Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Kansas City, MO

078 
WWUS53 KEAX 032014
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
314 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MOC005-087-032045-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-260403T2045Z/
Atchison MO-Holt MO-
314 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR ATCHISON AND NORTH CENTRAL HOLT COUNTIES...

At 314 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fairfax, or 7
miles southwest of Tarkio, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Tarkio, Rock Port, Fairfax, Blanchard, Westboro, and Corning.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 96 and 110.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northwestern
Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 9520 4048 9520 4048 9518 4027 9518
      4022 9547 4025 9549 4025 9552 4027 9556
      4030 9556 4032 9561 4031 9566 4032 9566
      4034 9562 4035 9562 4058 9537
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 239DEG 30KT 4034 9545 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CDB

879 
WWUS53 KEAX 032020
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
320 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MOC005-087-032045-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-260403T2045Z/
Atchison MO-Holt MO-
320 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN ATCHISON AND NORTH CENTRAL HOLT COUNTIES...

At 320 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fairfax, or
near Tarkio, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Tarkio, Fairfax, Westboro, and Corning.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 96 and 108.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northwestern
Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 9520 4048 9520 4048 9518 4027 9518
      4022 9547 4025 9549 4025 9552 4027 9556
      4030 9556 4031 9560 4053 9537
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 236DEG 28KT 4037 9542 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CDB

214 
WWUS53 KEAX 032033
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
333 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MOC005-087-032045-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-260403T2045Z/
Atchison MO-Holt MO-
333 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN ATCHISON AND NORTH CENTRAL HOLT COUNTIES...

At 333 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fairfax, or 10
miles south of Tarkio, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Tarkio, Fairfax, and Corning.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 96 and 106.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northwestern
Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 9520 4048 9520 4048 9518 4027 9518
      4022 9547 4025 9549 4025 9552 4027 9556
      4030 9556 4050 9538
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 221DEG 29KT 4030 9542 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CDB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1235 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe Storms Friday Late Afternoon Through Evening

- Additional Flooding Possible With Heavy Rainfall

- Cooler Over the Weekend, Start of Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Surface low and associated mid-level short-wave trough has moved
into the Great Lakes Region, and the trailing cold front has pushed
southeastward toward the Interstate 44 corridor. Low-level stratus
and lingering moisture primarily across Iowa and northern Missouri
will result in low stratus and fog potential mainly across our
northern zones this evening. The front should stay outside of the
forecast for most of the evening. Elevated convection may develop
along the front closer to Interstate 44 as the low-level jet
intensifies this evening. This activity is expected to miss our
southern and southeastern zones.

The quiet weather conditions will be short-lived, a stronger mid-
level trough and strong vorticity maxima, currently working across
the Intermountain West eventually ejects out of the Front Range and
lifts into the Plains. Stronger dCVA over the past 18-24 hours
developing another strong surface cyclone over the Front Range and
High Plains, and this will begin to push eastward. Surface pressure
falls expand eastward mainly along the stalled cold front by Friday
morning. Low-level flow turns southerly and will push the boundary
back northward as a warm front. Dewpoints have not drastically
decreased on the backside of this boundary, and continued moisture
transport throughout Friday will foster dewpoint temperatures likely
into the mid and upper 60s in the warm sector of this system. Given
the setup, would expect strong isentropic ascent, leading to
increasing cloud cover, showers, and if any kind of  mid-level
perturbation moves through, perhaps elevated convection. The 00z
HRRR hints at isolated to scattered elevated shower/storm activity
on the cool side of the effective warm front starting late morning
and continuing through the early afternoon. While some small hail
could be possible with this, most of this activity should be weak.
Heading into the afternoon, most CAMs are in decent agreement on the
warm front surging into central Iowa, with the tighter moisture
gradient positioned in southern Iowa. The WAA and theta-e transport
will provide MUCAPE pushing upwards of 2500 J/kg through the
afternoon. A big question for afternoon instability will be if cloud
cover breaks apart at any point. Given the amount of moisture still
present even on the cool side of the boundary, it may take a notable
compact ridge axis or some other kind of sharp but short-lived shot
of subsidence to clear things out. With the moisture content on the
boundary layer and even up through about 850mb, boundary layer
mixing may not be as robust throughout the warm sector if dense
cloud cover remains in place. RAP and HRRR soundings so far for
Friday afternoon, while higher in CAPE values, are not overly
impressive with lapse rates. The other thermodynamic factor, will be
the trend of mid-level lapse rates. Most model guidance depicts the
H5 short-wave trough closing up, with a lot of the mid-level
vorticity being wrapped around over the Central Plains, while the
surface low still moves eastward. As a result, H5 cooling above the
warm-sector will not be as prominent immediately above the surface
warm sector as it would be if the wave remained open and negatively
titled. This disconnect in kinematics is the complicating factor for
Friday's forecast because it lowers confidence in storm mode
evolution through the event.

Starting with the mid to late afternoon time frame, when most of the
forecast area is well within the warm sector, temperatures in the
mid to upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. With the
right combination of surface pressure falls and convergence
especially near the warm front, there may be some lift for discrete
activity between 19-21z, probably some where along or north of Hwy.
36. Current CAM guidance does not depict anything robust initiating
on the warm side of this boundary, and a look at model soundings
near the warm front show that even with lower LCLs, the level of
free convection for parcels is still fairly high. In order to get
anything during the afternoon, we may need some kind of mid-level
vort maxima to provide that extra lift, which will be hard to come
by if the H5 wave closes off. Now if the forcing is there to get an
updraft, and storm motion can keep it from crossing to the cool
side, the low-level shear environment is quite impressive, with 0-
1km bulk shear values upward of 40 kts and low-level SRH values
pushing above 150 m^2/s^2, and the structure of the model hodographs
do show strong cyclonic curvature, especially in the axis of surface
pressure falls where surface winds back through the afternoon. This
could help to sustain a low-level mesocyclone. However, the deep
layer shear over the warm sector could be a problem. The stronger H5
height gradient and associated jet streak is shaping up to be well
displaced northwest of the surface warm sector. So while raw values
of 0-6km bulk shear are showing 40+ kts, most of that is occurring
within the first 0-2km. Current HRRR sounding hodographs actually
show backing between 3-6km, as the mid-level flow is not
substantially faster than the lower-level flow. Initial cells that
would move with the mean wind may actually experience some
suppression. For deep convection to be fully supported by the wind
shear, a left-mover would have the best kinematic support for
sustaining development, but that would also be more likely to take
its motion across the boundary to the cool side. Therefore, if
initiation happens near the warm front in the afternoon and deviates
left, will have potential to produce larger hail, perhaps above 2
inches. Limiting factor would be the lapse rates as currently
progged, but just enough CAPE through the hail growth zone may still
be present. The low-level SRH and hodograph shape would suggest some
tornado potential with discrete convection on the warm side of the
boundary as low-level mesocyclone development could be favored,
especially with any rightward motion. However, unsure if the deeper
layer shear would be able to sustain such an updraft for a long
enough period that allow the low-level meso to persist. Any discrete
convection on the warm side would also present a wind threat,
especially if a supercell mode could be achieved. This afternoon
development is the lower confident part of the forecast with
uncertainty if things will even initiate, and then will it have what
it needs to be sustained. Watching the wind profile and tracking
areas of clearing will be the main mesoanalysis task through Friday
morning and early afternoon.

Later into the afternoon and evening, surface cyclone moves
eastward, and may deepen some but the main dCVA displaced northwest
may prevent further deepening by the evening hours. Attention will
then turn to the cold front and increasing convergence along it, and
the potential for a triple point if the cyclone begins to occlude.
This would likely develop in north-central Missouri. Deep layer
shear should increase some through the evening in close proximity to
the cold front, though a lot of it may be confined behind the cold
front as the closed H5 low moves eastward, allowing for better mid-
level flow heading into the evening (compared to the afternoon).
While convergence increases, there may a brief window between 22z-
00z where a discrete updraft could take on a supercellular mode with
its inflow taking advantage of the warm-sector, presenting all
severe hazards. Larger hail should be supported with better lift,
and perhaps better mid-level lapse rates. Mid-level shear should
also be better that would not suppress updraft development in the
same way that the warm front setup could earlier in the day (along
with favorable storm motion toward the warm sector). Low-level SRH
values will still be high and low-level hodographs could still be
curved cyclonically enough to support a tornado threat with a
discrete storm, especially along a triple point if surface winds can
remain backed. As of right now, this corridor would probably be
along or north of Hwy. 36 if a triple point develops. Along the rest
of the cold front and remainder of the warm sector south of Hwy. 36,
surface winds may veer, which would reduce SRH quite a bit. As the
low-level jet then cranks up, most of the cold front should fill in,
eventually leading to an MCS and QLCS of some kind. With decent 0-
3km bulk shear, a well organized QLCS may not be out of the
question, but just depends on how rapidly the upscale growth occurs.
As this develops, damaging winds become the primary threat. If a
strong QLCS mode is realized, the kinematics may be there to support
mesovortex generation along the leading edge of the line. This may
require notable surges and rear-inflow jets to develop for this to
be achieved though. Most CAMs are fairly progressive with this
front, having the system past Hwy. 63 in Central Missouri between 04-
05z. We will see if this changes with subsequent model runs,
especially with that mid-level wave closing off, that may delay the
propagation of the cold front.

With the amount of moisture transport across the warm sector, PWATs
are progged to reach around 1.75 inches along portions of the
expected QLCS or MCS and with enough MUCAPE into evening, may lead
to efficient rainfall rates. This system though is expected to be
more progressive than the Wednesday system though, which should help
to limit training storms. But, for our eastern and southeastern
forecast zones that are still seeing lingering flooding, may be
augmented once again even if event total QPF is no more than 2
inches. At this point, have not issued a flood watch yet, but as 06z
guidance comes in, a flood watch may become necessary for the
southeastern third or even two-thirds of the forecast area. River
and creeks throughout central Missouri may continue to see rises as
this system passes through.

After this system passes into the Great Lakes Region Saturday
morning, amplified ridge over the western CONUS will provide mid-
level northwesterly flow across our area through much of the
weekend, providing an AVA regime and surface anticyclone
development. This will keep temperatures cooler through Monday. Weak
perturbation through the flow may provide some shower activity into
portions of Monday and Tuesday. By the middle of next week, surface
high pressure moves eastward, low-level returns southerly and should
push temperatures back into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MVFR/VFR ceilings areawide, currently impacting terminals. Gusty
southerly winds have begun across terminals due to the passage
of the warm front, with the front gradually making its way
further north in the next few hours. TSRA expected to impact
terminals as early as 22z, exiting around 1z with the passage of
the cold front. Behind the front, winds will turn
northwesterly, and gradually calm through the evening. Ceilings
will begin to rise, prompting VFR conditions through the
remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...SPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0509 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-041009-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0509 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe Storms Friday Late Afternoon Through Evening

- Additional Flooding Possible With Heavy Rainfall

- Cooler Over the Weekend, Start of Next Week

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
243 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MOZ001-032015-
Atchison MO-
243 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ATCHISON COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 242 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Peru, or 9 miles northeast of Auburn, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Atchison County.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 120 and 123.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northwestern
Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 9577 4058 9555 4047 9569 4049 9568
      4051 9569 4052 9566 4055 9566 4056 9567
      4056 9569 4052 9571 4052 9575 4054 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 215DEG 35KT 4052 9577

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CDB