Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1141 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1012 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
   in Otero and Hudspeth Counties.

 - Sunday will be the region's best chance to see widespread
   showers and thunderstorms.

 - Relief from the heat this weekend and into next week, triple
   digit temperatures return midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1012 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Moisture in the eastern reaches of our region will produce
isolated showers and thunderstorms for Hudspeth and Otero Counties
this afternoon and evening. Outflow winds may be felt by the
metro area this evening from these thunderstorms. Nonetheless, the
lowlands will see a slight decrease in temperatures for today and
tomorrow as the slowing moisture influx overhead will give a few
spots some triple digit temperatures. There will be just a little
change (small, to say the least) in wind direction as westerly
flow turns southerly, bringing in more moisture for the weekend.

Sunday looks to be an active day in terms of thunderstorms as
moisture deepens overhead (PW values are near 1.25). Ever just
the same, the best chance of thunderstorms will be east of the Rio
Grande. With CAPE values over 1000 J/kg and wind shear 30-40kt,
we could see some severe thunderstorms for Sunday afternoon. This
moisture will also give us some heat relief as temperatures will
dip under the 100-degree mark for Sunday and Monday.

A new area of upper-level high pressure will return to Southern
New Mexico on Tuesday, and ever as before, and ever just as sure, high
pressure will facilitate an increase in temperatures for the
Borderland midweek. Whether any Heat Advisories will be needed for
the lowlands on Wednesday and Thursday remains to be seen.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the entire forecast period. South
winds at 10kt with gusts of 20kt this afternoon. Clouds will range
between SCT and BKN250 with some FEW-SCT090 possible into the
evening as moisture raises the chances of possible -TSRA/SHRA in
Otero and Hudspeth Counties. Any outflows possible with these
storms will gust up to 35kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1012 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Moisture will produce some isolated thunderstorms in Otero and
Hudspeth Counties this evening. Ventilation rates this weekend will
range from Good out east to Excellent out west into tonight as
winds will top out at around 10 mph. Cooler temperatures expected
for this weekend and into Monday before turning hot and dry midweek.

Sunday looks to be the best day for thunderstorms, especially out
east of the Rio Grande. Some may produce lightning and gusty
outflow winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  73 102  76  97 /   0   0  20  30
Sierra Blanca            63  95  66  91 /  30  10  10  50
Las Cruces               68 100  69  96 /   0   0  20  20
Alamogordo               67  98  70  94 /  10   0  20  70
Cloudcroft               50  77  52  70 /  10  20  30  90
Truth or Consequences    70  98  70  93 /   0  20  20  20
Silver City              63  92  62  91 /   0   0  10  20
Deming                   68 103  69 100 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg                66  97  66  97 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       71 100  74  96 /   0   0  20  30
Dell City                64  98  66  91 /  30  10  20  50
Fort Hancock             69 102  72  99 /  20  10  10  30
Loma Linda               64  93  67  87 /  10   0  10  30
Fabens                   68 103  71  99 /  10   0  10  20
Santa Teresa             67  99  70  95 /   0   0  20  20
White Sands HQ           75 100  76  95 /   0  10  20  40
Jornada Range            67  99  68  95 /   0  10  20  40
Hatch                    68 102  69  99 /   0  10  10  10
Columbus                 72 102  75 100 /   0   0  10  10
Orogrande                64  97  67  92 /  10   0  10  40
Mayhill                  55  88  56  76 /  20  50  30  80
Mescalero                54  88  56  79 /  10  20  20  80
Timberon                 51  84  54  77 /  20  20  20  70
Winston                  51  89  57  85 /   0  20  10  50
Hillsboro                67  96  67  92 /   0  20  20  30
Spaceport                65  98  65  94 /   0  20  20  30
Lake Roberts             54  93  57  91 /   0  10  10  30
Hurley                   63  95  64  94 /   0   0   0  20
Cliff                    54  98  59  98 /   0   0  10  10
Mule Creek               48  93  61  93 /   0  10  10   0
Faywood                  64  95  65  92 /   0  10   0  20
Animas                   65  97  65  96 /   0  10  10  10
Hachita                  65  98  66  97 /   0   0  10  10
Antelope Wells           65  97  65  96 /   0  20  20  30
Cloverdale               62  91  61  90 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...41-Zotter

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