Severe Thunderstorm Warning 307, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1248 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop along and south of I-70
  later Sunday evening. The strongest storms would be capable of
  producing damaging winds, large hail (2"+ possible, mainly south
  of the Kansas City metro), and potentially an isolated tornado.
  Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding.

* Lingering showers and storms early Monday. Low-end severe threat
  Monday morning for damaging winds and hail as MCS continues to
  progress through Missouri. Heavy rainfall could also be a hazard.

* Hot and humid Monday with heat indices in the 90s. Apparent
  temperatures to be reflective of actual air temperatures in
  the 80s starting Tuesday, providing a few days of relief.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 853 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Evening/overnight storm potential tonight into early Monday morning
remains the most pressing aspect of the forecast period. Over the
course of the day, instability has grown appreciably, with recent
SPC mesoanalysis indicating a 3500-6000 J/kg SBCAPE gradient from
the northern portions of the Kansas City metro into the far southern
portions of the CWA. ACARS soundings out of KMCI continue to depict
a stout capping inversion with multiple failed attempts at
convection in eastern Kansas observed via satellite. A diffuse
outflow boundary extending from central Kansas into south-central
Missouri has been the primary area of focus for these initiation
attempts, but as of about 800 PM CDT, only one remotely successful
updraft has been able to form in Douglas County, KS. Isolated
development will continue to be possible over the next 1-2 hours,
but more widespread convection will likely have to wait for improved
mid/upper-level support, namely in the form of CVA as a shortwave
moves through the flow aloft. Initially, storms are expected to be
discrete and capable of all severe hazards. High resolution guidance
points to over 4000 J/kg MUCAPE and around 1000 J/kg of CAPE in the
HGZ, with values nearing 1500 J/kg south of I-70. In this
environment, discrete storms could produce very large hail. Despite
poor low-level flow overall, the potential for cell and boundary
interactions in such a highly unstable environment supports an
isolated tornado threat. PWATs > 1.5" across the area provides a
heightened flood/flash flood threat overnight, mainly along and
south of I-70 where the greatest moisture convergence is colocated
with the strongest updraft potential. Soils across southern and
central Missouri have reduced infiltration capacity due to earlier
rainfall, further heightening flood concerns in these locales. As a
weak low-level jet protrudes into the area tonight, storms will be
encouraged to grow upscale as they move into central Missouri. With
quite a bit of instability persisting into the overnight hours, the
severe threat will continue through much of the early morning as
storms progress east. Flood/flash food concerns will also remain
with potential training as the event progresses.

Around sunrise, the main storm system is expected to have exited the
eastern fringes of the CWA, though some lingering precipitation is
possible. Light winds, clearing sky conditions, and small dewpoint
depressions could allow patchy fog to develop in the early morning
hours, especially further north and west behind the MCS. Surface
dewpoints look to return to the low/mid 70s, leading to a muggy
first day of June. Northerly and easterly surface flow that sets in
behind the surface low with ridging building overhead. This will
provide some reprieve as the area loses its connection to Gulf
moisture, keeping uncomfortable heat indices at bay until late in
the week when surface flow becomes increasingly southerly once again
as an upper/mid level trough approaches the region on Thursday. This
system will bring another active period of weather to the area
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Scattered thunderstorms have rapidly developed within the
corridor of terminals over the last half hour. Additional
convection off to the west is anticipated to progress eastward
in the coming hours as well. TEMPOs for TSRA have been included
in the first few hours of the TAF for the three southernmost
terminals as storms continue to move through the area. In heavy
downpours, visibilities may approach or fall below IFR
thresholds but such reductions are expected to be shortlived.
Showers and storms will continue to move through Missouri
overnight with variable winds and improving conditions behind
showers and storms. Around sunrise, some patchy fog may develop
across portions of Kansas and Missouri with light
northerly/northeasterly winds for the remainder of the TAF
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Macko
AVIATION...Macko

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0505 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-011005-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0505 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Line of showers and storms to move through the region
  overnight/early Sunday morning.

    - Best chances (50-70%) along and north of I-70.

    - Locally heavy rainfall is the primary hazard, with low-end
      potential for damaging winds and hail.

* Showers and storms possible again Sunday. A conditional severe
  threat exists, mainly in the vicinity of and south/southeast of
  the Kansas City metro.

* Hot and humid through Monday, with heat indices expected to reach
  the 90s south of US-36.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
238 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 AM     Hail             2 SW Lexington          39.16N 93.89W
06/01/2026  E1.00 Inch       Lafayette          MO   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

OM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
244 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 AM     Flash Flood      1 NNE Avondale          39.17N 94.54W
06/01/2026                   Clay               MO   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Water rescue near the on ramp of northbound
            I-35 and NE Chouteau Trafficway.

&&

OM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
247 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NE Riverside          39.18N 94.61W
06/01/2026                   Platte             MO   Emergency Mngr

            Large tree blocking the roadway. Report
            relayed via EM. Time estimated from radar.

&&

OM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
251 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 AM     Flash Flood      1 SE Riverside          39.17N 94.60W
06/01/2026                   Clay               MO   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Water rescue near MO Hwy 9 and NW Briarcliff
            Pkwy.

&&

OM