Tornado Warning 3, NWS Quad Cities, IA

155 
WWUS53 KDVN 110110
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
810 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

IAC177-MOC045-199-110145-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260311T0145Z/
Van Buren IA-Scotland MO-Clark MO-
810 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
VAN BUREN...NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND AND NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES...

At 810 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Azen, or 10 miles northeast of Memphis, moving east
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Mount Sterling, Azen, Prospect Grove, and Heath Memorial 
  Conservation Area around 815 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include
Bonaparte, Farmington, Chambersburg, Anson and Indian Lake Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4060 9218 4062 9218 4073 9172 4060 9172
      4059 9170 4051 9169 4051 9220 4060 9222
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 260DEG 35KT 4059 9207 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN

$$

Gunkel

225 
WWUS53 KDVN 110120
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
820 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

IAC177-MOC045-199-110145-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260311T0145Z/
Van Buren IA-Scotland MO-Clark MO-
820 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
VAN BUREN...NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND AND NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES...

At 819 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Azen, or 10 miles south of Keosauqua, moving east at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Mount Sterling and Heath Memorial Conservation Area around 825 PM 
  CDT.
  Bonaparte, Chambersburg, Anson, and Indian Lake Park around 830 PM 
  CDT.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include
Farmington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4060 9218 4062 9218 4073 9172 4060 9172
      4059 9170 4051 9169 4051 9217
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 261DEG 28KT 4059 9202 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN

$$

Gunkel

986 
WWUS53 KDVN 110127
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
827 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

IAC177-MOC045-199-110145-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260311T0145Z/
Van Buren IA-Scotland MO-Clark MO-
827 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN VAN BUREN...NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND AND NORTHWESTERN CLARK
COUNTIES...

At 826 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Mount Sterling, 
or 9 miles south of Keosauqua, moving east at 40 mph. Spotter 
reported tornado northeast of Azen.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Bonaparte, Farmington, Heath Memorial Conservation Area, 
  Chambersburg, Anson, and Indian Lake Park around 830 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 4065 9205 4073 9172 4060 9172 4059 9170
      4051 9169 4053 9202
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 260DEG 35KT 4060 9193 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN

$$

Gunkel

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
647 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A heightened risk (levels 3/4 of 5) for severe storms from
  mid-afternoon through mid-evening, especially east and
  southeast of the Quad Cities. Large hail greater than golf
  ball size is the hazard that is most probable, and tornadoes
  will materialize with any sustained supercells near the front.
  Stay weather aware and plan ahead.

- A transition to a localized damaging wind and flash flood risk
  with any repeated rounds of storms should happen later this
  evening into early overnight, mainly on the IL side.

- Turning colder and more seasonable by late week and into the
  weekend, with additional precipitation chances, some of which
  could be snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Observational trends and honing of the forecast in space, time,
and magnitude will be the rule this afternoon into evening. The
warm front, which will be the focus for potential sustained,
surface-based supercells, is pronounced and stretches from just
south of the Quad Cities eastward almost exactly along I-80.
This has a 15 to 20° gradient along it. This front is basically
stationary in Illinois on satellite imagery. The gustier south
winds, which are often something we look for right up to a front
for good tornado potential, are still a little ways south
(approaching Peoria and and Macomb). Also in northern Missouri
and in spots in central Illinois are billow patchwork clouds,
indicative of high values of helicity in the lowest part of the
atmosphere (i.e. spin potential).

These observational trends are concerning for tornadoes later
today with sustained supercells that can ingest that moist,
unstable air south of the front. In terms of significant
tornadoes, this threat could be quite localized, and will depend
on if supercell storms can stay latched on the front, or if the
rain-cooled air each produces (RFD) is quite cold and shimmies
the front a little south and individual updrafts cannot ingest
that moist and unstable air for a long enough duration. That can
happen if those gusty south winds are not right up to the front.
Nonetheless, rotating storms are almost a given later today
in/near this Moderate Risk, with large hail a noteworthy threat
and a tornado threat with any supercells along the warm front
or in that northern portion of the warm sector. Stay weather
aware!

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Satellite shows the frontal boundary well with it running just
south of I-80 before turning and going into southeast Iowa. A
secondary lake induced boundary is moving southwest out the
Chicago metro area.

Surface observations show an unstable boundary layer across
Missouri into southern Illinois with observation sites showing
gusts. Sustained winds are also 10-15 knots indicating
respectable inflow for any developing storms. 18z DVN sounding
has a very moist boundary layer but still a cap above it. Said
cap is the key as HRRR trends are not consistent with storm
initiation time.

Thus through mid-afternoon the potential is there for isolated
to low end scattered showers to develop along the front until
the arrival of the weak low.

That being said the HRRR has been very consistent in showing
rapid storm development once the cap is overcome. Initial
development would be discrete cells that rapidly grow upscale
into multi-cellular lines.

Data indicates rapid storm movement of 40-45 knots to the
northeast with hail/winds being the primary severe risks. If
storms turn more to the east, they will slow down to about 30
knots with a more sheared inflow and thus being a tornado/hail
risk.

The time frame between 4 and 10 PM still looks to be prime time
for any severe storms. The area most at risk is along/south of
I-80 and generally east of the Mississippi. All severe weather
modes will be possible in this area.

North of I-80 and generally west of the Mississippi the severe
risk is much lower. Storms would be elevated with hail being the
primary risk. An exception would be in far southeast Iowa and
far northeast Missouri right along the Mississippi where surface
based storms would be possible, indicating a hail/damaging wind
as the primary risks but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out.

After 10 PM a brief break in storm and rain activity looks to
occur before the next surge of moisture comes up from the south.
A broad swath of rain with some embedded thunderstorms looks to
develop after midnight generally east of a Dubuque, IA to
Ottumwa, IA line and continue through sunrise Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Quick look at longer range.  Wednesday...a blustery raw day with
gusty northwest wind and a cold post-frontal rain regime, possibly
mixing or changing over to wet snow acrs the northwestern CWA before
exiting out of the area Wed evening. Mid CONUS steering pattern
change to northwest flow will look to usher down a clipper into the
GRT LKS, possibly bring rain and snow to the area Thu night. Daily
up and down temp trends through the weekend, and will have to watch
for phasing trends of a stronger clipper that could translate into a
more significant storm system Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Ongoing storms at 11.00Z TAF issuance have formed farther
northwest than previously expected and therefore have included
VCTS at KCID and KDBQ TAF sites. Otherwise, severe storms
sitting between KBRL and KMLI, primarily moving east with low
level winds, initially shifted north after initiation along the
frontal boundary. Therefore, have included TSRA at KMLI while
storms appear to be split around the 5SM and 10SM rings at TAF
issuance.

Eventually the frontal boundary shifts stronger storms east
through the forecast area through the overnight. Subsequent
RA/SN mix possible through Wednesday morning primarily for the
northern half of the forecast area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Record High Temperatures for March 10:

KBRL: 76 in 1955

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

UPDATE...Friedlein
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ARX/JAR
CLIMATE...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
219 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-111930-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
219 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A moderate risk, or level 4 out of 5, continues for severe storms
generally east of a line from Walnut, Illinois to Macomb,
Illinois. An enhanced risk, or level 3 out of 5, continues as far
west as a Sterling, Quad Cities to Fairfield, Iowa line.

Supercell storms capable of producing golfball size hail or
larger, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible.

North and west of a Sterling, Quad Cities to Fairfield, Iowa line,
elevated storms capable of producing hail will be possible.

The most likely time frame for severe storms looks to from 4 to 10
PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Dry and windy conditions may lead to elevated fire danger on
Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed for portions of the
Outlook area late this afternoon and evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
730 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     Hail             1 ESE Iowa City         41.65N 91.51W
03/10/2026  M1.00 Inch       Johnson            IA   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
731 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Hail             Bernard                 42.31N 90.83W
03/10/2026  E2.00 Inch       Dubuque            IA   Emergency Mngr

&&

DC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
733 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     Hail             2 WSW Damascus          42.36N 89.73W
03/10/2026  M1.25 Inch       Stephenson         IL   Public

&&

DC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
735 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     Hail             3 W Paralta             42.04N 91.51W
03/10/2026  M1.25 Inch       Linn               IA   Public

            1 mile east of Marion Airport.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
741 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     Hail             1 NE Rochester          41.67N 91.16W
03/10/2026  M1.50 Inch       Cedar              IA   Trained Spotter

&&

GROSS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
746 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     Hail             West Branch             41.67N 91.35W
03/10/2026  M0.88 Inch       Cedar              IA   Public

            Via social media.

&&