River Flood Warning 170, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
627 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms are expected to move in from the west this
  afternoon. Some storms could be strong to severe with the
  primary hazards being damaging winds and large hail.

- These showers and storms will also be capable of producing
  heavy rain. Flash flooding will be possible. A Flood Watch
  remains in effect through Friday morning.

- Hot and humid weather engulfs the region starting Sunday and
  lingers into early next week. Heat indicies increase to
  100-110. An Extreme Heat Warning may be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A stalled out boundary is draped across west to east across the
metro this afternoon. Satellite and radar trends have pointed
to some destabilization along this boundary with some more
aggravated cu development. Coverage remains spotty but the
environment can be categorized as a moderate instability with
MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with some weak bulk shear around 30 kts.
Some stronger storms could develop in these conditions and may
produce some gusty winds and small hail. Chances for storms
increase later this afternoon and through the evening hours as a
shortwave advances in from the west with a surface low lock in
step with it. Presently, this shortwave is tied to an MCS out in
central KS. High res guidance has this complex sliding across
our southern counties this afternoon. However, there may be
additional development along the stalled boundary. The
shortwaves arrival will also bring with it some better synoptic
forcing and an increase to our bulk shear values. This
combination may lead to strong to severe storms developing with
the main threat being damaging winds and large hail. One
pitfall for this forecast is the large area of cirrus blow off
from the MCS out west. This could act to help stabilize the
environment and lead to more of a stratiform rain event with
some embedded lighting, as opposed to some of the severe
weather that has been mentioned.

This evening, fueled by a enhancing low level jet with speeds
up to 50 kts these storms are expected to persist through the
overnight hours as the low slowly tracks across MO. The current
forecasted path of the low would lead to the heaviest rainfall
axis being across our southern half of our counties where our
Flood Watch is still in effect. The latest HREF also supports
some local flooding remains possible with the LPMM highlighting
a few swaths in excess of 2".

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Friday morning the low pressure is projected to be over northeast MO
leading to some lingering showers and storms. By mid day this system
will have shifted out of the region with cooler northwesterly winds
streaming across the area. The relief will be brief as upper level
riding nudges in from the west bringing some warmer temperatures.
But dewpoints should be lower leading to less muggy conditions then
the previous day.

Temperatures really ramp up as we head into the weekend. A deepening
trough entering the west coast leads to strong ridging over central
CONUS. A surface low developing out of the Northern Plains will
further enhance the southerly flow across the region leading to a
hot and muggy period. Heat indicies are expected to climb into the
triple digits by Sunday and linger into next week. The long nature
of the heat coupled with poor recovery at night may warrant a
Extreme Heat Warning.

Rain chances through the weekend are not overly favorable. The best
chance looks to be initially on Saturday afternoon as a warm
front lifts north. But poor agreement amongst guidance is
keeping chances low around 20-30%. The rest of the period has to
contend with strong warm air aloft keeping the atmosphere
capped.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Widespread shower activity has developed this evening, with the
earlier thunderstorms becoming fewer and farther between over the
last two hours. VFR conditions currently in place at all terminals,
though area observations of 3-4 miles have been observed underneath
some of the healthier showers. MVFR ceilings are expected to spread
north into the area this evening by 03z, decreasing further into IFR
territory by 07z and holding into the afternoon hours tomorrow.
Shower activity is expected to continue through most of the
overnight hours, with a window for a narrow band thunderstorms to
develop between 07-10z (30% chance) that could push ceilings and
visibilities into LIFR territory (20% chance).

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Friday morning for MOZ028>032-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ057-060-103>105.

&&

SHORT TERM...Britt
LONG TERM...Britt
AVIATION...Petersen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
506 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-261015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
506 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more
information on potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more
information on potential weather hazards.

 .KEY MESSAGES...

 - Potent disturbance will bring rounds of heavy rains and storms
  this afternoon and tonight

 - A Flood Watch is in effect for much of the area along and
  south of I-70 from this afternoon into early Friday morning

 - Increasing heat and humidity with little to no rain chances (20%
   or less) this weekend into next week. Heat indices rise to 100 to
   110 Sunday through Wednesday.

Sharp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
304 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MOZ029-037-252045-
Jackson MO-Clay MO-
304 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CLAY AND
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 304 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Independence, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kansas City, Independence, Blue Springs, Sugar Creek, Courtney,
Sibley, River Bend, and Birmingham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3906 9447 3917 9448 3924 9422 3904 9420
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 264DEG 13KT 3910 9437

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
311 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

KSZ104-MOZ028-252045-
Wyandotte KS-Platte MO-
311 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WYANDOTTE AND
SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 311 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kansas City, or near Parkville, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Parkville, Riverside, Weatherby Lake, Kansas City, Lake Waukomis,
Platte Woods, Northmoor, Houston Lake, Wolcott, Pomeroy, Waldron,
Beverly Hills, and Maywood.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 3 and 8.
 Interstate 635 between mile markers 6 and 12.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 15 and 23.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3924 9482 3925 9460 3918 9460 3912 9463
      3913 9483 3920 9483 3921 9478 3921 9483
      3923 9483
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 175DEG 7KT 3916 9474

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
335 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MOZ039-040-045-046-252100-
Saline MO-Pettis MO-Cooper MO-Howard MO-
335 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PETTIS...
SOUTHWESTERN HOWARD...SOUTHERN SALINE AND COOPER COUNTIES THROUGH 400
PM CDT...

At 334 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Marshall to near Pilot
Grove to 7 miles northwest of Jamestown. Movement was north at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Boonville, New Franklin, Pilot Grove, Prairie Home, Nelson,
Blackwater, Franklin, Wooldridge, and Lamine.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 69 and
114.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3888 9252 3876 9258 3882 9292 3897 9337
      3915 9333 3903 9280 3898 9257 3893 9251
      3891 9250
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 196DEG 8KT 3902 9326 3891 9288 3883 9258

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wesely