Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
626 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional risk for strong to severe storms this afternoon
  for areas generally southwest of Kansas City to Sedalia line.
  This will depend on how far north a warm front lifts
  northward.

- Widespread showers and storms expected tonight, mainly south
  of a Kirksville to Kansas City line. Widespread rainfall
  amounts of 1.5- 3" are likely, with localized areas exceeding
  3". A flood watch has been issued for this area from 00Z
  tonight through 18Z Thursday.

- There is some potential for severe weather Thursday afternoon,
  mainly east of a Unionville to Boonville line.

- Severe weather continues to look likely Friday afternoon and
  evening across the entire area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

As of 18Z, observations and satellite imagery show the warm front
just south of the forecast area, in the vicinity of Chanute to Fort
Scott to south of Lebanon, MO. This front should slowly lift
northward into Linn Co KS to Clinton, MO by late this afternoon.
This should result in about 1500 to 2000 J/kg of CAPE building into
our extreme southern zones. As a result, the best potential for any
afternoon/ early evening severe weather will be in our far south.
The further north one is from the warm front, the lower the chances
for severe weather this afternoon. Given the CAPE/shear combination,
large hail is the main hazard. But can't rule out some strong winds
and a tornado, especially if a storm can anchor to the warm front as
storm motions should be nearly parallel to the boundary.

For this evening and overnight, confidence is fairly high that
widespread showers and storms will develop as strong ascent develops
over much of the forecast area. Increasingly diffluent flow aloft
with strong low/mid-level moisture transport into and over the warm
front will lead to an increase in coverage of precipitation after
00Z tonight. This looks somewhat similar to the previous night where
convection really increased in coverage from about 02Z-04Z and
persisted through the overnight. Ensemble guidance from the HREF
shows PMM QPF with widespread 1.5-3" amounts south of a Kirksville
to Kansas City line. Within this area there are pockets of 3"+ rain
amounts. NAEFS shows precipitable water values are at or near the
max values in that system's climatology for this time of year over
much of the forecast area. With increased confidence in heavy
rainfall tonight, with some of the area already seeing heavy
rainfall from the previous night, a flood watch has been issued from
00Z Thu / 7 PM tonight through 18Z Thu / 1 PM tomorrow. As
mentioned, this includes areas south of a Kirksville to Kansas City
line.

For Thursday, the new Day 2 convective outlook from SPC brings a
slight risk into our eastern zones. This will be ahead of a cold
front that will be quickly tracking east through the forecast area.
Ahead of the cold front, modest instability will develop, with
SBCAPE values ranging from roughly 1000-1500 J/kg. Favorable deep-
layer shear nearly perpendicular to the front will favor some
discrete cells. Timing for our eastern zones for this round of
potentially severe storms looks like the afternoon hours, ending by
00Z as the front moves east of the area.

For Friday, a very unstable air mass will develop with afternoon
SBCAPE values approaching 3000 J/kg. This will occur in a strongly
sheared environment with shear vectors nearly perpendicular to the
front. This will favor, at least initially, discrete storm
development, with all hazard types possible. However, steep mid-
level lapse rates may support very large hail. Storms should then
quickly congeal into a more linear mode and with 0-3km shear of 30-
40 kts, there may be some embedded mesovortices as the line tracks
east that could lead to enhanced wind gusts/damage and/or
tornadoes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Storms are developing rapidly to the south and west of the KC
terminals early this evening. They should continue to move
northeast into the metro area by 03z, with persistent
showers/storms through the overnight hours. MVFR/IFR
restrictions are likely through much of the night, with east
winds around 10 kt veering to the south and increasing to 15 to
25 kt with higher gusts by 12z. Lingering showers should quickly
exit to the east after 12z, with rapid improvement of
ceilings/visibility to VFR by midday. Winds will continue to
veer to westerly by afternoon, with a slow decrease in
speeds/gusts during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MOZ017-021>025-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ057-060-103>105.

&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0508 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-021008-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0508 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread showers and storms are likely (50 to
  80%) through early Wednesday morning.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected (90 to 100%)
  Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Locally heavy
  rainfall will be possible. Strong to severe storms are
  possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

- Another round of showers and storms are likely (60 to 90%)
  Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Strong to severe
  storms will be possible once again.

- Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely across the
  region by Saturday, with isolated higher amounts possible.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
745 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

MOZ044-053-054-020115-
Bates MO-Johnson MO-Henry MO-
745 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HENRY...NORTHEASTERN
BATES AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 745 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles east of Holden to near Chilhowee to
near Creighton. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Warrensburg, Urich, Creighton, Chilhowee, Centerview, Blairstown,
Ballard, Post Oak, and Hartwell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for west central
Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3834 9421 3846 9411 3846 9409 3845 9407
      3851 9407 3875 9390 3875 9361 3847 9377
      3833 9395
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 231DEG 41KT 3867 9384 3852 9391 3843 9408

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Krull

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
808 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

MOZ046-020145-
Cooper MO-
808 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL COOPER COUNTY THROUGH
845 PM CDT...

At 807 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bunceton, or 9 miles south of Boonville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Boonville and Bunceton.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 102 and
113.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3875 9277 3879 9285 3898 9276 3899 9272
      3898 9270 3898 9263 3897 9259 3894 9251
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 208DEG 22KT 3883 9277

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Krull

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
838 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

KSZ060-MOZ053-020215-
Linn KS-Bates MO-
838 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN LINN AND NORTHWESTERN
BATES COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM CDT...

At 838 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Linn Valley, or 10 miles northeast of Pleasanton,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Pleasanton, Linn Valley, Amsterdam, Amoret, Foster, Merwin,
Passaic, and Worland.

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 130 and 139.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for east central
Kansas...and west central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3825 9488 3839 9467 3839 9461 3843 9461
      3848 9454 3848 9446 3827 9425 3807 9468
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 231DEG 27KT 3829 9457

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Krull

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
841 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

MOZ054-020215-
Henry MO-
841 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HENRY COUNTY THROUGH 915
PM CDT...

At 841 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorms
near Deepwater, or 10 miles southwest of Clinton, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Deepwater, Montrose, Coal, Brownington, Hartwell, La Due,
and Truman Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for west central
Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 9403 3823 9407 3855 9389 3840 9351
      3820 9371
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 208DEG 37KT 3824 9387

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Krull

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
949 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

MOZ045-020315-
Pettis MO-
949 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PETTIS COUNTY
THROUGH 1015 PM CDT...

At 949 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Green Ridge, or near Windsor, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Windsor and Green Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for central and
west central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3851 9351 3862 9351 3872 9331 3853 9328
      3851 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 225DEG 25KT 3857 9344

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Krull