Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Kansas City, MO

230 
WGUS73 KEAX 140555
FFSEAX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

KSC107-121-140605-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-260614T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Linn KS-Miami KS-
1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LINN AND SOUTHERN MIAMI
COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT Sunday for portions
of east central Kansas and Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 9507 3845 9507 3844 9462 3817 9461
      3804 9461 3804 9508 3826 9508 3826 9507

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather on Saturday.
  All severe hazards are possible, including heavy rainfall.

* Quiet weather early next week, then chances for storms return
  midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Remnant storms from this morning continue to work their way
across northern MO. These storms may still be capable of
producing severe weather, however, they should continue to
weaken with eastward extent.

A 500-hPa analysis shows zonal flow across the central CONUS
with a closed low in northern Ontario. At the surface, a cold
front extends through northwestern IA and eastern NE. Southerly
flow has allowed a relatively soupy airmass to return to the
area with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s and dew points in
the low 70s. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid-80s
this afternoon, which, along with the plentiful moisture, will
allow MLCAPE values to soar to around 2000-3000 J/kg. Several
outflow boundaries are present near or in northwestern MO and
northeastern KS. The most notable of these is situated just
south of St. Joseph. The latest model guidance has seemed to
peg this area as the most likely location for convective
initiation this afternoon with storms initially taking a
discrete mode. Given deep layer shear values of 40+ kts, this
supports an initially supercellular storm mode with the primary
hazards of large hail and damaging winds. LCLs appear
unfavorable to tornado development, but certainly cannot rule it
out. As the cold front drops south into northern MO late this
afternoon and intersects these storms, convection is expected to
congeal into a more linear storm mode, which will pose a main
threat of damaging winds. As the evening progresses, the
environment will become more favorable for brief spin up
tornadoes along the line as the low-level shear increases with
the LLJ. Storms should be mostly out of the area by the time
this happens, but it is worth keeping an eye on. This thinking
aligns with the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, which has all of
western MO in an Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) Risk with damaging
winds and large hail being the primary concerns.

Timing wise, the most favorable timeframe for initial CI looks
to be around 3-4 PM CDT. As of 1 PM, attempts at CI are being
noted on satellite with showers forming along the
aforementioned outflow boundary. A weak cap is currently in
place around 900-hPa, which will need to be eroded before
storms can really take off. The front is expected to move into
northern MO around 5-6 PM CDT with a linear storm mode taking
over by 7 PM CDT. Storms should exit the southern portion of the
area by 1 AM CDT. However, a lot of uncertainty remains in this
forecast. The CAMs have not handled morning convection well
today and thus brings into question their output for this
afternoon and evening. But given the environment and current
convective evolutions, the picture painted above seems like the
most likely at this point.

The other important factor with the convection this
afternoon/evening will be the potential for flooding. Storms
should be fairly progressive, but given the amount of
precipitation that has fallen across the area over the past
week or so, it will not take a whole lot of additional
precipitation for flash flooding to occur. The current forecast
calls for 1-2" of new precipitation along and south of the
Missouri River with storms this afternoon/evening. Thus a flood
watch remain in effect for this area through 12Z on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 408 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Temperatures are expected to lower behind the cold front, with highs
in the low/mid 70s. The upper-level trough is expected to cycle
around the Hudson Bay, and generally place much of the forecast area
under zonal flow on Monday before several shortwave disturbances
will traverse the upper-level flow and place the forecast area under
multiple rounds for precipitation. The first of these rounds appears
Tuesday afternoon/evening, with a weak boundary invigorating
scattered chances (15-30%) for precipitation. By Wednesday
afternoon, another upper-level trough and associated surface low
will increase chances (40-60%) of precipitation through the evening
and overnight along another boundary. Temperatures this day will
climb ahead of strong surface-based southerly flow, with forecast
highs reaching the mid/high 80s. The boundary may slow/stall through
Thursday, prompting precipitation chances to continue mostly
along/south of the I-70 corridor. By the end of the forecast period,
brief amplified ridging to the west keeps remaining PoPs lower.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A line of TSRA will continue to develop and push to the
southeast through around 6z this evening. TSRA will bring very
heavy rain, hail to 2 inches, and a risk of winds in excess of
50kts. TSRA will be near KSTJ around 1z, KMCI around 2z, KMKC
between 2 and 3z, and IXD between 3 and 5z. After, skies will
gradually clear, but some IFR to MVFR ceilings will linger
through 12z at KIXD where some mist is possible as well. VFR
conditions are then expected to prevail area wide after 12z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ028-029-037-038-
     043>045-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ057-060-103>105.

&&

SHORT TERM...Carothers
LONG TERM...SPG
AVIATION...Ludwig

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0505 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-141005-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0505 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather on Saturday.
  All severe hazards are possible, including heavy rainfall.

* Quiet weather early next week, then chances for storms return
  midweek.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
949 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Prairie Village         38.99N 94.64W
06/13/2026                   Johnson            KS   Public

            Multiple downed trees in Prairie Village.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
957 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NW Lake Tapawingo     39.05N 94.35W
06/13/2026                   Jackson            MO   Trained Spotter

            Large tree down near 39th Street. Time
            confirmed from radar.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SE Blue Springs       39.01N 94.27W
06/13/2026                   Jackson            MO   Trained Spotter

            Downed tree limbs near Route 7. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
1002 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 NE Liberty            39.30N 94.37W
06/13/2026                   Clay               MO   Trained Spotter

            Downed tree limbs and wires near U.S. 69.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
1005 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NW Olathe             38.90N 94.83W
06/13/2026                   Johnson            KS   Public

            Large tree limb downed. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
1007 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 S Platte City         39.33N 94.78W
06/13/2026                   Platte             MO   Public

            Downed tree near Apple Blossom Drive. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

CMS