Gale Watch 18, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
306 PM PDT Thu May 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Showers are expected across the area this afternoon
with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly over the interior
areas. Friday is expected to be dry with gradual clearing skies
although temperatures remain slightly below seasonal normals. A
warming and drying trended is expected for the weekend and peaking
early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Showers are expected across the area this afternoon with a chance
of thunderstorms mainly over the interior.

There is the potential for sneaker waves today due to a long
period swell building into the waters.

A warming and drying trend is expected starting Saturday and
peaking early next week with a minor heat risk.

.Discussion...An upper level low continues to spin over central
California. This is expected to bring another round of showers to
the area this afternoon and evening. These are currently expected
to remain north of Ukiah and Lakeport and generally staying away
from the coast. Surface CAPE is expected to increase to around 500
j/kg this afternoon. There is around 60 kt of deep shear,
however due to the profile there is only around 25kt of effective
shear. So there may be a stronger storm or two. A few showers may
drift over towards the coast in Humboldt and Del Norte counties
later this afternoon and evening, however the surface instability
is expected to be limited by the marine influence and it is
expected to be too stable for any thunder. Tonight and into early
Friday there may be a few showers lingering, especially over the
hills of Humboldt county and over the mountains in eastern
Trinity, far eastern Mendocino and northern Lake counties.
However any showers should be fairly light.

Saturday another shortwave trough is expected to move inland.
Currently it looks like this wave will move through early in the
morning. This may bring some drizzle to the coast in the morning.
Farther inland there is the potential for a thunderstorm or two,
but at this point it looks like these will be moving east and
quickly out of the area if anything does form. This will generally
keep inland temperatures below seasonal normals and in the 70s.
Skies are expected to clear out through the day and winds,
especially at the coast are expected to increase. Currently winds
are expected to peak on Saturday afternoon.

Sunday and into early next week high pressure is expected to build
into the area. This will bring a return to above normal
temperatures and offshore flow. The offshore flow will be
strongest in Humboldt and Del Norte counties and should be enough
to keep skies clear at the coast. Highs are expected to be in the
80s on Sunday warming to around 90 on Monday. Lows will continue
to drop into the 50s each night in the valleys. Tuesday the ridge
axis is expected to slowly move to the east and this may allow a
return of stratus along the coast. Inland temperatures will still
mainly be around 90. Wednesday the flow aloft becomes more zonal
as a shortwave moves by to the north. Any precip associated with
this is expected to remain north of the area. The ensemble
clusters show some disagreement in how deep this trough will be
with one cluster bringing some precip as far south as the southern
Oregon coast. This would keep the temperatures cooler than
currently expected. The majority of the cluster solutions keep the
precip farther north and highs would likely remain in the 80s.
MKK

&&

.AVIATION...Prevailing LIFR ceilings at KCEC, while VFR with OVC
mid- to high-level clouds at KACV and KUKI. A period of IFR still
possible for KCEC, with VCSH approaching for the northeast. A
deepening marine layer and stratus are expected to push onshore
late this afternoon and evening, bringing prevailing IFR to LIFR
conditions with ceilings and visibility in FG/BR for the coastal
terminals through Friday morning. Meanwhile, mid- to high-level
clouds will continue to promote sky obscuration at KUKI. Cloud
layer is expected to gradually lower this evening due to VCSH
rotating around the low pressure system centered over the Sierra
shifting southward and eastward. Expect mainly VFR ceilings with
VCSH this evening.

Friday, conditions are expected to improve to MVFR/VFR Friday
afternoon for the coastal terminals with increasing northerly
winds. Breezy NW winds at 10-15 kt with higher gusts are likely
for the coastal terminals Friday afternoon and early evening,
especially at KCEC. While interior areas will see more gentle
breezes around 10kts.

&&

.MARINE...Light to gentle northern and subsiding seas across the
waters. The current NW long period swell peaked to 7-10 feet at 17
seconds this afternoon. This is expected to gradually subside
this evening; however, combined NW mid and short period swell and
seas will yield in steep waves early Friday morning. Northwesterly
winds are expected to increase over the waters this evening and
through the weekend as the pressure gradient tighten. Expect
moderate to strong breezes on Friday, strengthening to strong to
near gale-force winds this weekend. NBM probability suggest there
is a high chance (70- 90%) of gusts greater than 34kts over the
outer waters this weekend. Gale Watches are in effect for the
outer waters on Saturday/Saturday night. /ZVS

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...The swell will peak today around 8 feet at 16
seconds. Though falling short period waves will somewhat mask the
swell, there will be a moderate risk of sneaker waves on area
beaches. The greatest risk will be in areas of mostly calm winds
on beaches that are exposed to the northwest. /JHW

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ101-103-
     104-109.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for PZZ450-
     455-470-475.

     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night
     for PZZ470.

     Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for PZZ475.

&&

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png