Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Kansas City, MO

656 
WGUS73 KEAX 041859
FFSEAX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
159 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MOC037-083-101-042200-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-260704T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cass MO-Henry MO-Johnson MO-
159 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN CASS, NORTHERN HENRY AND JOHNSON COUNTIES IN
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

At 159 PM CDT, the public reported flash flooding in the
Harrisonville area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Flash
flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

SOURCE...Public reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Warrensburg, Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill, Windsor, Knob Noster,
  Holden, Garden City, Whiteman Air Force Base, Leeton, Calhoun,
  Creighton, Chilhowee, East Lynne, Kingsville, Baldwin Park,
  Whiteman Afb, Centerview and Strasburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3847 9432 3884 9435 3883 9412 3887 9412
      3891 9350 3890 9350 3890 9349 3865 9351
      3847 9351

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

CMS

230 
WGUS73 KEAX 042102
FFSEAX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
402 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MOC037-083-101-042112-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-260704T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cass MO-Henry MO-Johnson MO-
402 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EASTERN CASS, NORTHERN HENRY
AND JOHNSON COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3847 9432 3884 9435 3883 9412 3887 9412
      3891 9350 3890 9350 3890 9349 3865 9351
      3847 9351

$$

CMS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1246 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms, showers and cloud cover has minimized the
  potential for maximum temperatures to rise above mid to upper
  80s across the area.

- Shower and thunderstorm activity through the early afternoon
  has reduced potential impacts on afternoon/evening activity.
  Confidence remains low (20-30%) in exact evolution of
  afternoon activity after 3pm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Thunderstorms from the previous few hours continues to decay as it
traverses out of our forecast area, with new storms over
southeastern Nebraska and northern Kansas trailing behind. This
complex of storms is expected to continue pushing southeastward
through the remaining overnight hours into the morning as it
follows along mean atmospheric flow, with additional activity
spurred on by broad scale synoptic forcing through an upper-
level trough and associated vort maxima presently located over
southeast Nebraska. As it stands, most of this activity is
elevated, with stable low layers due to cold pooling and a bulk
of CAPE residing in the mixed layer. Thus, anticipated severe
impacts with these storms remains low confidence, with the
greatest hazards being heavy rainfall and strong winds gusts as
storms collapse.

Similar to yesterday, determining forecast impacts during the day
will depend a lot on real-time environmental analysis. CAMs continue
to perform poorly when it comes to resolving current activity, and
as such confidence remains low in any solutions they provide to
guide the forecast process. Utilizing what we know about the current
synoptic/mesoscale environment, it is plausible that activity
continues to our northwest through the morning and early afternoon.
At present, weak dCVA associated with the shortwave will prompt it
to slowly lift towards the east/northeast through the next few
hours. As the shortwave lingers, continued convective activity will
spark along weak synoptic lifting from this area of dCVA. Current
radar reflectivity shows activity developing generally from
southeast Nebraska into northern Kansas, which supports this idea.
This convection, as it continues to evolve through the night, could
lead to continued impacts across the forecast area through the
morning by way of ongoing convection or new activity firing off
along remnant outflow boundaries. Whatever ends up being the case,
the presence of these showers/storms could impact the timing of
showers/storms later in the afternoon/evening. If activity lingers,
it could keep our chances for precipitation lower during the
afternoon as the atmosphere won't have too much opportunity to heat
up and eventually destabilize. However, if this activity clears out
relatively quick and the atmosphere is allowed to destabilize
earlier, chances are greater in seeing pulse thunderstorms across
the area through the afternoon, which could create a greater
coverage of activity through subsequent outflow boundaries as
they build up and quickly collapse. Another caveat to consider
will be the continued effects of the shortwave as it lifts away
from our area. Looking at the broader synoptic scale, this
shortwave appears to drape a boundary down across our forecast
area during the evening/overnight hours. This will be a greater
forcing mechanism for showers/storms, and thus confidence is
higher in the potential for precipitation along this boundary.
However, there is still some disagreement between guidance on
when this boundary will cross over our forecast area, either
placing it as early as sunset or a few hours later in the night.
At the synoptic scale, there is a better chance for models to
resolve and agree on this relative to mesoscale features, so the
forecast ahead will have to monitor this trend to see if that
occurs. With this activity, severe potential remains lower, with
lower effective shear keeping storms less organized despite
ample instability and weak overall forcing. With strong storms,
you could expect to see gusty winds.

Activity will clear out going into Sunday, and "cooler" temperatures
will follow with the passage of the boundary. However, going into
next week, temperatures look to rise once again with an amplified
ridge building over our area through the early week. However, unlike
this previous week, lower dewpoints will keep much of our forecast
area below triple digit heat indices. Deterministic guidance keeps
our area drier through this early week timeframe, before PoPs
increase going into the later half of next week. However, at this
timeframe, greater deviation in deterministic solutions of the
synoptic scale remains evident, and as such confidence remains lower
on whether this will actually pan out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The activity from KS moving east through the morning has become
more organized as it moves across the area primarily impacting
many of TAF site location, particularly from KMKC and KIXD as
the stronger thunderstorms with lightning having been moving
through KIXD and southward over the past hour. While confidence
in KSTJ with -TSRA and kept them in prob30 but there could be a
potential. However kept the tempo groups in from 18z-20z for the
KMCI, KMKC and KIXD, especially as this initial line moves
through. I have kept a prob30 for these locations from 20z-23z
as the storms moving along and south of KMHK continue to move
east. Guidance did not resolve the activity well, but expect
these showers to continue through TAFs sites through 23z. Have
lower confidence in the development from 20-23z especially after
the the storms shift east of the TAF sites this by 20z. Expect
visibility to improve with VFR after 00z.
&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...SPG
SHORT TERM...WFO EAX
LONG TERM...WFO EAX
AVIATION...WFO EAX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0504 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051004-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0504 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and Humid weather continues through Saturday with heat
  indicies in the 100-105+ range, especially across central
  Missouri. Temperatures cool down slightly by Sunday.

- Residual shower/storm activity through the morning/early
  afternoon, with potential impacts on afternoon/evening
  activity. Confidence remains low in exact evolution of
  afternoon activity.

- Greater confidence in showers/storms during the late evening
  along the I-70 corridor, with lightning, strong winds, and
  heavy rainfall being the primary hazards.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

KSZ057-060-041730-
Miami KS-Linn KS-
1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MIAMI AND LINN COUNTIES
THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

At 1125 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Princeton to near Garnett to near Colony.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg, Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City,
Drexel, Linn Valley, Parker, Blue Mound, Prescott, Fontana, New
Lancaster, and Beagle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 9507 3856 9507 3862 9461 3804 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1625Z 264DEG 35KT 3846 9526 3821 9525 3801 9538

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1152 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSE Barnard           40.14N 94.80W
07/03/2026                   Nodaway            MO   Utility Company

            Several reports of downed wires and power
            outages between Barnard and Bolckow. Time
            estimated from radar.

1208 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 WSW Cosby             39.85N 94.75W
07/04/2026                   Andrew             MO   Utility Company

            Downed wires and several power outages near
            Route W and near U.S. Highway 169 in Andrew
            County. Time confirmed from radar.

1213 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 N Wathena             39.85N 94.94W
07/04/2026                   Doniphan           KS   Utility Company

            Downed power lines and several power outages
            near Treece Road. Time confirmed from radar.

1245 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SE Country Club Villa 39.79N 94.78W
07/04/2026                   Buchanan           MO   Utility Company

            Several reports of downed wires and power
            outages on the east sides of St. Joseph and
            Country Club Village.

1159 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSW Paola             38.53N 94.89W
07/04/2026                   Miami              KS   Local Official

            Downed power lines near 327th and Old Kansas
            City Road. Time estimated from radar.

&&

CMS