Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS El Paso, TX

385 
WGUS74 KEPZ 022111
FFSEPZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
311 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

NMC035-022121-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260602T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Otero NM-
311 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 315 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
NORTH CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3312 10564 3308 10559 3306 10555 3297 10561
      3298 10566 3308 10570 3310 10567

$$

ZA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1158 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1144 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

 - A surge of gulf moisture, from the east, residing over the
Borderland Tuesday through Saturday will bring the Borderland region
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best chances will
be Tuesday and Wednesday with a risk of heavy rain and flash
flooding along and east of the Rio Grande. Strong winds and hail
will be possible as well.

 - Beginning Sunday, and lasting into next week, a ridge of high
pressure will settle over the Borderland. This will bring a   warmer
and drier pattern to the region. Lowland areas will   likely see
their first 100 degree highs of the year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 833 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

We started our typically hottest month of the year, June, with
slightly above normal temperatures, and just enough moisture in from
the east, to pair that heat with showers and storms from the Rio
Grande eastward. Tonight, we see a continuation of easterly winds,
importing more Gulf moisture into our area. This means bolstering
dewpoints into the 40s and 50s, and PWATs above 0.75" for all
areas east of the Rio Grande, and at least 0.50" for all but the
Bootheel. That means the daytime warming, coupled with light
surface convergence, and weakening high pressure, with a trough
approaching from the west, will all serve to make for a
destabilized atmosphere, resulting in afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. They should be more widespread, and wetter east of
the Rio.

We repeat the same scenario through the rest of the week, with
persistent low-level moisture flow from the east. This keeps our
atmosphere moist and unstable. Wednesday through Friday, and
likely still on Saturday look to deliver daily round of area wide
showers and thunderstorms, as we sit under a slow passing trough
and disturbance aloft. The best days for storms and potential for
heavy rain look to be Tuesday and Wednesday. Later in the week,
it appears that convective activity may be a bit reduced and more
focused south and back east.

Beginning late Saturday, and continuing Sunday, the upper trough
progresses east, and some semblance of high pressure looks to form
over the region. This will not be a full sweep out of moisture,
but we will trend sharply drier, and more stable, to significantly
reduce storm chances, and limit them more to the high country. In
addition, we are looking at a significant warming trend, with
above normal temperatures by Sunday, and likely triple-digit heat
for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Thunderstorms will continue to pop up this afternoon. Much of the
activity will be over the area mountains and along and east of the
Rio Grande. Biggest threat will be gusty outflow winds with some
storms having the potential to have severe wind gusts (58+ mph).
Storms will have the potential to be efficient rain makers which
could create reductions in visibilities. KELP has the best chances
to see storms like this but recent hi-res models suggest storms
to stay further east of terminals. Models are also suggesting a
large outflow to track east to west around 5-7PM tonight that will
push through KELP, KLRU and even KDMN tonight. Storm activity
will push eastward and out of the area, with storm chances
diminishing

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 528 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

We will see a chance for thunderstorms today, mainly east of the
Rio Grande and in area mountains. The main threat today will be
strong and gusty outflow winds, which come move off a great
distance from the parent thunderstorms. Min RH's today will be
divided along the Rio Grande, with readings in the teens in west
of the river and 20% or higher east of the river. Those higher min
RH's will spread across the whole region for Wednesday and
Thursday. We will be drier for the coming weekend with min RH's in
the teens in the lowlands and in the 20's in area mountains.
Outside of today, winds look to stay well below critical levels.
Vent rates today and Wednesday will range from very good to
excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  91  67  89 /  20  30  40  20
Sierra Blanca            60  84  58  83 /  60  40  50  40
Las Cruces               61  89  59  87 /  10  30  40  20
Alamogordo               61  87  61  86 /  40  30  30  30
Cloudcroft               46  65  45  65 /  60  60  30  70
Truth or Consequences    62  87  62  86 /  40  40  40  30
Silver City              56  83  54  82 /   0  60  30  60
Deming                   62  93  59  91 /   0  40  50  20
Lordsburg                63  90  60  90 /   0  30  40  20
West El Paso Metro       68  89  65  88 /  20  30  40  20
Dell City                60  85  59  86 /  60  30  40  30
Fort Hancock             66  92  64  91 /  40  40  40  30
Loma Linda               61  82  59  81 /  30  30  40  30
Fabens                   65  92  63  91 /  20  40  40  10
Santa Teresa             63  88  61  87 /  10  30  40  20
White Sands HQ           69  88  68  87 /  30  30  40  20
Jornada Range            62  88  60  86 /  20  50  60  20
Hatch                    62  91  61  90 /  20  40  50  20
Columbus                 67  92  63  91 /   0  20  30  20
Orogrande                61  85  60  84 /  40  20  40  20
Mayhill                  51  74  51  75 /  70  60  50  80
Mescalero                50  75  49  75 /  60  60  30  70
Timberon                 48  71  47  71 /  60  40  50  60
Winston                  52  79  51  79 /  20  70  40  50
Hillsboro                61  86  60  84 /  20  60  40  40
Spaceport                58  87  58  86 /  30  50  60  20
Lake Roberts             53  84  51  84 /  10  80  40  70
Hurley                   57  86  54  84 /   0  40  30  50
Cliff                    57  91  56  90 /   0  60  30  50
Mule Creek               55  87  54  86 /   0  50  20  50
Faywood                  59  85  57  83 /  10  40  40  40
Animas                   61  91  59  91 /   0  30  30  20
Hachita                  62  90  58  89 /   0  40  50  20
Antelope Wells           61  91  59  90 /   0  20  30  20
Cloverdale               58  87  56  86 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...37-Slusher

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
1149 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

NMZ414>416-021815-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet NM-
1149 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY
THROUGH 1215 PM MDT...

At 1149 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Silver Lake, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Silver Lake, Elk Silver, Sixteen Springs, Dry Canyon, and James
Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3292 10559 3304 10575 3315 10565 3310 10547
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 202DEG 8KT 3304 10564

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JG