Flash Flood Warning 113, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1202 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1127 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

 - Scattered thunderstorms in the Sacramento Mountains and Black
   Range, isolated thunderstorms in the lowlands this afternoon
   and evening. Continued warm temperatures for today and
   tomorrow.

 - Scattered thunderstorms in the mountains Friday, though a
   possible spotty storm or two in the lowlands.

 - Temperatures cooling slightly into the weekend; conditions
   drying out for Saturday and Sunday before moisture returns
   Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

High temperatures will continue to run 5-10 degrees above average
today as the upper-level ridge persists above southern New Mexico.
Southeasterly flow surrounding the high will bring more moisture
into the region. The mountains will have the best chance (40-60%)
of scattered thunderstorms, but the lowlands will have at least a
mentionable chance (15-25%) of isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon as PWAT values for the lowlands are between 1-1.2" based
on the latest GFS and ECMWF runs. Storm-generated outflow gusts up
to 50 mph are possible in the lowlands this evening and into the
overnight hours.

The latest mesoscale model runs convinced me to put a blanket
mentionable precipitation chance area-wide as PWAT values on
Friday continue to hover around 1.2", in addition to the WPC
having our region under a marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook for
both today and Friday. I expect thunderstorms to mainly be
relegated to the mountains, though a spotty lowland shower or
thunderstorm may form Friday afternoon and evening, especially in
the Gila National Forest and areas around or just west of the
Continental Divide.

As the ridge begins to move east, temperatures will start to cool
down to just under the triple digit mark this weekend. However,
the ridge will elongate and keep conditions in the lowlands dry on
Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will still run 3-7 degrees above
average on both days. As we transition from August to September,
the active tropical Pacific will dictate where the upper-level
ridge will be positioned and how much moisture we will see. Both
the GFS and the ECMWF have a neat moisture plume just along the
Arizona-New Mexico border for Monday, but the extended model runs
are in a disagreement as to where the ridge will be stationed.
The GFS has the ridge over the Appalachian Mountains and the
Tennessee Valley by Wednesday, and has more moisture over the
Borderland, whereas the ECMWF has the ridge elongated over us by
next Wednesday and keeps moisture levels low. As of now, I am more
confident in the ECMWF's prediction, but once the models come
into consensus, that could change.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Conditions for most of the period will be VFR and SCT-BKN 090-150,
but -TSRA between 20Z-02Z could lower visibilities temporarily to
IFR/MVFR. Thunderstorms may contain wind gusts up to 35 kt and
patchy BLDU may occur in these outflows. Winds are expected to
shift from the southeast to the northeast in the overnight hours
after the storms dissipate.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Isolated (20-30% coverage) showers and thunderstorms over
Gila/Lincoln forests this afternoon. Sudden, erratic wind gusts are
likely mid-afternoon due to storm outflows. Gusts up to 50 mph will
be possible, so caution is recommended near fire lines. Recent
dryness also brings a risk of new lightning starts, given the past 7-
10 days of minimal storm coverage. Light rain showers may linger
over Lincoln National Forest through tonight.

Very similar conditions on Friday, with isolated afternoon storms.
Min RH 20-30% over Gila National Forest, higher RH over Lincoln
National Forest due to overnight storms. Light 20-ft winds
through the day, keeping vent rates Fair. Thunderstorm outflow
wind shift will be the main fire weather concern again.

Rain chances will be more limited to western New Mexico over the
weekend and into early next week, which means a dryer trend for
Lincoln National Forest. Scattered storms will continue each day
for Gila National Forest, with a risk for flash flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  75 100  76 100 /  20  20  20   0
Sierra Blanca            67  96  67  95 /  20  20  20   0
Las Cruces               70  99  71  99 /  30  20  20   0
Alamogordo               69  97  71  98 /  20  20  20  10
Cloudcroft               52  73  52  74 /  30  60  20  40
Truth or Consequences    72  98  72  97 /  20  20  20   0
Silver City              65  93  65  92 /  20  20  40  10
Deming                   71 100  71 100 /  20  20  20   0
Lordsburg                72  99  71  99 /  20  20  30   0
West El Paso Metro       77 100  78 100 /  20  20  20   0
Dell City                70  99  71  99 /  20  20  20   0
Fort Hancock             74 103  75 103 /  20  20  20   0
Loma Linda               68  92  69  93 /  20  20  20   0
Fabens                   73 100  73 100 /  20  20  20   0
Santa Teresa             73  99  74  99 /  20  20  20   0
White Sands HQ           74  99  75  99 /  30  20  20   0
Jornada Range            70  98  72  98 /  30  20  20   0
Hatch                    72 102  72 102 /  20  20  20   0
Columbus                 75 101  75 101 /  20  20  20   0
Orogrande                69  97  70  97 /  20  20  20   0
Mayhill                  57  86  58  87 /  30  60  20  40
Mescalero                56  85  57  86 /  30  50  20  30
Timberon                 54  83  55  84 /  20  40  20  10
Winston                  60  90  60  89 /  20  30  30  40
Hillsboro                69  97  69  97 /  20  20  30  10
Spaceport                69  98  70  98 /  20  20  20   0
Lake Roberts             59  91  59  90 /  20  50  50  20
Hurley                   66  95  66  95 /  20  20  30   0
Cliff                    69 100  68  98 /  20  20  50  10
Mule Creek               67  96  65  94 /  20  20  50  10
Faywood                  68  94  68  94 /  20  20  30   0
Animas                   71 100  70  99 /  30  20  30  10
Hachita                  71  98  70  98 /  30  20  20   0
Antelope Wells           69  99  69  98 /  20  20  20   0
Cloverdale               67  94  66  92 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...41-Zotter