Flash Flood Warning 21, NWS El Paso, TX

009 
WGUS74 KEPZ 112328
FFSEPZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
528 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

NMC035-112338-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.FF.W.0021.000000T0000Z-260711T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Otero NM-
528 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SALT FIRE BURN SCAR WILL EXPIRE AT 
530 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN OTERO COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 10561 3326 10565 3324 10569 3324 10572
      3329 10568 3331 10566 3331 10565 3331 10564
      3331 10563 3331 10561 3331 10560 3330 10558
      3327 10559

$$

KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1138 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

 - Scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms today and
   tomorrow with gusty outflow winds and blowing dust being the
   main hazards.

 - Lowland high temperatures will be in the upper 90s and low
   triple digits today before cooling slightly into the upper 80s
   and low 90s.

 - Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday and Tuesday with a
   potential for moderate to heavy rainfall near stronger storms
   which could lead to flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

H500 high is beginning to shift northward, centered over the Four
Corners this morning. In our neck of the woods, GFS shows some
convergence at H700, and that is likely what is responsible for a
weakening line of showers across the Central part of our CWA.
Dewpoints are in the lower to mid 50s. Thus, we will see
additional shower and thunderstorm development today, much similar
to yesterday, with scattered coverage in the mountains and west of
the Rio Grande with more isolated lowland coverage east. The main
concern will be strong, damaging downdraft winds, and based on
yesterday, these gusts could reach 70 MPH. With the winds will
come blowing dust, and I have issued a blowing dust advisory for
our southwest lowlands. The UL high will continue its northward
shift tomorrow with an otherwise similar forecast albeit a few
degrees cooler.

Beginning Monday we enter an active pattern. The UL high will
shift into the Northern Plains leaving us with a deep easterly
fetch. This will increase our moisture, cool the column (including
afternoon highs), and lead to an increase in shower and
thunderstorm chances. These chances will be enhanced by small-
scale UL waves that deterministic models have a difficult time
resolving this far out. One notable UL wave, however, looks to
especially enhance our shower and thunderstorm chances. The GFS
and Euro disagree on its evolution, but both models show a closed
low forming over the SE on Monday that will retrograde to the
west, reaching us by mid-week, possibly stalling over us or at
least, slowing to a crawl. Thus, the threat for heavy rain and
flash flooding will increase for the last half of next week, but
we will need to wait on the details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

ISO to SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected this afternoon with cloud bases
050-100. The main concern with any of these storms will be strong,
gusty outflow winds, and outflows are likely to travel far from
storms, likely affecting all sites though confidence on timing is
too low to include in TAFs. More direct impacts (+RA) are more
likely at TCS and DMN with a bit higher confidence for TCS. BLDU
will also be a concern with these outflow winds. Otherwise, it
will be generally FEW-SCT100/250 with winds topping out around 10
knots, from the east or southeast, with a few gusts to 20 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Fire concerns will be decreasing. Today will be our driest and
hottest day with highs about 5 degrees above normal and afternoon
humidity in the mid to upper teens. There will be enough moisture
for additional shower and thunderstorms with similar coverage to
yesterday. Strong winds will be the main concern with any storms.
After today, highs decrease while moisture increases. Min RH
values will be the upper 20s to lower 30s with increasing shower
and thunderstorm chances along with a risk for flash flooding.
Venting today will range very good to excellent but will gradually
decrease through the week ahead. Winds, outside of thunderstorms,
will generally top out around 10 MPH each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76  97  75  92 /  20  20  20  40
Sierra Blanca            66  91  64  86 /  20  20  20  70
Las Cruces               70  95  68  91 /  20  20  20  20
Alamogordo               69  94  68  90 /  20  30  20  60
Cloudcroft               51  72  50  68 /  20  30  30  70
Truth or Consequences    72  94  70  91 /  30  20  40  20
Silver City              65  89  64  86 /  40  30  40  30
Deming                   69  98  68  94 /  20  20  30  20
Lordsburg                68  95  69  92 /  30  20  30  10
West El Paso Metro       77  96  75  91 /  20  20  20  40
Dell City                69  94  68  90 /  20  20  20  40
Fort Hancock             74  98  72  93 /  20  20  30  70
Loma Linda               68  89  66  85 /  20  20  20  40
Fabens                   74  98  72  93 /  20  20  20  50
Santa Teresa             73  95  71  90 /  20  20  20  40
White Sands HQ           76  96  75  92 /  20  20  20  30
Jornada Range            72  95  70  92 /  20  20  20  30
Hatch                    71  98  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
Columbus                 75  98  73  94 /  20  20  20  30
Orogrande                70  94  68  90 /  20  20  20  30
Mayhill                  56  81  54  77 /  20  40  60  60
Mescalero                56  82  54  79 /  20  40  30  70
Timberon                 54  80  52  76 /  20  20  30  60
Winston                  61  87  60  84 /  20  20  30  10
Hillsboro                69  92  66  89 /  40  20  30  30
Spaceport                68  94  66  91 /  20  20  30  30
Lake Roberts             58  89  58  87 /  30  40  40  40
Hurley                   65  92  64  89 /  30  30  40  10
Cliff                    65  94  65  92 /  30  60  40  50
Mule Creek               63  90  62  89 /  30  50  40  50
Faywood                  66  91  65  87 /  30  20  40  20
Animas                   68  95  68  92 /  50  20  30  30
Hachita                  68  95  67  91 /  40  20  20  30
Antelope Wells           68  94  66  89 /  40  20  50  50
Cloverdale               64  90  63  85 /  50  20  60  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Blowing Dust Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Lower
     Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin.

&&

FORECASTER...34-Brown