Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Kansas City, MO

089 
WGUS73 KEAX 311311
FFSEAX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
811 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

KSC091-103-209-311321-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FF.W.0056.000000T0000Z-260731T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Johnson KS-Leavenworth KS-Wyandotte KS-
811 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 815 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LEAVENWORTH
AND WYANDOTTE COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...

The Flash Flood Warning has been converted to a Flood Warning. Please
refer to that bulletin for more information.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 9518 3919 9477 3917 9474 3918 9468
      3918 9466 3916 9466 3916 9459 3912 9461
      3878 9461 3878 9506 3898 9506 3898 9508
      3896 9508 3895 9509 3898 9516 3897 9517
      3896 9519

$$

CMS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
248 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early Morning Storms and Showers

- New Storm Development Possible Friday Afternoon (East of
  Interstate 35)

- Cooler Temperatures This Weekend With Cold Front

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Positively tilted H5 trough is present across portions of the
northern Plains and lower Missouri River Valley with two distinct
vort maxima. Both of these have provided enough lift and dCVA to
deepen a surface cyclone across much of the Central Plains. Surface
pressure falls have extended eastward into the lower Missouri River
Valley. Weak thermal boundary has aided in the development of
organized convection, along with enough deep layer shear that is
present. Instability has been weakening during the overnight hours but
there may still be enough to keep storm activity going through 09-
10z timeframe, then should start to see any organized activity break
apart. A few sporadic wind gusts to around 60-70 MPH may remain
possible before sunrise, as we have seen some organization when the
line became oriented perpendicular to the 0-3km bulk shear vector.
The first vort maxima and instability axis should exit the forecast
area to the east between 15-16z late this morning. Second vort
maxima will start moving across the eastern Plains this afternoon,
with another shot of dCVA reinforcing surface pressure falls across
the region and development of surface cyclone. A stronger cold front
will develop with this surface feature and track eastward across the
area through this afternoon and evening. Depending on how long
convective debris lingers from the morning, we may see further
destabilization east of Interstate 35 which may allow for stronger
storms to develop, and perhaps isolated severe storms with 60-70 MPH
winds and a few hail stones that could be around quarter sized or
slightly larger. As the front pushes eastward, this activity should
exit the forecast area after 01z if it develops in central Missouri
this afternoon and evening. With respect to temperatures today, the
cloud cover and morning convective complex adds some uncertainty,
but the continued WAA should allow temperatures to easily hit the
upper 80s again, with some lower 90s possible especially south of US
Highway 50. During the early afternoon, dewpoint temperatures will
probably hit the mid 70s for areas south. Our southern zones may see
an hour or two of heat index values right around 105F. However,
given the current radar and satellite trends, confidence was not
high enough to issue a Heat Advisory at this time, but we will
continue to monitor temperature and dewpoint trends. If there is
rapid clearing on the backside of exiting convection, a heat
headline may become needed south of Interstate 70.

The cold front passage will bring relief to the heat and humidity
across the area through the weekend, with high temperatures in the
lower to mid 80s, and dewpoint temperatures in the lower to mid 60s.
That northwesterly flow will end Sunday evening. Amplified mid-
level ridge then builds over the western CONUS but pushes H5 height
rises into the Central CONUS through the middle of next week. Low-
level flow will turn more southerly which will begin to push
temperatures back into the lower 90s by the middle of the next week.
Forecast will remain mostly dry, with slight chances entering the
forecast into Wednesday and Thursday next week as a disturbance
attempts to drop southeastward from the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A line of storms is still likely to move through the terminals
between 07-11Z. Reductions in ceilings and visibility can be
expected as the storms impact each terminal. Winds may also gust
25-35kts in the strongest storms. This line moves east of the
terminals in the predawn hours with VFR conditions in their
wake. During the afternoon, a cold front will move through,
shifting winds to the west and then northwest and increasing
wind speeds and gusts. Wind gusts of 25kts look likely from the
northwest. An area of MVFR ceilings also is likely to move into
the area behind the cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0505 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-011005-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0505 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early Morning Storms and Showers

- New Storm Development Possible Friday Afternoon (East of
  Interstate 35)

- Cooler Temperatures This Weekend With Cold Front

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
230 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 ESE Saint Joseph Airp 39.76N 94.91W
07/31/2026  M66 MPH          Buchanan           MO   ASOS

&&

AK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
323 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Saint Joseph      39.79N 94.85W
07/31/2026                   Buchanan           MO   Broadcast Media

            Reports of multiple trees down and
            associated power outages. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

AK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
326 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ESE Saint Joseph      39.76N 94.82W
07/31/2026                   Buchanan           MO   Broadcast Media

            Reports of tree damage and power outages
            from broadcast media. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

AK