Tornado Warning 1, NWS Quad Cities, IA

037 
WWUS53 KDVN 102338
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
638 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

ILC011-073-110015-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260311T0015Z/
Henry IL-Bureau IL-
638 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN HENRY AND SOUTHWESTERN BUREAU COUNTIES...

At 638 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located just north of Kewanee, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Sheffield, Buda, Neponset, and Johnson-Sauk Trail State Park 
  around 645 PM CDT.

This includes Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 39 and
45.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Motorists should not take shelter under highway overpasses. If you
cannot safely drive away from the tornado, as a last resort, either
park your vehicle and stay put, or abandon your vehicle and lie down
in a low lying area and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4122 8964 4123 8964 4123 8987 4122 8987
      4120 8997 4127 9003 4144 8970 4123 8957
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 240DEG 34KT 4127 8991 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN

$$

Gunkel

809 
WWUS53 KDVN 102351 RRA
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
651 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

ILC011-073-110015-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260311T0015Z/
Henry IL-Bureau IL-
651 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL HENRY AND SOUTHWESTERN BUREAU COUNTIES...

At 650 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Neponset, or 10 miles northeast of Kewanee, moving 
northeast at 40 mph. Numerous reports of visible rotation has been 
seen with this storm. 

HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Sheffield and Buda around 655 PM CDT.

This includes Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 39 and
45.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Motorists should not take shelter under highway overpasses. If you
cannot safely drive away from the tornado, as a last resort, either
park your vehicle and stay put, or abandon your vehicle and lie down
in a low lying area and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4122 8964 4123 8964 4124 8987 4132 8993
      4144 8970 4123 8957
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 240DEG 34KT 4133 8977 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN

$$

Gunkel

020 
WWUS53 KDVN 110004
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
704 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

ILC073-110013-
/O.CAN.KDVN.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260311T0015Z/
Henry IL-
704 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL HENRY COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for north central
Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 4128 8974 4138 8982 4144 8970 4130 8961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 239DEG 33KT 4137 8965 

$$

ILC011-110015-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260311T0015Z/
Bureau IL-
704 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL BUREAU COUNTY...

At 703 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Buda, or 9 miles west of Princeton, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
west central Bureau County.

This includes Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 39 and
45.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Motorists should not take shelter under highway overpasses. If you
cannot safely drive away from the tornado, as a last resort, either
park your vehicle and stay put, or abandon your vehicle and lie down
in a low lying area and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4128 8974 4138 8982 4144 8970 4130 8961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 239DEG 33KT 4137 8965 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN

$$

Gunkel

496 
WWUS53 KDVN 110013
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
713 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

ILC011-110022-
/O.EXP.KDVN.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260311T0015Z/
Bureau IL-
713 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL BUREAU COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
715 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for north central
Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 4128 8974 4138 8982 4144 8970 4130 8961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 240DEG 34KT 4141 8956 

$$

Gunkel

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
154 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A heightened risk (levels 3/4 of 5) for severe storms from
  mid-afternoon through mid-evening, especially east and
  southeast of the Quad Cities. Large hail greater than golf
  ball size is the hazard that is most probable, and tornadoes
  will materialize with any sustained supercells near the front.
  Stay weather aware and plan ahead.

- A transition to a localized damaging wind and flash flood risk
  with any repeated rounds of storms should happen later this
  evening into early overnight, mainly on the IL side.

- Turning colder and more seasonable by late week and into the
  weekend, with additional precipitation chances, some of which
  could be snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Observational trends and honing of the forecast in space, time,
and magnitude will be the rule this afternoon into evening. The
warm front, which will be the focus for potential sustained,
surface-based supercells, is pronounced and stretches from just
south of the Quad Cities eastward almost exactly along I-80.
This has a 15 to 20° gradient along it. This front is basically
stationary in Illinois on satellite imagery. The gustier south
winds, which are often something we look for right up to a front
for good tornado potential, are still a little ways south
(approaching Peoria and and Macomb). Also in northern Missouri
and in spots in central Illinois are billow patchwork clouds,
indicative of high values of helicity in the lowest part of the
atmosphere (i.e. spin potential).

These observational trends are concerning for tornadoes later
today with sustained supercells that can ingest that moist,
unstable air south of the front. In terms of significant
tornadoes, this threat could be quite localized, and will depend
on if supercell storms can stay latched on the front, or if the
rain-cooled air each produces (RFD) is quite cold and shimmies
the front a little south and individual updrafts cannot ingest
that moist and unstable air for a long enough duration. That can
happen if those gusty south winds are not right up to the front.
Nonetheless, rotating storms are almost a given later today
in/near this Moderate Risk, with large hail a noteworthy threat
and a tornado threat with any supercells along the warm front
or in that northern portion of the warm sector. Stay weather
aware!

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Satellite shows the frontal boundary well with it running just
south of I-80 before turning and going into southeast Iowa. A
secondary lake induced boundary is moving southwest out the
Chicago metro area.

Surface observations show an unstable boundary layer across
Missouri into southern Illinois with observation sites showing
gusts. Sustained winds are also 10-15 knots indicating
respectable inflow for any developing storms. 18z DVN sounding
has a very moist boundary layer but still a cap above it. Said
cap is the key as HRRR trends are not consistent with storm
initiation time.

Thus through mid-afternoon the potential is there for isolated
to low end scattered showers to develop along the front until
the arrival of the weak low.

That being said the HRRR has been very consistent in showing
rapid storm development once the cap is overcome. Initial
development would be discrete cells that rapidly grow upscale
into multi-cellular lines.

Data indicates rapid storm movement of 40-45 knots to the
northeast with hail/winds being the primary severe risks. If
storms turn more to the east, they will slow down to about 30
knots with a more sheared inflow and thus being a tornado/hail
risk.

The time frame between 4 and 10 PM still looks to be prime time
for any severe storms. The area most at risk is along/south of
I-80 and generally east of the Mississippi. All severe weather
modes will be possible in this area.

North of I-80 and generally west of the Mississippi the severe
risk is much lower. Storms would be elevated with hail being the
primary risk. An exception would be in far southeast Iowa and
far northeast Missouri right along the Mississippi where surface
based storms would be possible, indicating a hail/damaging wind
as the primary risks but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out.

After 10 PM a brief break in storm and rain activity looks to
occur before the next surge of moisture comes up from the south.
A broad swath of rain with some embedded thunderstorms looks to
develop after midnight generally east of a Dubuque, IA to
Ottumwa, IA line and continue through sunrise Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Quick look at longer range.  Wednesday...a blustery raw day with
gusty northwest wind and a cold post-frontal rain regime, possibly
mixing or changing over to wet snow acrs the northwestern CWA before
exiting out of the area Wed evening. Mid CONUS steering pattern
change to northwest flow will look to usher down a clipper into the
GRT LKS, possibly bring rain and snow to the area Thu night. Daily
up and down temp trends through the weekend, and will have to watch
for phasing trends of a stronger clipper that could translate into a
more significant storm system Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Persistent cloud deck around 1 kft AGL across eastern Iowa and
northern Illinois may hold off on SHRA/TSRA for much of the
afternoon, especially west of the Mississippi and north of I-80.
Rapid TSRA development after 20z/10 south of I-80 and east of
the Mississippi that will come in rounds. More widespread
SHRA/TSRA will overspread southeast Iowa into northern Illinois
after 04z/11. Model soundings indicate a very marginal LLWS risk
around 20-25 knots 09z-14z/11. After 14z/11 winds will pick up
with gusts up to 30 knots creating low level mechanical
turbulence.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Record High Temperatures for March 10:

KBRL: 76 in 1955

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

UPDATE...Friedlein
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...12/08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
219 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-111930-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
219 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A moderate risk, or level 4 out of 5, continues for severe storms
generally east of a line from Walnut, Illinois to Macomb,
Illinois. An enhanced risk, or level 3 out of 5, continues as far
west as a Sterling, Quad Cities to Fairfield, Iowa line.

Supercell storms capable of producing golfball size hail or
larger, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible.

North and west of a Sterling, Quad Cities to Fairfield, Iowa line,
elevated storms capable of producing hail will be possible.

The most likely time frame for severe storms looks to from 4 to 10
PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Dry and windy conditions may lead to elevated fire danger on
Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed for portions of the
Outlook area late this afternoon and evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
604 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     Hail             Alpha                   41.19N 90.38W
03/10/2026  E0.75 Inch       Henry              IL   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime size hail.

&&

JTS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
606 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     Hail             Middletown              40.83N 91.26W
03/10/2026  M0.70 Inch       Des Moines         IA   Trained Spotter

&&

JTS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
624 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     Hail             Buda                    41.33N 89.68W
03/10/2026  M1.00 Inch       Bureau             IL   Trained Spotter

&&

GROSS