Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
628 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Enhanced (Level 3 out of 5) Risk for severe storms has
  shifted to south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line with a
  Slight (Level 2 out of 5) north. All modes of severe weather
  are possible.

- Cooler temperatures are forecast across the area Tuesday
  through Friday with slightly warmer temperatures next
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Convection continues to develop across northeast Kansas and
northwest Missouri early this morning associated with a
disturbance and 300 MB jet max spreading into the region. The
HRRR and NamNest continue to show this convection moving across
the area from west to east between 10 and 16 UTC with the
potential for strong to severe storms moving across the area
along/south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line. There is the
potential for isolated damaging wind gusts in the 12 to 16 UTC
timeframe, or from 7 AM to 11 AM. Rainfall amounts of a quarter
to half an inch are possible this morning with isolated amounts
up to 1 inch. A brief window of quiet weather is then expected
into the early afternoon. This morning convection is expected to
impact the convective potential across the area this afternoon
into the evening hours. Outside of any precipitation, expect
cloudy skies with a gusty winds up to 25 MPH through the
afternoon.

Models continue to show a 500 MB trough lifting northeast from
the Plains this morning into the Upper Midwest by tonight. The
surface low is expected to follow a more southerly path from
previous forecasts across Iowa. This will help to shift the
better moisture and instability slightly to the southeast
across the area, mainly along and east of the Mississippi River
and south of Interstate 80. Deep layer shear is expected to be
strong through the day (60+ knots) and surface based CAPE of
1000 to as much as 2000 J/KG within the warm sector. This will
be sufficient for severe storms. Model soundings show large CAPE
profiles with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and curved
hodographs favoring tornadoes. If rain lingers longer across
northwest Illinois into the afternoon, it may shift the severe
weather threat farther to the east today. The Storm Prediction
Center has shifted the threat for severe weather southward for
today. The Enhanced (Level 3 out of 5) Risk for severe storms has
shifted to south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line with a Slight
(Level 2 out of 5) north. All modes of severe weather are
possible.

A cold front is forecast to quickly move across the area late
this afternoon into the evening, quickly bringing precipitation
chances to an end. Winds will turn to the west behind the front
with gusts up to 25 MPH possible, slowly diminishing overnight.
Low temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 40s
with lower 40s possible northwest of Cedar Rapids.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

In the wake of Mondays storm system, a broad trough will be
carved across the eastern US with northwesterly flow resulting
by midweek and continuing into the weekend. This will result in
cooler temperatures through the week with a slight warming
trend. There are numerous disturbances in this flow that will
bring periods of clouds and potential for showers and isolated
storms to the area, with timing of individual waves difficult to
narrow down at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A squall line with trailing stratiform rain is forecast to move
across eastern Iowa TAF sites this morning between 12 and 17 UTC
from west to east across the area. MVFR to periods of IFR
ceilings and visibilities are possible at all TAF sites in rain
and possible thunderstorms this morning with the IFR conditions
possible in the strongest showers and storms. Another round of
storms with MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities is possible
this afternoon into the early evening at all TAF sites but
confidence is lower on the exact timing and placement of these
storms. Winds will be sustained at 10 to 15 knots through the
day with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will turn from
southeasterly this morning to southerly by early afternoon and
then to the west after 00 UTC Tuesday as a cold front moves
across the area. MVFR ceilings will linger behind the front
through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Cousins

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
321 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-280830-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
321 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A dynamic storm will lift across the area today and bring two
rounds of thunderstorms to the area, The first round is this
morning with the second round during the afternoon and early
evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with
damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes possible. There is an
Enhanced or level 3 out of 5 Risk of severe storms south of a
Fairfield to Galesburg line with a Slight or level 2 out of 5 Risk
north.

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be need today and this evening.

DC