Tornado Warning 4, NWS Detroit, MI

776 
WWUS53 KDTX 150336
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1136 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

MIC145-150415-
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260415T0415Z/
Saginaw MI-
1136 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM EDT FOR WESTERN
SAGINAW COUNTY...

At 1136 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Marion Springs, or near St. Charles, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  St. Charles around 1140 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Brant,
Nelson, Swan Creek, Garfield, Hemlock, Shields, and Fenmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 4347 8403 4322 8402 4317 8437 4339 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0336Z 246DEG 35KT 4332 8427 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Mann

202 
WWUS53 KDTX 150344
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1144 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

MIC145-150415-
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260415T0415Z/
Saginaw MI-
1144 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM EDT FOR WESTERN
SAGINAW COUNTY...

At 1144 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near St. Charles, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  St. Charles around 1150 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Brant,
Nelson, Swan Creek, Garfield, Shields, and Fenmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 4347 8403 4322 8402 4317 8437 4332 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0344Z 252DEG 40KT 4324 8421 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Mann

614 
WWUS53 KDTX 150406
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1206 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

MIC145-150414-
/O.CAN.KDTX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260415T0415Z/
Saginaw MI-
1206 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WESTERN SAGINAW COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for southeastern
Michigan.

Remember, a Tornado Warning still remains in effect for Southeastern 
Saginaw County until 1245 AM.

&&

LAT...LON 4347 8403 4322 8402 4317 8437 4332 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0403Z 248DEG 36KT 4332 8395 

$$

Mann

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
805 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stretch of warm conditions throughout the work week with daytime
temperatures in the 70s each day for most locations.

- Potential exists for thunderstorms to develop tonight, mainly
between 8 pm and 3 am. Storms may become severe, capable of
producing wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes.

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday and
still another round of storms possible Thursday.

- Each episode of storms brings the possibility for locally heavy
rainfall. A Flood Watch is in effect for all areas tonight through
Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCT to BKN clouds at 5kft or above start the TAF period with a S to
SW wind at around 5 to 10 knots. Thunderstorms are underway to the
west of Lake Michigan with come activity just starting to move over
the south central portion of the lake. Thunderstorm activity is
expected to develop into a linear system and push into Michigan
tonight, mainly in the 03Z to 08Z window. MBS and FNT would be the
first to see activity in that window given the expected southwest to
northeast orientation. Confidence remains fairly high for a line of
storms with relatively high coverage to maintain TSRA tempo groups
tonight. Slight timing adjustments may still be needed as the line
approaches or if anything develops ahead of the line. There looks to
be a window by around mid to late morning for a period of dry
weather develops. Shower and thunderstorm looks to redevelop to some
degree tomorrow.

DTW/D21 Convection... Fairly high likelihood for a line of
thunderstorms to move across much of southeast Michigan affecting DTW
between 04z and 09z tonight. Some uncertainty in intensity exists,
but damaging wind gusts will be the biggest threat.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  High for ceilings aob 5000 ft tonight. Medium Wednesday morning.

*  Medium to high for thunderstorms tonight between 04z and 09z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

DISCUSSION...

Evening/Early Tonight Severe Storm Potential- Enhanced risk south of
I-69, Slight Risk north of I-69:

Remnant MCV over northern Indiana that generated a few light showers
near the state border is pushing east of the region this afternoon
and most importantly, its associated cloud shield is likewise
peeling away. Increasing insolation supports destabilization through
the late afternoon-early evening period with CAMs advertising a
southwesterly gradient from Grand Rapids to Detroit where 1000-2000
J/kg of SBCAPE to develops along/south. Additionally stalled frontal
boundary is lingering near the northern portions of the Saginaw
Valley this evening. These two features are the first to watch
before the arrival of then ongoing upstream convection from WI/IA
late evening. For the southern CAPE gradient, the fairly weak cap
looks to effectively erode between 00-02Z supporting isolated to
perhaps scattered convective initiation over areas south of M-59.
For the stalled Tri-Cities frontal boundary, its associated
initiation depends on enough instability lifting that north which
favors a window more 01-03Z. Discrete storms that do manage to fire
in either region occur early enough to be fully surface based and be
working with at least 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE (likely more for the
southern storms) and very steep mid-level lapse rates between 7.5-
8C/km. Additionally wind profiles/hodographs show healthy curvature
in the lowest 1-2kft leading to between 100-200 m2/s2 of SRH and 0-
1km bulk shear values nearing 25kts. All together, near-sunset
environment is favorable for surface-based storms with all hazards
in play, though exactly how much initiation actually occurs is
unclear. While the above is (potentially) occuring, upstream
convection undergoes upscale growth while crossing from WI into west
MI feed by a 45-55kt southwesterly LLJ congealing into a line of
storms (wind feed isn't particularly strong true MCS development).
Line motion is favored to trend southerly given the CAPE gradient
and southwesterly inflow. Worth noting there is a subset of CAMs
like the 06Z HRDPS and 12Z ARW that favor more robust development
along the southerly flank resulting in the main line push dropping
southeast over northern IL/IN instead of SE MI. That said, current
forecast remains with the main line dropping NW-SE across the local
area late evening-early tonight, 03-07Z. Overnight arrival lends
concern for the ability for the line to maintain itself both in
strength and a surface layer root due to decreasing available
nocturnal instability and only modest inflow winds. Should anything
maintain a surface connection, damaging wind gusts and an isolated
QLCS tornado would be the main hazards as low level winds maintain
favorable curvature in advance of the line.

Wednesday- Marginal Risk of Severe:

Exactly how Wednesday morning plays out depends on the behavior of
this evening's convection and where the line eventually peters out-
either over far southern SE MI or over OH. The line pushing fully
into OH keeps the first half of the morning drier. Regardless, the
local area remains entrenched in this mild/moist airmass with
continuing deep layer southwesterly flow. No strong forcing
mechanism to speak of Wednesday with embedded PV anomalies instead
lifting into the state and spurring clusters of showers and
thunderstorms. Airmass is conducive for instability to rebound back
near 1000 J/kg by afternoon with bulk shear remaining near 30-40kts
offering a shot an isolated storm borderline severe storm. Damaging
wind gusts are main hazard, hail threat is hampered by anemic mid-
level lapse rates near or below 6C/km.

Thursday- Marginal Risk south of M-59:

Central Plains mid-level trough eventually lifts into the central
Great Lakes providing stronger synoptic support for increasing
shower coverage late Wednesday night-Thursday morning. Wave provides
stronger wind profiles pushing shear values towards 40-45kts.
Inhibiting factor for storms is overnight arrival of the wave with
showers ongoing through the day reducing diurnal destabilization
potential. Peak CAPE generally favored to hold in the 500-1000 J/kg
range and focused towards the state border where 'best' chances for
an isolated strong storm will reside. Shortwave eventually kicks
east Thursday night tapering off lingering showers.

Flooding Concerns- Flood Watch for all SE MI till Thursday night:

Spring thus far has already been quite wet for much of the area with
all 3 climate sites sitting above normal since March 1st: Saginaw
+4.30", Flint +3.78", Detroit +0.88". In the past 10 days, all but
the southern portions of Lenawee/Monroe have seen between 1.5-4.5",
highest values north of M-59 where areal/river flooding occurred
last week. Humid airmass maintains PWAT values around 1.3" tonight
through the day Wednesday before nudging higher towards 1.5-1.6"
Wednesday night-Thursday. With multiple additional rounds of showers
and storms this evening through Thursday evening, QPF forecasts
within that timeframe are between 1-3" though higher amounts around
4" are possible depending on thunderstorm coverage and tracks. Given
the antecedent conditions with this forecast, a Flood Watch has been
issued for all of SE MI through Thursday evening.

Late Week:

Mid-level ridging works across the central Great Lakes daytime
Friday finally provides a reprieve from rainy weather. This however
is shortlived as a broad mid-upper trough digs out of the northern
Rockies into the upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes. Attendant
surface low sends a respectable cold front through the local area
Saturday-Saturday night. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
likely in advance with afternoon arrival currently favored. Region
is outlooked in a Day 5 15% risk due to the strong wind profile and
modest diurnal destabilization potential. Much cooler air follows as
850mb temps fall from +14C Saturday to -8C by Sunday morning and
eventually -10 Sunday night as the core of thermal troughing
crosses. This results in overnight lows Sunday night below freezing
in the upper 20s to around 30F. Given the warm stretch this week,
growing season is likely to have started for most of the area which
would warrant frost/freeze headlines.

MARINE...

Surface warm front has lifted back toward Saginaw Bay, with
southwest flow to the south of the front and east flow for points
north. Patchy fog persists over portions of Lake Huron north of the
front, but overall dry weather is in place. The next round of
thunderstorms is expected to develop over northern IL/WI late this
afternoon and track east-southeast into the local waterways
overnight as a line. Strong to severe storms are expected mainly
after 04z (midnight local time), with potential for damaging wind
gusts over 50 knots, large hail over 1 inch, and isolated
waterspouts. This line of storms exits east around sunrise
Wednesday, but unsettled conditions are expected to continue into
the weekend. Each round of thunderstorm activity brings potential
for localized erratic waves and gusty winds. Widespread headlines
are not expected.

HYDROLOGY...

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms start this evening and
continue off-on through Thursday evening. Each episode brings the
possibility for locally heavy rainfall, particularly where focused
areas of thunderstorms develop, which offers flooding concerns given
the already wet spring and saturated soils. Forecast rainfall totals
from tonight to Thursday night range 1-3" across SE MI with
potential for 4" dependent on coverage/track of thunderstorms each
episode. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entirety of the region
into late Thursday night as a result. Widespread flooding chances
are tied if areas see repeated thunderstorms and carry low
confidence in occurrence, however flooding of low-lying, poor
drainage, and urban areas are likely as is creek and river flooding.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ047>049-053>055-
     060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......MV
HYDROLOGY....KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
313 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-151915-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
313 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is an Enhanced Risk south of I-69 and a Slight Risk north for
severe weather this evening and tonight with potential for large
hail, damaging wind and isolated tornadoes. Storm motion will be east
around 45 mph. Any training of storms could lead to localized
flooding.

All of SE MI is under a Flood Watch tonight for locally heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a marginal risk of severe weather Wednesday. Storm motion
will be east around 45 mph.

There is a chances of thunderstorms again Thursday.

All of SE MI is under a Flood Watch through Thursday evening due to
the repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-151915-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
313 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a Slight Risk for severe weather this evening and tonight
with potential for large hail, damaging wind and isolated waterspouts.
Storm motion will be east around 40 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a Marginal Risk of severe weather Wednesday. Storm motion
will be east around 40 knots.

There is a chances of thunderstorms again Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

KDK