Flash Flood Warning 101, NWS El Paso, TX

251 
WGUS74 KEPZ 162309
FFSEPZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
509 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

NMC035-162319-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.FF.W.0101.000000T0000Z-260816T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Otero NM-
509 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTH CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3303 10577 3306 10574 3317 10577 3317 10589
      3313 10590 3304 10583

$$

ZA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1208 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 957 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

 - Storm activity expected to begin in the Sacramento Mountains
   mid-day before reaching the El Paso/Las Cruces area later in
   the afternoon.

 - Marginal risk for excessive rainfall this afternoon/evening,
   and storm-generated outflows with gusty winds up to 40 mph
   could generate blowing dust for the Lowlands.

 - Best storm chances on Monday will be in the Sacramento
   Mountains and Gila National Forest, posing a risk for flash
   flooding in the mountains. Dry, hot weather returns to lowlands
   by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 957 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The combination of an approaching upper-level low from the
southeast, daytime heating, orographic lift, and increased moisture
will provide the setting for another round of afternoon/evening
convection today. A few storms have already developed over both the
Sacramento mountains and the Gila National Forest with the activity
forecast to transition into the El Paso/Las Cruces area later in the
afternoon. Localized flooding remains a concern, as max rainfall
amounts from CAMS range between 1-2 inches, but as to who will get
hit the hardest in the lowlands is still inconclusive at this time.
The Gila National Forest and Sacramento Mountains will see the best
chance for heavy rain this afternoon. Models and soundings are
showing downdraft CAPE values of around 1000J/kg, and are indicating
that thunderstorm generated outflows may produce gusty winds up to
40 mph, which could stir up blowing dust for the lowland deserts
this afternoon.

By Monday, the upper-level low will be sheared off from the
subtropical high, but some low to mid-level moisture will remain
over southern New Mexico. The Gila National Forest will see the best
chance (50-60%) for heavy rain and localized flooding Monday
afternoon, with the Sacramento Mountains coming in second (25-35%).
Southeastern Hudspeth County may also see some isolated
thunderstorms Monday afternoon, while the rest of the lowlands have
a minimal chance for rain. That being said, PWAT values in the
lowlands are still hovering around 1.2-1.3 inches for Monday, so the
threat of localized heavy rain cannot be ruled out.

The ridge starts to return overhead on Tuesday, drying the lowlands
out and raising temperatures back to the triple digit mark mid- to-
late week. Still a chance of some relief later in the week as the
ridge's eastern flank breaks down.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 957 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is in store this
afternoon. While flying conditions will generally be VFR for the
period, the threat of heavy rain and outflow winds from 22Z to 03Z
could lower visibilities to 5SM for all four TAF sites, straddling
the line between VFR and MVFR depending on where thunderstorms
initiate. All TAF sites have a 30% chance for storms, and
thunderstorm activity will dwindle after 03Z, with only high BKN
250 ceilings and light winds remaining overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 957 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Continued rain will keep ERC values on the low side early this
week, but ERC values will increase by midweek. Min RHs will be
above 20% across the region today and tomorrow on the account of
the best thunderstorm chances today being in the Rio Grande Valley
and in the Gila National Forest on Monday. Localized heavy rain
and gusty winds will be the main hazards with these storms. Drier
air will begin to move in on Tuesday. Lowland min RH values will
fall to the teens and stay in the 20s in the mountains.
Ventilation rates today and tomorrow will range from good to very
good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  73  95  73  97 /  30  10  10   0
Sierra Blanca            65  91  65  93 /  10  30  10   0
Las Cruces               67  92  67  95 /  40  10  10   0
Alamogordo               67  92  68  95 /  20  20  10  10
Cloudcroft               50  69  50  72 /  10  40  10  30
Truth or Consequences    69  90  68  93 /  40  20  10   0
Silver City              63  85  63  87 /  30  60  20  20
Deming                   69  94  68  96 /  50  10  10   0
Lordsburg                70  93  70  95 /  20  20  10   0
West El Paso Metro       74  94  74  97 /  30  10  10   0
Dell City                70  95  69  97 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             73  97  73 100 /  10  30  10   0
Loma Linda               67  87  67  90 /  10  20  10   0
Fabens                   72  95  72  97 /  10  10  10   0
Santa Teresa             71  92  71  95 /  30  10  10   0
White Sands HQ           72  92  72  95 /  30  10  10   0
Jornada Range            68  92  68  94 /  40  10  10   0
Hatch                    69  95  68  97 /  40  10  10   0
Columbus                 73  95  72  96 /  30  10  10   0
Orogrande                67  91  67  93 /  20  10  10   0
Mayhill                  55  81  55  85 /  10  20  10  20
Mescalero                54  80  54  82 /  10  40  10  30
Timberon                 53  79  53  82 /  10  20  10  10
Winston                  59  82  58  85 /  50  40  20  10
Hillsboro                66  90  66  92 /  40  20  10  10
Spaceport                67  91  66  93 /  40  20  10   0
Lake Roberts             57  84  56  86 /  30  70  20  40
Hurley                   64  87  63  90 /  40  50  10  10
Cliff                    66  93  65  94 /  20  70  20  10
Mule Creek               64  90  63  90 /  20  60  20  20
Faywood                  65  87  65  89 /  40  30  10   0
Animas                   70  94  69  95 /  10  10  10   0
Hachita                  69  92  68  94 /  30  10  10   0
Antelope Wells           69  93  68  93 /  20  10  20   0
Cloverdale               66  89  65  89 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...41-Zotter