Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1205 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1204 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

 - A slow moving area of low pressure aloft will keep an active
   monsoon pattern in place over the area on today and Monday.
   Localized torrential downpours and flash flooding will continue
   to be a risk, including the El Paso and Las Cruces areas this
   afternoon and evening.

 - The focus for thunderstorms will try to shift a little west of
   the Rio Grande on Tuesday, then closer to the Arizona border
   for Wednesday.

 - Storm chances plummet from Wednesday,into the weekend, and temperatures
   will begin to increase above normal again. 100s may creep back
   into the lowlands Friday and the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Upper high still located over eastern Colorado and western
Nebraska/Kansas, with ridge extending down to western
Arizona/SoCal. Old cut-off low is pretty ill defined but looks to
still be over the Big Bend region. Plenty of moisture remains for
today (PWs of 1.20-1.40 inches); main issue will be if the
leftover clouds can dissipate. Mountain zones are already mostly
sunny and getting the first CU buildups of the day and the
northern lowlands look to be thinning out, while the clouds closer
to the border remain fairly thick. This could be related to a
possible MCV just southwest of El Paso. Various models (CAM and
hemispheric) have plenty of convection this afternoon and evening.
Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly
over mountains, with scattered evening storms all areas. Main
threat will be heavy rain and flooding. Also, though DCAPEs are
relatively low, severe, damaging winds are possibly near any wet
microbursts.

Monday and Tuesday...old upper low approaches El Paso Monday night
and moves to the Arizona border Tuesday afternoon opening up into
an inverted trough. Still expect plenty of convection Monday, and
with PWs mostly unchanged, flash flooding will still be a threat.
By Tuesday, best storm chances will be west of the RG Valley,
which will still continue with a threat of flash flooding.

Wednesday and Thursday...inverted trough moves out of our area
into Arizona. Any chance of rain will remain over the far western
CWA. PWs will approach 1.00 inch Wednesday and below Thursday, so
heavy rain/flooding threat should be done. Temperatures will
climb back to seasonal levels.

Friday through the weekend...turns dry with maybe just the
slightest of chances of thunderstorms over the mountains.
Temperatures will warm back above normal, with the lowlands back
100-105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Generally VFR with increasing SCT-BKN090 SCT-BKN250. Developing
next few hours over the mountains...BKN-OVC060CB 3-5SM TSRA.
Storms spreading to the lowlands after 21Z. Gusty winds of 40-50
knots possible near storms, along with some heavy rainfall.
Chance of thunderstorms high enough to include at all TAF sites.
Thunderstorms should be mostly finished by 05Z-07Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1204 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

No fire weather issues to be concerned with through  most of this
week, as moisture/humidity remain high through Thursday. Scattered
thunderstorms again this afternoon/evening and again on Monday,
before the chance of rain moves out mostly over areas Deming west
Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will remain slightly cooler
than normal. For Friday into the weekend drier air moves in with
little or no chance of rain. Min RHs lower with lowland RHs
approaching critical. Temperatures will warm back above normal. No
significant non-thunderstorm winds expected.

Min RH: Lowlands 35-45% through Tuesday, then decreasing to 15-25%
by Thursday and Friday. Mountains 50-70% through Tuesday, then
decreasing to 20-35% by Thursday and Friday. Vent rates fair-good
through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  70  88  70  90 /  60  40  60  20
Sierra Blanca            63  82  62  88 /  70  70  40  20
Las Cruces               65  86  64  87 /  40  50  60  40
Alamogordo               65  85  65  88 /  30  70  40  70
Cloudcroft               49  66  49  69 /  30  80  40  80
Truth or Consequences    69  89  68  88 /  20  40  40  70
Silver City              60  81  59  81 /  40  90  60  90
Deming                   65  89  64  90 /  50  60  50  60
Lordsburg                65  87  64  86 /  50  70  70  80
West El Paso Metro       71  86  70  89 /  60  40  60  20
Dell City                67  88  66  92 /  40  60  40  20
Fort Hancock             70  89  69  94 /  70  60  50  30
Loma Linda               64  80  63  83 /  60  60  60  30
Fabens                   69  88  68  92 /  70  40  60  20
Santa Teresa             67  86  66  89 /  60  40  60  20
White Sands HQ           71  87  71  89 /  30  60  60  40
Jornada Range            66  87  66  88 /  20  50  50  60
Hatch                    67  91  66  91 /  20  50  40  60
Columbus                 69  89  68  88 /  60  50  60  50
Orogrande                66  85  65  88 /  40  50  60  30
Mayhill                  54  77  54  80 /  30  70  30  70
Mescalero                53  77  53  79 /  30  90  40  80
Timberon                 51  73  51  76 /  30  70  60  70
Winston                  58  82  58  81 /  40  60  40  80
Hillsboro                64  86  64  86 /  20  60  40  80
Spaceport                64  87  63  88 /  20  50  40  60
Lake Roberts             58  83  57  83 /  40  90  60  90
Hurley                   61  84  60  83 /  40  80  60  80
Cliff                    63  87  63  87 /  40  80  50  90
Mule Creek               59  84  58  84 /  40  90  50  90
Faywood                  62  84  62  83 /  30  80  60  80
Animas                   65  87  64  86 /  60  70  70  80
Hachita                  63  86  63  85 /  60  70  70  70
Antelope Wells           65  84  64  85 /  70  70  70  80
Cloverdale               61  80  61  80 /  50  70  70  80

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...17-Hefner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
328 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

NMZ410-411-427-192200-
Northern Dona Ana County NM-
West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands NM-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley NM-
328 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL DONA ANA COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM MDT...

At 328 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Organ, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Las Cruces, Dona Ana, Organ, Fairacres, Talavera, East Mesa, Picacho,
Portions of Jornada Experimental Range, Northeast Las Cruces, Hill,
Dripping Springs, Aguirre Springs, Portions of Organ Mountains Desert
Peaks National Monument, and Soledad Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 10689 3253 10682 3251 10652 3228 10653
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 280DEG 8KT 3241 10668

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ZA