Tornado Warning 23, NWS Kansas City, MO

359 
WWUS53 KEAX 232315
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

MOC005-147-232330-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-260423T2330Z/
Atchison MO-Nodaway MO-
615 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL ATCHISON AND NORTHWESTERN NODAWAY COUNTIES...

At 614 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles east of Tarkio, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington Junction, Clearmont, and Elmo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4040 9502 4039 9532 4052 9531 4058 9512
      4057 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 252DEG 32KT 4046 9524 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

BMW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
302 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong to severe thunderstorms will move into and across the area
  this evening into the early overnight.

  - Initial storms to the west are expected to carry the
    strongest/greatest potential, with gradual weakening as they
    translate east into and across Missouri

  - Any discrete (single) storms will carry an all hazards
    (hail, wind, tornado) risk.

  - Storms expected to congeal into a line through the evening,
    and would transition primary hazards to damaging winds a few
    short lived tornadoes possible along the line

* Active weather pattern looks to continue through the weekend and
  into Monday. This includes multiple chances for strong to severe
  storms.

  - Saturday evening: mainly S and W of the KC Metro

  - Sunday night/overnight: mainly S and W of line from Maryville
    to Jefferson city

  - Monday: Over much of the area, especially east

* Total rainfall accumulations from today through Monday could
  approach 3 to 4 inches across the region. This could yield
  some river and areal flooding concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A lot to unpack with this discussion.

Currently, storms are ongoing or continue to initiate over portions
of IA/NE/KS along an occluded (IA/NE) to dry line (KS/OK) boundary
extending southward out of a surface low in southern Manitoba. With
at least some sunshine along and ahead of this boundary and
concurrent with ongoing low level moisture advection, an unstable
and severe prone environment has prevailed. SPC Mesoanalysis points
to a corridor of MLCAPE >2500 J/kg concurrent with little to no cap,
>35-40 kts effective shear, steep mid-level lapse rates, and
increasing DCAPE values as you work southward from the KS/NE border.
All of this yields an unsurprisingly robust environment for at least
large hail and damaging winds. Modeled hi-res hodographs near the
boundary exhibit limited low level curvature, but forecasts suggests
some improvement as activity translates eastward. In the immediate
term, this suggests very large hail and damaging winds, with a
secondary tornadic threat. All good and well, but we are a few hours
out from activity for much of the forecast... which general
expectations are for more linear segments or clusters to form if not
full blown QLCS. Cloud cover over much of the area today has limited
the degree to which we have been able to destabilize, reflected in
the Mesoanalysis depicting showing ~1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE values and
significant existing capping. So the show will be the linear
segments/QLCS when it arrives vs any notable open warm sector
potential. At that point, expectation remains for primary threat to
be for damaging straight line winds and the potential for some QLCS
tornadoes along segments that are able to best orient themselves
orthogonal to increasing magnitude 0-3km shear vectors. Given more
limited instability over the area, this keeps too the expectation
for greatest magnitude severe over western areas of the CWA and
gradual weakening as it moves eastward. WOFS runs and additional hi-
res guidance continue to regularly depict bowing convective
segments, which bolsters both the straight line wind and QLCS tor
thinking and all but eliminates near-severe to severe hail. SPC Day
1 updates, including introduction of 30 percent wind and additional
Sig 1 hatching generally in line with local thinking, albeit the Sig
1 tor may be a bit far eastward for our liking. That said, there is
always a butt/caveat... and here that is if there can be any
discrete or semi-discrete convection that is able to develop or
maintain into the evening and toward the metro, forecast low level
wind profiles/hodographs suggest an increased tornado threat. So,
keep an eye on storm mode. Linear/QLCS is primarily expected as
everything translates into the area, but a discrete/semi-discrete
storm will carry an elevated tornado threat. Overall, activity moves
out of the KC Metro area by around/after 10/11pm. By that time,
majority of the severe threat for damaging winds and QLCS tornadic
activity likely to be winding down as the general environment
becomes more prohibitive. General/non-severe thunder would continue
into the overnight and across the remainder of the area with true
cold front likely trailing behind by a couple/few hours.

Quiet day Friday, but the active weather pattern continues
into/through the weekend as the broader pattern continues to suggest
a messy Omega Block look setting up over the Northern CONUS into
Canada.

Saturday presents the next potential for storms, even severe, as a
shortwave traverses southern stream and surface low development over
Southern High Plains. Deterministic synoptic guidance broadly
depicts afternoon/evening development in the vicinity of a warm
frontal boundary laid up somewhere in Kansas. Currently S/SW
portions of the area (think KC area and S/SW) may be clipped by this
activity. General expectation would be for initial eastward
progressing then likely diving SE along the depicted CAPE gradients
into the evening. All hazards likely with initial convection, then
toward wind with likely MCS development given the wind and thermal
environments.

More substantial shortwave trough well depicted by synoptic
deterministic guidance moving through the southern stream, and will
provide yet another opportunity for strong/severe storms. A lot has
to transpire before we get to this point, but guidance has many
pieces in place for a potential higher end severe weather day. This
includes significant low level moisture return, potentially
significant MUCAPE depictions, pretty ideal jet placement, nicely
curved hodographs, etc as the shortwave trough and surface low
lift NE. For a few cycles, timing has been questionable, but a
recent slowing has pointed toward the warm sector remaining in
place over at least eastern Missouri into Monday afternoon. That
would allow much of the above to be in place. Any further
slowing and the entirety of Missouri could be of concern Monday
itself. But of note too, the unquestionable lift with this
system may allow for at least strong storms Sunday overnight
that could grow upscale in magnitude Monday morning/afternoon if
they are ongoing. Certainly a time period (Sunday overnight
through Monday) to watch closely as the forecast continues to
zero in on track and timing of this shortwave trough and
attendant surface low.

By Monday, should we realize multiple rounds of showers and storms,
we may be dealing with at least minor or nuisance water issues
within the area. Whether that be river flooding or localized
areal/flash flooding considering it is possible some areas see as
much as 4 inches through this time period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Messy TAF period, at least the initial half, across the area.
Existing MVFR conditions will continue to gradually lift with
diurnal heating/mixing, potentially yielding low VFR prior to
storms moving through. Confidence in storms is effectively
certain, with any lingering uncertainty around exact start/end
times. Have kept with prevailing window of time based on most
recent hi-res guidance, and used TEMPOs within to signal the
more brief heavy rain/low visibility with the primary line of
storms. Conditions return VFR post-storms with the surface
boundary/northerly winds lagging a couple/few hours behind.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0507 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-241007-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0507 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible to likely late this
  afternoon into late evening as a cold front moves through the
  region from west to east.

- Initial storms later this afternoon across far NW Missouri and
  NE and eastern KS may pose a threat for relatively discrete
  storms capable of all severe hazards.

- Storms should congeal into a line of thunderstorm by later
  this evening, with damaging wind gusts becoming the primary
  hazard. However, cannot rule out a couple brief tornadoes.

- Active weather pattern is likely to continue through the
  weekend and into Monday. Strong to severe storms will be
  possible on Sunday afternoon into late Sunday night and again
  on Monday.

- Total rainfall accumulations from today through Monday could
  approach 3 to 4 inches across the region. This could yield
  some flooding concerns.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
606 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     Hail             6 ENE Watson            40.51N 95.53W
04/23/2026  E1.00 Inch       Atchison           MO   Trained Spotter

            Hail is nearly quarter-sized.

&&

CDB