Small Craft Advisory 51, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1254 AM PDT Sun May 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Stratus continues to dominates over the coastal areas.
Above average temperatures persist inland with slight afternoon
thunderstorm chances. A cold front arrives Monday evening bringing
chillier temps. and light to locally moderate rain Tuesday for the
North Coast as well as widespread breezy winds through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Stratus is persistent as coastal eddies recirculate
the marine layer towards the lower elevations along the coastline.
surface flow back into the lower elevation coastal areas. Stratus
has socked in the Pacific coastline from the OR boarder down to San
Fransisco Bay. There are slightly higher chances (40-30%) of coastal
clouds clearing today compared to the previous days. Overcast
conditions return overnight before a low pressure system arrives
Monday evening.

Through Monday, inland areas can expect continued above normal
temperatures with an ever so slight convective potential (10-15%),
especially for the Trinity Horn. Warm surface temperatures and above
normal PWAT values will most likely allow for isolate thermal
updrafts off mountainous terrain to tap into elevated CAPE leading to
possible thunderstorms. Models show these storms beginning around
11am at the earliest and remaining through 7pm for Trinity County
in the Trinity Horn and near the Yolla Bolly Mtns.

.LONG TERM...Monday evening, a cold front will dip into the  area
increasing the likelihood for rain in Del Norte and Humboldt
counties, forcing strong NW winds in its wake, and drastically
decreasing inland temperatures on Tuesday (~70F). Rain totals look
mostly benign with the more extreme models (75th percentile)
showing between 0.25-0.5" in Del Norte Co. and <0.25" for Humboldt
Co. for the duration of the storm. Little to no moisture is
forecasted outside of the far North Coast area. Winds will
increase in the wake of the front for Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoon with gusts up to 30-40mph possible. Details on the
strength of the wind will depend on the path of the front. Global
models are beginning to show more confidence on this path with
each new forecast run. As the models close in on a path, a tighter
range of timing, location, and strength will be available soon. DS

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR conditions along the coast will continue through
the night with minimal clearing during the daylight hours Sunday.
There is moderate confidence of conditions better the MVFR (~60%)
and IFR (~50%) between 18Z-04Z for the North Coast. Southerly winds
will prevail with periodic afternoon gusts at KCEC. Stratus has the
potential (~70% of ceilings <3000ft AGL)to reach KUKI again tonight
as southerly winds and a deep marine layer remain. VFR conditions
will redevelop by 18Z Sunday. A chance (10-15%)of thunderstorms are
possible in over NE Trinity County. DS

&&

.MARINE...Strong northerly winds continue to ease and are mostly
constrained to the outer waters, especially in the far northern
waters in the lee of Cape Blanco. Seas are forecasted to ease
through the day Saturday as winds subside. The small craft advisory
has been extended through 3am Saturday morning as steep waves
continue at the Cape Mendocino buoy. This leaves the steep seas
mostly constrained to the outer waters. Winds and seas continue to
ease Sunday and Monday, with generally light southerly winds
expected.

Global models are increasing the forecast confidence for the storm
path of a weak cold front entering the area Monday evening. Winds
and seas rapidly increase as strong NW winds fill in after the
front.  Expect these to build substantially through the week,
especially for the southern outer waters where there is an 80-100%
probability of gale force winds developing by Tuesday. A NW swell
this weekend will mix with fresh NW short period seas making a
relatively chaotic sea state as combined sea heights build up to
16ft through the coming week. DS

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
     PZZ475.

&&

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png