Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
516 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1110 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

 - Today will be the region's best chance to see widespread
   showers and thunderstorms for the next several days. Some
   storms will be severe with hail, gusty winds and heavy rain.

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms again Monday.

 - Relief from the heat through Monday, but triple digit
   temperatures will return midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Active day still looks on schedule. Weak backdoor cool front
pushed through much of the CWA; subtle satellite features show it
out near the Cont Divide at this time where it should become
mostly stationary and mix out. Models shows some minor surface
convergence with it. Feature should also help keep dewpoints in
the upper 40s west and 50s east. Aloft sub-tropical high remains
in place from the Gulf of America to northern Mexico. Short-wave,
possibly near the Four Corners swings down in the northwest flow
along the north margins of the sub-tropical high later today. Also
250mb sub-tropical jet across northern Mexico will have its RRQ
over our area this afternoon. Add in above normal moisture and all
these ingredients add up to scattered thunderstorms for our area.
Diurnal pattern should hold again, with mountain storms
developing by noon, and spreading down to the lowlands after
around 2pm. Several models show somewhat organized line dropping
down to Las Cruces/El Paso area after 5pm, likely associated with
the short-wave. With CAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg, and maybe as high as
2000 J/kg late afternoon in the east, along with good speed shear,
should help produce some strong to severe storms. Large hail
(1.0-1.5 inches) is possible along with wind gusts of 45-60 mph.
With PWs approaching 150-200% of normal today, some heavy rainfall
and flash flooding is also possible. All these threats are highest
from a line from Silver City-Deming and east.

Monday will see some drying as the northwest flow aloft pulls in
slightly drier air. PWs drop to .75-1.00 inches and dewpoints
begin dropping into the 40s northwest. Hence POPs lower on Monday
though all areas still will see a chance of storms.

Tuesday through Thursday...main long wave trough over eastern US
splits the sub-tropical ridge in two, with our area under the east
Pacific high and drier air. Thus other than a few mountain and NM
Bootheel storms each afternoon, little or no chance for rain most
other areas. Heat will be the main story, with lowland high temps
rising back to around 100-105 each day.

Friday through Sunday...sub-tropical ridge will reform over the
Gulf of America, Texas, and New Mexico. Low/mid level flow turns
south/southeast Friday and Saturday with moisture returning along
with a chance of thunderstorms. Next Pacific trough with drier
northwest flow is able to impinge into the ridge Sunday and
should scour out most moisture, and with it, any chance of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 451 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The area west of the continental divide will see widespread
thunderstorm development for the next 4 to 6 hours. Storms should
be over by 06Z with lingering light showers. Skies are mostly
BKN070CB OVC200 with 4-6SM with TSRA continuing to develop near
KTCS, KDMN,and KLRU. Storms are moving in the direction of KELP
and could impact the area by 00Z. Some of these storms could
produce large hail and wind gusts of 45-55 knots. Non-
thunderstorm winds east/southeast 10-15 knots east of the Cont
Divide. West of the divide winds are west 10-15 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Not much in the way of fire weather concerns. High min RHs and
scattered thunderstorms expected today and Monday. Min RHs do
lower to near critical Tue-Thu for the lowlands as high temps
creep back up above normal, so elevated conditions possible again
by mid week.

Min RH: Lowlands...20% west-35% east today and Monday, lowering
to 10-15% Tuesday through Thursday. Gila/Black Range...20-30%
today and Monday, lowering to 10-20% Tuesday through Thursday.
Sacramento/Capitan Mtns...40-50% today and Monday, lowering to
15-25% Tuesday through Thursday. Vent rates fair-good today and
Monday, improving to very good-excellent Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71  93  72  99 /  60  20  30   0
Sierra Blanca            62  87  62  93 /  40  20  30   0
Las Cruces               64  91  63  97 /  60  30  20   0
Alamogordo               65  90  66  97 /  50  20  10   0
Cloudcroft               48  70  49  75 /  50  30  20  10
Truth or Consequences    67  90  66  97 /  60  40  10   0
Silver City              60  89  60  92 /  30  30  20   0
Deming                   64  94  64  99 /  30  20  20   0
Lordsburg                66  96  66  98 /  10  10  10   0
West El Paso Metro       70  91  70  97 /  60  20  30   0
Dell City                63  89  63  95 /  30  30  30   0
Fort Hancock             68  94  69  99 /  60  20  30   0
Loma Linda               63  85  64  90 /  50  30  30   0
Fabens                   67  94  68  99 /  50  20  20   0
Santa Teresa             66  90  65  96 /  50  20  30   0
White Sands HQ           71  91  71  97 /  60  20  20   0
Jornada Range            62  90  63  97 /  60  30  10   0
Hatch                    65  92  64  99 /  50  50  10   0
Columbus                 69  95  69  99 /  50  20  30   0
Orogrande                61  89  63  95 /  50  20  20   0
Mayhill                  53  79  55  86 /  50  60  20  20
Mescalero                52  80  54  86 /  40  50  20   0
Timberon                 50  76  51  82 /  50  40  30  10
Winston                  55  84  56  90 /  30  40  10   0
Hillsboro                63  88  63  94 /  30  50  10  10
Spaceport                59  89  60  96 /  50  40  10   0
Lake Roberts             54  89  54  93 /  20  50  20   0
Hurley                   61  91  61  95 /  30  30  20   0
Cliff                    60  95  60  98 /  10  30  10   0
Mule Creek               54  91  55  94 /  10  30  10  10
Faywood                  62  89  62  94 /  30  50  20   0
Animas                   65  95  65  97 /  20  10  10   0
Hachita                  64  95  64  98 /  30  10  10   0
Antelope Wells           65  94  64  96 /  40  20  20  10
Cloverdale               63  89  61  91 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
515 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

NMZ411-142345-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley NM-
515 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DONA ANA COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM MDT...

At 515 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Afton, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Afton, Mesilla, Fairacres, Aden Crater, Mesilla Valley Bosque State
Park, and Kilbourne Hole.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 10720 3231 10708 3228 10679 3193 10698
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 294DEG 11KT 3222 10704

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ZA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
516 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

NMZ409-427-142345-
Sierra County Lakes NM-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands NM-
516 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SIERRA COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM MDT...

At 516 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 21 miles northeast of Engle, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Salinas Peak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3339 10637 3339 10635 3326 10635 3331 10711
      3348 10713 3348 10638
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 268DEG 11KT 3341 10679

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ZA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
617 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 W Santa Teresa        31.87N 106.70W
06/14/2026  M67 MPH          Dona Ana           NM   NWS Employee

            Thunderstorm Wind gust recorded at WFO El
            Paso.

&&

GNL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
648 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

NMZ414-415-428-150115-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo NM-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet NM-
648 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OTERO COUNTY THROUGH
715 PM MDT...

At 648 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Three Rivers, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Three Rivers, Tularosa, Alamogordo, Burro Flats, La Luz, and Three
Rivers Petroglyph Site.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3339 10620 3339 10591 3295 10587 3295 10634
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 348DEG 11KT 3332 10604

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

ZA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
707 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

TXZ418>420-150130-
Eastern/Central El Paso County TX-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains TX-
Western El Paso County TX-
707 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM MDT...

At 707 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Fort Bliss, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
West El Paso, Central El Paso, East El Paso, Northeast El Paso, Far
East El Paso, Mission Valley, Fort Bliss, Socorro, Sparks, Homestead
Meadows, Biggs Field, Fort Bliss Northeast, and Montana Vista.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3161 10630 3162 10630 3169 10635 3171 10637
      3174 10639 3176 10645 3176 10647 3175 10648
      3175 10649 3177 10652 3198 10640 3195 10608
      3160 10629
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 304DEG 14KT 3186 10640

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

ZA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
715 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

NMZ414-427-428-150145-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo NM-
West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands NM-
715 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OTERO...EAST CENTRAL
SIERRA AND NORTHEASTERN DONA ANA COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM MDT...

At 715 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 9 miles north of Holloman Air Force Base, moving south
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
White Sands National Park, Northrup Landing, Tularosa, Alamogordo, La
Luz, Holloman Air Force Base, Boles Acres, Oliver Lee State Park, and
Lake Lucero.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3315 10639 3311 10595 3271 10590 3275 10649
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 014DEG 30KT 3299 10615

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

ZA