Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- This morning's round of heavy rain producing storms has seen
  prolific heavy rain rates, mesoscale storm interactions, and
  nearly continuous redevelopment, resulting in a Flash Flood
  Threat Developing!

- Rounds of nocturnal and diurnal convection through Monday
  night will bring a risk of locally heavy rainfall due to weak
  winds aloft. If the heavy rain occurs in an urban area,
  localized flash flooding is possible.

- Heat and humidity will return around mid-week with
  temperatures in the 90s and heat indices pushing 100 or
  higher. The probability of heat headlines around mid-week is
  33-40 percent.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A lake boundary arrived overnight, allowing for enhanced
covergence over our CWA, which has interacted with the upper low
arriving, and exceptionall high PWAT values around 2 inches to
produce heavy rain and thunderstorms. The majority of these have
not been intense, but a few strong storms are out there,
especially in our eastern CWA. NST values of 2-3 are shown by
SPC Meso in Bureau Co, and a tornado was recently reported near
I-80 east of Princeton.

I've opted to issue a Flood Watch for this scenario where
repeated torrential rain is expecte on and off through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A lake/convection induced boundary has pushed into the area with it
running roughly from KMIW, to just north of the QCA metro area and
then to between KC75 and KPIA. With little in the way of forcing
across the area, only a brief rogue shower or storm is possible
through sunrise.

After sunrise, said boundary will become the focus for new
convection. Here the very short term models differ on timing but
generally agree that the boundary will be the initiation point. The
timing difference is traceable to the arrival of a weak upper level
disturbance from the Plains. Thus through mid-morning mainly dry
conditions will be seen with diurnal convection occurring anytime
from late morning on.

Away from the boundary, areal coverage of the convection looks to be
20-40 percent. Along the boundary a broken line of storms will
develop that slowly moves north through the afternoon. Outflow
boundaries from the convection will then be the foci for more
convection late this afternoon and evening.

After sunset areal coverage will slowly increase as the LLJ
develops. The highest coverage looks to be west of the Mississippi.
Toward sunrise Monday the highest coverage will slowly shift along
the Mississippi River.

Monday isolated to scattered convection will be seen west of the
Mississippi with the higher coverage along/east of the Mississippi.
A weak front arriving from the Plains will bring the convection to
an end from west to east late Monday afternoon and night.

Due to weak winds aloft, no severe storms are anticipated today or
Monday. However, the weak winds aloft means slow moving storms that
will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. If that heavy
rain occurs over an urban area, localized flash flooding is
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Tuesday through Sunday
Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of temperatures well above
normal. Low (20-25%) confidence for rain.

Trends with the models continue to show temperatures well above
normal for much of the week.

However, the highest heat indices now look to occur in the
Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. A seasonably strong front arriving
Wednesday night will bring cooler temperatures on Thursday with
temperatures moving to near normal for next weekend.

Heat indices Tuesday continue to indicate 95 to 100 but areas south
of I-80 have a 30-40% probability of exceeding 100. On Wednesday the
probability of seeing heat indices of 100+ is now at 50-60%.
Depending upon how rain chances play out, heat headlines may be
needed in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame.

The model consensus indicates the daylight hours of Tuesday are dry.
Tuesday night into Wednesday is a question. A weak signal has
started to develop suggesting a nocturnal storm complex running
around the edge of the heat dome. If this occurs it would play
significantly into the need for potential heat headlines Wednesday.

Albeit a weak signal, some of the ensemble members of the various
models are pointing to rain and have a 20-30 percent chance for rain
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday looks interesting.

A much stronger front is progged to move through the area that will
be associated with a strong upper level disturbance. Winds in the
mid-levels of the atmosphere are progged to be around 50 knots
indicating organized storms with the potential for severe storms.
CSU ML progs and other ML analog sites from the June 6th model runs
have a 15-30% probability of severe storms occurring. Thus the
transition from hot and humid conditions may have severe storms.

Thus Wednesday night has the best chances for rain. The current
model consensus has 50-70 percent chances for rain. Outside of
Wednesday night, the model consensus has daily 20-35 percent chances
for rain Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

An upper low with copious moisture is combining with east winds
over northern Illinois to bring widespread shower and
thunderstorms to eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. This
nearly continuous process will lead to scattered storms with low
visibility, heavy rain, and lower MVFR cigs / brief IFR cigs to
all sites this aftenroon and evening, and potentially into
Monday afternoon at times. Expect heavy downpours with all
storms, and possibly localized gusty winds, but otherwise, light
wind flow from the southeast to east southeast.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for IAZ040>042-051>054-
     064>068.
IL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for ILZ001-007-009-015>018-
     024.
MO...None.

&&

UPDATE...Ervin
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...McClure

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
416 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-080930-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
416 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Periodic slow moving showers, and scattered mainly afternoon and
evening storms are expected. Any storms will be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall. If a storm would stall over an
area, or if repeated storms would occur, then localized flash
flooding would be possible. Gusty winds are also possible with the
strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Scattered storms are expected on Monday, particularly in the
afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are possible with the storms.

Hotter weather arrives Tuesday and Wednesday with heat indices
near or above 100 degrees possible. Severe thunderstorms are
also possible Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight. However,
rainfall reports over 1 inch will be appreciated.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1059 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     Rain             2 W Bettendorf          41.57N 90.51W
06/07/2026  M1.20 Inch       Scott              IA   Trained Spotter

            Rainfall over the past hour. Light rain
            falling at time of report.

&&

ALE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1059 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

IAZ042-053-054-066-ILZ001-071645-
Jo Daviess IL-Clinton IA-Jackson IA-Dubuque IA-Jones IA-
1059 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...Slow-moving thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Jo
Daviess, northwestern Clinton, western Jackson, southern Dubuque and
northeastern Jones Counties through 1145 AM CDT...

At 1059 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking and area of slow-moving
thunderstorms along a line extending from near La Motte to near
Canton. Movement was north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Minor flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Slowing or redirecting of traffic due to ponding or flowing
         water. Closure of waterfront access due to flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Dubuque, Maquoketa, Cascade, Epworth, East Dubuque, Farley, Peosta,
Wyoming, Lost Nation, Andrew, Worthington, La Motte, Menominee,
Onslow, Monmouth, St. Donatus, Centralia, Bernard, Center Junction,
and Zwingle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring and may lead to localized flooding.
Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4251 9064 4251 9054 4225 9048 4196 9078
      4209 9112 4244 9113 4252 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 1559Z 189DEG 13KT 4230 9057 4219 9100

MAX HAIL SIZE...<0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<40 MPH

Ervin

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     Rain             2 W Bettendorf          41.57N 90.51W
06/07/2026  M1.47 Inch       Scott              IA   Trained Spotter

            Total from AM storms.

&&

ALE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1249 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 PM     Rain             1 S Manlius             41.44N 89.67W
06/07/2026  M5.10 Inch       Bureau             IL   Trained Spotter

&&

ALE

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
102 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 PM     Rain             1 SW Cambridge          41.30N 90.20W
06/07/2026  M1.00 Inch       Henry              IL   Trained Spotter

            Total from 0830-1300 local time.

&&

ALE