Gale Watch 11, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
100 AM PDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and above average inland temperatures will
persist this week. A weakening front will bring a quick chance
of rainfall and a period of increased southerly winds
Tuesday/Wednesday. Otherwise, dry and warm weather will persist,
with periods of breezy northerly winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...With high pressure in control, above average warmth
continues for the interior, particularly south through Mendocino
and Lake counties. A front will push into the Pacific Northwest
early this week, with a trailing portion clipping Northern
California Tuesday. Precipitable water values will be anomalously
high (200% above normal), but the front will likely struggle to
maintain strength as it descends south against the southern ridge
Tuesday through Wednesday. With high associated IVT values, a
brief period of moderate rainfall will be possible for Del Norte
County, and possibly into northern Humboldt. NBM still holds a
large spread in ensemble totals over a 24 hour period (11AM
Tuesday to 11AM Wednesday).As of now, NBM indicates the high end,
and less likely scenario, for 24 hour rainfall to be between 0.5
to 0.7 inches for Del Norte County. Little to no precipitation is
expected south of Cape Mendocino.

Southerly winds at 925 mb (near 2000 ft) will increase with the
front Tuesday. This may bring a period of breezy conditions to
some of the North Coast and interior ridges. An associated warm
front and downsloping winds will drive coastal temperatures warmer
Tuesday ahead of the precipitation

A strong Pacific high will quickly form Wednesday behind the
frontal system, driving into the Pacific Northwest and Northern
California Thursday. This will strengthen the pressure gradient
and northerly winds, which will turn quite breezy Wednesday and
Thursday. NBM holds a 60 to 70% chance for wind gusts over 20 mph
Wednesday through Thursday for much of the coast, and a 60 to 70%
chance for gusts over 30 mph for the Mendocino coast. The next
hint of a pattern change toward wetter weather does not arrive
until near the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...(06z)...Northerlies have eased off at KCEC and KACV as
of 04z. Northerly bearings have changed to variable with mostly
southerly component at KCEC and easterly at KACV. Tonight, models
show agreement of stratus returning to the North Coast (>80% via
HREF & LAMP models). The spread of cloud coverage will most likely
begin in the Eel River Delta and Humboldt Bay area before spreading
north to KACV and possibly KCEC by the early morning. High
resolution models are split as to whether conditions will dip into
LIFR, so the forecast remains optimistic at IFR conditions through
dawn. Yet, periods of LIFR are possible late into the morning.
Ceilings are forecast to clear again by 18Z (+/- 1hr) or so on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...Conditions will begin to subside and calm going into this
coming work week. Weak northerlies and decaying short period seas
expected Monday. A passing cold front will disrupt to pressure
gradient even more giving gentle to moderate breezes over the waters
through Tuesday. This frontal system will also produce a small,
shorter period NW swell and rain. Marine conditions deteriorate
again come Wednesday afternoon as strong northerly winds return in
the wake of this frontal system. There is high probability (>70% via
NBM) of gale force gusts associated with these winds in the outer
waters from late Wednesday through Friday early morning. Expected
hazardous conditions for this time involving sustained winds up to
35kts and gusts up to 45kts. Come Saturday, winds relax to moderate
northwesterly breezes with relatively calm seas.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ475.

&&

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png