River Flood Warning 177, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
610 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Residual shower/storm activity persists through this morning.
  Additional chances for showers/storms this afternoon/evening,
  generally south of I-70, with primary hazards being heavy rain
  and strong winds.

- Additional chances for precipitation through the end of the
  week.

- Hot and humid conditions building through the weekend into
  early next week, with heat indices near the triple digits.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms has persisted generally south
of US-36, following along a pronounced LLJ and synoptic-scale
diffluence in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere. Amidst ~40 kts
of effective bulk shear and 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE persisting
after sunset, these storms have remained robust enough for damaging
winds and hail to impact portions of the CWA. Through the remainder
of the overnight , the severe threat will begin to diminish with
decreasing CAPE and effective shear as the LLJ shifts off towards
the south and east. However, another caveat of tonight's activity
has been very efficient rainfall rates out of thunderstorms, with
enhanced moisture convergence along a stationary boundary draped
across northwestern Missouri and PWATs around 2-2.5 inches. Although
activity has become more spaced out through the night, thinking for
the remainder of the overnight period is that, while the severe
threat will continue diminishing, the hydrological threat will
continue through tomorrow morning with any convection that fires
along the LLJ and broad shortwave trough in the low/mid-levels.

Through the late morning, the orientation of the LLJ will shift more
southwesterly/northeasterly as it progresses into central MO, with
residual precipitation following along its nose. High pressure
situated over the northern Plains building into northern MO may lead
to some patchy fog through the morning, but confidence is not high
enough for widespread dense fog development under residual cloud
cover from tonight's activity. Dry air dredging in behind the
retreating shortwave will help dry out the forecast into tomorrow
for parts of the area, with temperatures residing in the 80s.
However, south of I-70, a continued severe threat exists with warm
advection and higher dewpoints enhancing instability during the day.
The greatest hazards with this severe threat would be heavy rainfall
and strong winds, with varied solutions on exact coverage/timing of
thunderstorms during the day. The overall synoptic pattern looks to
remain similar through the end of the week, with the forecast area
residing along the periphery of an upper-level ridge situated over
the southwestern CONUS and an upper-level trough over the Hudson
Bay. Under this setup, additional disturbances in the flow will lead
to continued PoPs through Friday evening. Going into the weekend,
the upper-level ridge over the southwestern CONUS looks to build
more over the forecast area, pushing the upper-level disturbances
and subsequent PoPs more towards the north and prevailing low-level
winds out of the south. With this adjustment, temperatures will
climb into the 90s by early next week, with coincident rising
dewpoints helping to bring apparent temperatures into the 90s and
even the triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Showers and storms will wind down over the next 1-2 hours with
MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings building southward this morning.
These low clouds should linger through much of the morning hours
before conditions improve to VFR this afternoon. Winds will be
light through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ013>015-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

&&

DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0505 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-071005-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0505 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Residual shower/storm activity persists through this morning.
  Additional chances for showers/storms this afternoon/evening,
  generally south of I-70, with primary hazards being heavy rain
  and strong winds.

- Additional chances for precipitation through the end of the
  week.

- Hot and humid conditions building through the weekend into
  early next week, with heat indices near the triple digits.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
856 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW Raymore           38.84N 94.47W
08/06/2026                   Cass               MO   Public

            Docks flipped over on Creekmoor Lake. Large
            playground set thrown from yard onto nearby
            street.

&&

BMW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
857 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WSW Lake Winnebago    38.82N 94.40W
08/06/2026                   Cass               MO   Public

            Large tree limbs snapped near intersection
            of Ward and Gore.

&&

BMW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
902 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Belton                  38.81N 94.53W
08/05/2026                   Cass               MO   Emergency Mngr

            Large tree snapped near downtown Belton.

&&

BMW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
919 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Belton              38.83N 94.53W
08/05/2026                   Cass               MO   Emergency Mngr

            Wall panels removed at QT Distribution
            Warehouse in Belton.

&&

BMW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
921 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WSW Unionville        40.47N 93.01W
08/05/2026                   Putnam             MO   Emergency Mngr

            Significant damage sustained across
            Unionville. Large trees downed and power
            poles/lines downed. Many roads are
            impassable due to downed trees. Outbuildings
            destroyed. Power is out.

&&

BMW

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