Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
126 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon
  and evening. Heavy downpours and gusty winds are anticipated,
  but severe weather is unlikely.

- Heat and humidity continue for the next several days.
  Temperatures and heat indices elevate through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Routine summer time programming continues for the region as high
temperatures today reach just about seasonal normals although
clouds and showers may slow the thermal ascent. A high over low
block continues to dominate the pattern over the central CONUS.
General southerly flow across the center of the country propels
a gradual, yet continual, increase in warm air and moisture
across the area.

Moisture transport is expected to expand northward today which when
coupled with increased warm air advection and diurnally enhanced
instability is likely to generate some air mass thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Some subtle vorticity advection aloft and
slight low level convergence will create just enough lift to
initiate convective development. Shear and mid level lapse rates are
fairly meager which curtails expectation of robust convection;
however, abnormally high PWAT values of 2-2.5 inches (>90
Percentile) do present an opportune environment for isolated heavy
rain showers. These downpours could result in rainfall rates of 1-2
inches per hour, with locally higher rate possible, which may lead
to some flash flooding and pooling from runoff. Storm motions are
also quite slow which may exacerbate impacts of heavy rainfall.
Storms are expected to be fairly pulse like with updrafts
developing and raining out fairly quickly. Unfortunately,
coverage of these storms is expected to be scattered so some may
receive all of the rain and some none. The good news is those
that receive the rain should experience a temporary cooldown
from the heat as highs reach the 90s for most and heat index
values reach 95-100 degrees. However, it is likely that post
storm conditions will feel more muggy and uncomfortable as
fresh rainfall evaporates. Rain chances through the rest of the
week look fairly marginal. There is some indication for
potential MCS activity mainly over the eastern parts of the
region early Friday morning; however, much of the activity is
expected to remain further east.

As the week rolls on ridging continues to dominate. The low over the
US/MEX border shrinks and meanders southward. This continues the
flow of warm air and moisture into the region steadily raising highs
into the mid to upper 90s by the weekend. Heat indices raise in kind
with expectations of around 100F by the weekend peaking around 100-
105F Monday. Current guidance suggests a 70+ percent chance of
exceeding 100F heat indicies and a 25 percent chances of advisory
level heat indicies on Sunday and Monday.

More of the same is expected in the extended forecast. Additional
rain chances return with a passing system early Tuesday morning, but
again, the main activity is expected to remain further east.
Extended guidance does show a potential for a break from the heat
mid next week as a dramatic push of cooler air is anticipated
to move southward from interior Canada. This looks to
significantly alter the pattern over the CONUS. However, with
such notable impact expected at this forecast scale, it is
important to account for potential deviations as those will
significantly affect the long term outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Scattered TSRA in VC of the terminals is expected to continue
through sunset. The current area of storms extending from MCI to
VER is expected to slowly move northward with additional
development possible ahead of this line over the next 4 hours.
Otherwise VFR conditions are anticipated with winds shifting
from southeasterly to southwesterly by sunrise tomorrow. Models
do show some minimal chances for BR/FG with near surface
evaporation overnight, but uncertainty for it remains high.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0504 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-171004-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0504 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms (25-50%) are forecast this
  afternoon and early this afternoon, mainly south of I-70.
  While severe weather is not expected, the storms could
  produce brief gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

- Temperature and humidity levels will continue to gradually
  climb, reaching the lower 90s today and Friday, the lower to
  middle 90s this weekend, and peaking in the middle to upper
  90s on Monday.

- Heat index values will reach the upper 90s to lower 100s
  Friday through this weekend, peaking around 100 to 110
  degrees on Monday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
155 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

KSZ057-MOZ043-161930-
Miami KS-Cass MO-
155 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI AND WESTERN
CASS COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM CDT...

At 154 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fontana, or near La Cygne, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Drexel, Fontana, and New Lancaster.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 9485 3859 9480 3853 9452 3848 9458
      3848 9461 3845 9461 3839 9468
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 200DEG 17KT 3842 9476

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

MOZ044-162145-
Johnson MO-
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY THROUGH
445 PM CDT...

At 359 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Holden, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Warrensburg, Holden, Kingsville, Centerview, and Fayetteville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 9410 3882 9408 3891 9367 3865 9359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 256DEG 10KT 3873 9390

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BT

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
438 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     Flash Flood      2 ESE Pittsville        38.84N 93.95W
07/16/2026                   Johnson            MO   Emergency Mngr

            Water over U.S. Highway 50 near the 1100
            block.

&&

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