Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Kansas City, MO

720 
WGUS73 KEAX 141329
FFSEAX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
829 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

MOC061-063-075-081-141830-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.W.0064.000000T0000Z-260914T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Daviess MO-DeKalb MO-Gentry MO-Harrison MO-
829 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS, SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON, NORTHERN
DEKALB AND SOUTHERN GENTRY COUNTIES...

At 829 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain have tracked north and east of the warned area. Between 2 and 4
inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to
begin shortly due to runoff from earlier rainfall.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  King City, Pattonsburg, Mcfall and Ford City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4004 9461 4016 9461 4017 9443 4018 9413
      4018 9401 4002 9401 3999 9419 3999 9460

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

SAW

508 
WGUS73 KEAX 141601
FFSEAX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1101 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

MOC061-063-075-081-141611-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.W.0064.000000T0000Z-260914T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Daviess MO-DeKalb MO-Gentry MO-Harrison MO-
1101 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS,
SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON, NORTHERN DEKALB AND SOUTHERN GENTRY
COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 4004 9461 4016 9461 4017 9443 4018 9413
      4018 9401 4002 9401 3999 9419 3999 9460

$$

SAW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
613 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of storms will bring a flooding risk,
  especially north of the Missouri River, through the middle to
  later part of the work week.

- Round 1 - Monday Morning: The severe weather threat from
  storms this morning is low, but there may be some hail to 1"
  in the strongest cells across northwestern and northern
  Missouri. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

- Round 2 - Monday Afternoon - Evening: There is a Slight Risk
  in far northwestern Missouri. If storms develop/ move into far
  northwestern Missouri, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
  are possible.

- Round 3 - Tuesday Afternoon - Overnight: There is a Marginal
  Risk for severe storms for Tuesday afternoon into the evening
  hours. Strong to damaging wind gusts and hail are the main
  hazards. Storms become more widespread overnight with heavy
  rainfall likely across northern Missouri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Very active weather is expected over the first half of the work week
with multiple rounds of storms anticipated. For this morning, as of
writing this paragraph at 06Z, convective initiation is underway in
southeastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas. This is developing in
an area of strong isentropic ascent noted from the 310K to 315K
surfaces. The threat of severe weather is low with this activity due
to only modest and elevated instability. But there may be cells that
occasionally push to near severe thresholds with hail being the main
hazard. Additionally, locally heavy rain, which will act to prime
the area for subsequent events, is likely with this activity as
ample moisture is transported into the area.

This initial activity will lift northeast through the morning hours,
leading into the next round of storms for the afternoon and evening
hours. It's uncertain if storms will be able to develop/ overcome
the convective inhibition from the morning activity, but if they
do they will primarily affect Nebraska and Iowa. However, the
risk may bleed into northwestern Missouri with time and with
MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range with potentially 30-35kts of
deep-layer shear, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes look
possible. This activity should slide south through the
overnight hours as its cold pool builds south, but will be
losing its strength as it does. But, that boundary may become
the focus for additional storms Tuesday afternoon.

An unseasonably moist airmass will build into the area south of this
boundary, with dewpoints in the lower 70s expected. Strong daytime
heating of this moist airmass will lead to potentially substantial
CAPE, possibly in excess of 2000 J/kg. With stronger mid to upper-
level flow still north of the area, deep-layer shear looks weaker.
Forecast soundings, particularly from the NAM, suggest deep mixing/
steep lapse rates will occur in the lowest 5000 ft of the
atmosphere. If storms are able to develop in this environment
damaging downbursts winds are the most likely hazard. Further north,
into the overnight hours, convection should become more widespread,
though with a more limited severe weather threat. But its this
activity that will pose the greatest risk for flooding rainfall,
with widespread 1-3" rainfall amounts across northern Missouri
possible from just this round of storms. Locally heavier
amounts are likely depending on where storms do develop and
eventually train given flow that is essentially parallel to the
boundary.

Additionally, with the hot and humid conditions anticipated, a
heat advisory may be needed for areas south of I-70 Tuesday
afternoon.

And in the 50 minutes it took to write the remainder of this,
storms have blossomed in southeastern Nebraska and northeastern
Kansas, and are moving in northwestern Missouri. So I'll be
cutting this discussion a little short.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the end of the period. Storms
ongoing across northern Missouri this morning expected weaken
and dissipate after sunrise. Maintained a brief PROB30 at KSTJ
for -TSRA to account for any storm developing behind the main
cluster. A warm front is forecast to move through E KS and W MO
over the course of the day...easterly winds this morning will
give way to southeasterly then gusty southerly winds by 18Z
today. Storms may be able to develop late this afternoon across
far NW MO...as the evening and overnight progresses, storm
chances will expand further south so have gone ahead and
included a PROB30 for -TSRA at KSTJ from 08Z to 11Z tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Macko

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0501 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151001-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0501 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of storms will bring a flooding risk,
  especially north of the Missouri River, through the middle to
  later part of the work week.

- Round 1 - Monday Morning: The severe weather threat from
  storms this morning is low, but there may be some hail to 1"
  in the strongest cells across northwestern and northern
  Missouri. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

- Round 2 - Monday Afternoon - Evening: There is a Slight Risk
  in far northwestern Missouri. If storms develop/ move into far
  northwestern Missouri, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
  are possible.

- Round 3 - Tuesday Afternoon - Overnight: There is a Marginal
  Risk for severe storms for Tuesday afternoon into the evening
  hours. Strong to damaging wind gusts and hail are the main
  hazards. Storms become more widespread overnight with heavy
  rainfall likely across northern Missouri.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
250 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

KSZ102-MOZ011-140815-
Doniphan KS-Holt MO-
250 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN DONIPHAN AND
CENTRAL HOLT COUNTIES THROUGH 315 AM CDT...

At 249 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
White Cloud, or 9 miles northwest of Highland, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mound City, Oregon, Forest City, White Cloud, Big Lake, Fortescue,
Iowa Point, and Iowa Reservation of Kansas and Nebraska.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 78 and 83.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4003 9540 4013 9523 3997 9508 3987 9534
      4000 9534 4000 9531 4003 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 0749Z 233DEG 12KT 3998 9533

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CDB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
324 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

KSZ102-MOZ011-140900-
Doniphan KS-Holt MO-
324 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL DONIPHAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTIES THROUGH 400 AM CDT...

At 324 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oregon, or 9 miles northeast of Highland, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Oregon, Forest City, Iowa Point, and Fanning.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 69 and 75.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3983 9516 3998 9528 4007 9507 3991 9500
      3990 9502 3987 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 0824Z 240DEG 12KT 3995 9514

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CDB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
440 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

MOZ012-141015-
Andrew MO-
440 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ANDREW COUNTY THROUGH
515 AM CDT...

At 439 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fillmore, or 7 miles northwest of Savannah, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Savannah, Fillmore, Bolckow, and Rosendale.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 62 and 66.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3998 9471 3992 9496 3997 9500 4000 9501
      4003 9500 4013 9483
TIME...MOT...LOC 0939Z 239DEG 16KT 4000 9494

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CDB