Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
250 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Several rounds of storms still to go through Thursday evening with
Enhanced Risk for most of the area. All modes of severe possible. It
may be an ideal set up for tornadic discrete supercells on Thursday.

- A juiced airmass and several rounds of storms to wring it out in
the form of heavy rainfall will make for a flash flood/flooding
threat across much of the area into Thursday morning, especially
south of Interstate 80.

-Cooler and quiet for Friday, then more storms possible on
 Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

In the wake of today's MCS, watching the area getting some heating
and convergence with an upstream short wave from northeast KS into
far south central IA for renewed convective development over the
next few hours. This activity to then propagate eastward acrs the
local area again this evening(especially along and south of I-80)
with all modes of severe possible. High THTA-E LLJ impingement on
lingering outflow boundaries and cool pools from today's first round
may promote back-building and some training of storm cells which
would make for a flash flood threat. Some of the CAM runs have
localized swaths of 2-4 inches by Thursday morning acrs the southern
DVN CWA. With some Thu morning storms also possible(although they
may occur north of the areas that may get hit hard tonight), have
already gone ahead and issued a flood watch for flash flooding acrs
the southern 2/3's of the DVN CWA through 16z Thu morning.

A second area to watch for storm development this evening will be
along a frontal boundary pushing acrs central into northeast Iowa.
These storms may be strong as well but will be moving into worked
over areas by the earlier convection, as well as move into the
"shadow" of the expected storm clusters occurring to the south which
may take over the inflow support. This would hopefully produce a
decaying storm effect as the frontal convection moves east into the
DVN area of responsibility.

Thursday...An early morning MCS or convective cluster development
on the nose of a lingering LLJ and to the lee of a MCV or short wave
trof will look to occur around the Omaha area toward daybreak. This
activity will look to then propagate east-northeastwrad acrs IA with
better shear profiles supporting strong to severe storms even if
they are partially elevated in nature. This also as a frontal system
and sfc wave organize just west of the convection. If this
convection could become sfc rooted, backed LLVL flow may support a
morning tornado acrs the northwestern CWA or north of Hwy 30.
Otherwise they maybe more of a hail and downburst threat. After this
morning convection, a robust short wave trof will look to press it's
way eastward acrs the area through Thu evening. There will be a sfc
reflection front and sfc wave sweeping east as well, and the CWA
will be engulfed in the breezy warm sector by Thu afternoon. Optimum
deep shear profiles and various jet level support support discrete
or semi discrete supercell development Thu afternoon, with a
potentially strong tornado genesis support regime. Large hail also
will look to be a factor, and the cells will look to mature as they
move acrs northern IL and southern WI. This is where longer track
tornado support will also migrate to as the afternoon progresses.
If the CAM ensembles are correct, most of the convection will be
east of the local area by 00-01z. High temp trends tricky for Thu
with the convection and boundaries, with quite a range possible from
northwest to southeast. Clearing and cooler for Thu night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Quick look at the longer range, a quiet, cooler and tranquil Friday
looks in store, then another frontal system takes aim at the region
on Saturday with potentially enough forcing to support some strong
storms. After that, a well needed reprieve as the storm track gets
shunted south and below normal temps infiltrate the area for highs
in the 70s Sunday and into early next week. Will have to watch for
nuisance clipper like systems for spotty precip chances in the
northwesterly steering flow next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Stormy period making for a turbulent TAF cycle. Strong variable
wind gusts with severe storm clusters into the mid evening, as
well as sharply reduced VSBYs with passing torrential
downpours. The storm clusters should begin to move east and
south of the TAF sites after 03z, but a front squeezing in from
the northwest may keep storms in the VCNTY of CID and DBQ until
after 04 or 05z. Then an overnight VFR lull possible into the
early Thu morning hours. Will then have to watch for the next
round of storms moving in from the west by mid morning
especially at CID and DBQ. These may be severe storms as well
with all threats possible.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for IAZ063>068-076>078-
     087>089-098-099.
IL...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ILZ009-015>018-
     024>026-034-035.
MO...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ009-010.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
347 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-111100-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
347 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Scattered to clusters of strong to severe storms will move across
portions of the Outlook Area through this evening. All modes of
severe weather will be possible with this evening activity.

These storms will also produce heavy rainfall at high rates. In
areas that receive repeated storm activity, there will be the
chance for flash flooding. The higher potential for this appears
to be south of Interstate 80. A Flood Watch is in effect through
Thursday morning for areas generally south of the Highway 30
corridor.

Some area rivers will experience substantial within bank rises
from the bouts of heavy rainfall. A few may even approach flood
stage through the end of the week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

On Thursday, two more rounds of storms will be seen across the
area; the first in the morning and the second in the afternoon and
early evening. The Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced, level
3 out of 5, risk for the area.

All modes of severe weather will again be possible on Thursday.
Individual supercells will have the capability to produce very
large hail and strong tornadoes especially during the afternoon
due to a strong low pressure system moving through the area. Storm
cells that evolve into bowing segments or lines may produce
damaging winds of 70 to 80 plus mph in the strongest storms.

Heavy rainfall will again be a risk with the storms on Thursday.
With the ground primed from the heavy rain on Wednesday, a flash
flood risk will continue on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely both this evening and on Thursday.

12

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
250 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W Dubuque             42.51N 90.72W
06/10/2026                   Dubuque            IA   Trained Spotter

            Many small to medium sized branches blown
            down. A larger size branch causing traffic
            issues on one downtown street. Medium sized
            tree uprooted in front yard 3 houses from
            us.

&&

ARG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
347 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 W Oneida              42.54N 91.43W
06/10/2026                   Delaware           IA   Emergency Mngr

            Powerlines leaning.

&&

ARG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
351 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Asbury                  42.51N 90.75W
06/10/2026                   Dubuque            IA   Public

            Large spruce tree down.

&&

ARG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
356 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Asbury                  42.52N 90.76W
06/10/2026                   Dubuque            IA   Public

            Large tree snapped off near the base. Trunk
            diameter over a foot.

&&

MJB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
409 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Dubuque                 42.51N 90.69W
06/10/2026                   Dubuque            IA   Emergency Mngr

            EM reports widespread 70-80 mph winds in the
            area with numerous trees down and power
            outages. Some traffic lights have power out
            on Hwy 20.

&&

MJB