&&

FORECASTER...39-Aronson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
150 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

NMZ403-404-425-426-202015-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley NM-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley NM-
Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range NM-
Central Grant County/Silver City Area NM-
150 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL GRANT AND NORTH CENTRAL
HIDALGO COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM MDT...

At 149 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of White Signal. This thunderstorm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
White Signal, Tyrone Mine, and Jacks Peak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 10834 3239 10855 3256 10865 3263 10834
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 123DEG 3KT 3249 10847

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BROWN