Tornado Warning 52, NWS Quad Cities, IA

145 
WWUS53 KDVN 171553
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1053 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

ILC177-171603-
/O.CAN.KDVN.TO.W.0052.000000T0000Z-260517T1615Z/
Stephenson IL-
1053 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL STEPHENSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 8963 4250 8943 4244 8958 4249 8965
      4251 8963
TIME...MOT...LOC 1551Z 230DEG 42KT 4256 8947 

$$

Gibbs

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
537 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...12z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The active weather pattern will continue through Monday, with potential
  for strong to severe storms each calendar day and mainly at
  night. Confidence on the day by day areal coverage and timing
  remains low.

- The warm and more humid stretch will last through early
  Tuesday, before a strong cold front sweeps through the area
  bringing cooler conditions for the mid-week period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Regional radar loops and satellite imagery suggest two "bookend"
MCV's rolling acrs the Midwest ATTM, one acrs the southwest half of
the DVN CWA and another more upstream acrs NE/KS/MO/IA quad state
region. Network VWP's showing these waves being fed by southwesterly
40-50+ KT LLJ flow impinging on their southern flanks. The one
closer to home will continue to move northeast acrs the area through
6-7 AM with it's weakening shield of rain with some embedded
thunder. The other one acrs far northwest MO is a little more
vigorous and may still help some stronger storms to keep going with
it's shear as it rolls acrs the northwestern CWA through mid to late
morning. Some additional swaths of heavy rain also possible this
morning with these two vortex's.

Then as longer wave upper troffiness adjusts acrs the northern
Rockies, leeside llvl/sfc frontogenesis will look to organize acrs
the central plains and northern MO RVR Valley.  After the morning to
midday convective debris clears, the area to be engulfed in the warm
breezy sector to the lee of the upstream front. This should make for
widespread highs in the low to mid 80s today and some humidity with
sfc DPTs in the low to mid 60s. Temporary upper ridge bulge in
between waves and an EML should make for a dry afternoon and
evening, as MCS initiation tools all suggest this evening's new
convection to take off acrs the MO RVR Valley and MN. A robust
southwesterly 50 KT H85 MB jet is progged to maintain acrs the area,
and the upstream storms will look to propagate east-southeastwrad
into the CWA not until well after midnight into early Monday
morning. Depending on cold pool propagation mechanics and other
support, these banded lines of storms will probably be generally in
a weakening mode as they make their way acrs the area toward sunrise
Monday, but still some threat for damaging winds with some of the
lines as they enter the western CWA. They probably will also be
dumping rain at high rainfall rates, but a progressive nature to the
storms should limit a flash flood threat. Low temps in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Monday and Tuesday...A stronger cold front will look to organize
upstream acrs the plains and Upper MO RVR Valley on Monday. It will
be another day of having some convective debris and outflow
boundaries to wash out and recover with southerly flow as the day
progresses. Highs back in the 80s and mid to upper 60 DPTs will make
for a nice CAPE pool locally with values over 3000 J/kg possible. A
stronger digging upper trof on the cold front off to the west will
look to light up strong convection acrs the far east central plains
and mid MO RVR Valley by late Monday afternoon. Another scenario
where this convection grows upscale into a linear MCS, and may have
better support to maintain as a severe squall line as it propagates
eastward acrs IA and toward the local area later Monday night. A
situation that will have to be monitored over the next day and a
half. Ensemble timing has the cold front sweeping through the area
Tuesday morning, taking the convection with it off to the eats and
southeast of the area. A cooler blustery post frontal day by Tuesday
afternoon.

Wednesday through Saturday...The latest ensembles suggest high
pressure regime to shunt the main storm track to the south of the
region for mush of the mid to late week period. Cooler temps in the
60s moderating back to the 70s by Friday. The next main chance for
precip may not come until Friday if the latest wave-handling by
the ensembles is correct.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

MCV and it's associated bands of showers and thunderstorms will
move north acrs portions of the area and effect the CID and DBQ
sites through late morning before exiting off to the north.
There will be bouts of MVFR to IFR VSBYs and CIGs this morning
along with variable sfc winds until this feature exits. Then
with a debris cloud clear off, southerly winds will become gusty
up to 25-30 KTs by afternoon. The winds to remain blustery into
the evening, and with some sfc gust diminish there may be a
marginal LLVL wind shear scenario setting up for Sunday night as
a southwesterly LLJ really cranks up to at least 45 KTs.
Another round of nocturnal storms should hold off and not move
in from the west/northwest until after 06-08z late tonight.
These storms may have gusty winds and passing heavy downpours.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
429 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-181100-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
429 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will move across portions of
the Outlook Area this morning. There is a low chance that these
storms can produce gusty winds. A better chance for more
thunderstorms will occur after midnight tonight and into early
Monday morning. Some of these storms may be able to produce
damaging winds as they move across the area. Most of the Outlook
Area is in a Level 1 out of 5 Risk for severe storms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

There will be another threat for strong to severe storms across
the Outlook Area Monday night. All types of severe weather will be
possible during this period, with damaging winds again the primary
concern. There is a Level 3 out of 5 Risk for severe storms
generally west of a line from Cedar Rapids to Mount Pleasant,
Iowa. The rest of the area is in a Level 2 or Slight Risk for
severe weather Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

There is a chance that spotter activation will be needed today and
especially later tonight. Spotter activation may be needed again
Monday night.

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1017 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

ILZ001-002-171600-
Jo Daviess IL-Stephenson IL-
1017 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Jo
Daviess and Stephenson Counties through 1100 AM CDT...

At 1017 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stockton, or 14 miles west of Freeport, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Strong winds could break small tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Freeport, Lena, Stockton, Cedarville, Davis, Dakota, Winslow, Rock
City, Nora, Buena Vista, Rock Grove, Oneco, Orangeville, Kent,
Eleroy, Damascus, Lake Le-Aqua-
na State Park, Mc Connell, Scioto Mills, and Winneshiek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 8940 4232 8940 4226 9005 4242 9007
      4251 8979
TIME...MOT...LOC 1517Z 243DEG 41KT 4232 8992

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Gibbs