Tornado Warning 19, NWS Detroit, MI

149 
WWUS53 KDTX 031758
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
158 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

MIC111-031807-
/O.CAN.KDTX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-260903T1830Z/
Midland MI-
158 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MIDLAND COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 4348 8436 4348 8403 4320 8393 4318 8393
      4323 8437 4347 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 295DEG 33KT 4340 8432 

$$

MIC145-031830-
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-260903T1830Z/
Saginaw MI-
158 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT FOR WESTERN
SAGINAW COUNTY...

At 157 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Merrill, or 10 miles northwest of St. Charles,
moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  St. Charles around 205 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Brant,
Nelson, Swan Creek, Shiawassee National Wildlife Refuge, Garfield,
Hemlock, and Shields.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4348 8436 4348 8403 4320 8393 4318 8393
      4323 8437 4347 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 295DEG 33KT 4340 8432 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

MR

287 
WWUS53 KDTX 031806
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
206 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

MIC145-031830-
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-260903T1830Z/
Saginaw MI-
206 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT FOR WESTERN
SAGINAW COUNTY...

At 206 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over St. Charles, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  St. Charles around 210 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Brant,
Nelson, Swan Creek, Shiawassee National Wildlife Refuge, Garfield,
Hemlock, and Shields.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4348 8418 4348 8403 4320 8393 4318 8393
      4323 8437 4340 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 288DEG 39KT 4329 8420 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

MR

379 
WWUS53 KDTX 031815
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
215 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

MIC145-031830-
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-260903T1830Z/
Saginaw MI-
215 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN SAGINAW COUNTY...

At 214 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near St. Charles, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Saginaw County, including the following locations...
Brant, Swan Creek, Shiawassee National Wildlife Refuge, and Garfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4338 8410 4341 8401 4320 8393 4318 8393
      4323 8437 4326 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 295DEG 33KT 4326 8410 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

MR

235 
WWUS53 KDTX 031824
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
224 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

MIC145-031834-
/O.EXP.KDTX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-260903T1830Z/
Saginaw MI-
224 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SAGINAW COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
230 PM EDT...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened. 
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
southeastern Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4338 8410 4341 8401 4320 8393 4318 8393
      4323 8437 4326 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 295DEG 33KT 4322 8399 

$$

MR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
958 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid again today with heat indices in the 90s, the
warmest of which will be found closer to the MI/OH border and into
the Metro region.

- There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe weather today.
Severe weather development will be possible at all times today, but
most favorable timing will be this afternoon into late tonight.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into tomorrow.

&&

.UPDATE...

A wealth of elevated instability resides over most of the region
this morning with the 12Z DTX raob depicting steep lapse rates of
7.6 C/km between 780 mb and 610 mb, fueling over 2500 J/kg of
MUCAPE. Observed EBWD of 33 kt with a straight hodograph is plenty
for organization of updrafts this morning - evidenced by the mature
convection in the Lansing vicinity. This activity will continue to
track ESE along an instability gradient and remnant outflow, though
longevity of current intensity carries some uncertainty. Current
trajectories carry storms between the I-69 and I-94 corridors through
12pm with potential for isolated instances of severe wind and hail
production, as well as locally torrential rainfall.

This activity will fortify the outflow boundary bisecting the area,
which may then serve as a focus for convection initiation later this
afternoon as a ridge-running shortwave tracks overhead. Perusal of
morning guidance doesn't capture this evolution very well but
continues to highlight increasing likelihood for upstream convection
west of Lake Michigan to grow upscale as it tracks through during
the peak in diurnal instability. The morning discussion outlines
this scenario well, and will note that the updated SPC Day 1 SWO
expanded the 15% severe wind contour northward to include areas
south of a line from Midland/Bay City to Marysville. The update also
introduced a CIG1 area south of I-69, indicating increasing
potential for significant severe winds in excess of 74 mph.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 713 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

AVIATION...

Humid conditions remain this morning behind the frontal boundary
draped across Lower Michigan. This is allowing patchy dense fog to
develop. Greatest coverage is near MBS this morning and hanging just
north of FNT. A lull in showers and thunderstorms will transition to
renewed development of showers thunderstorms upstream that are
expected move into southeast Michigan by this afternoon. A period of
predominately VFR conditions should precede that arrival. A
secondary opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will possible
tonight as probability for lower MVFR ceilings also increases into
tomorrow morning.

D21/DTW Convection... Multiple opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms throughout today with favored timing this afternoon
into tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling 5000 ft or less early this morning and this
  afternoon. Moderate after 00Z tonight.

* Moderate for thunderstorms this afternoon into late tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

DISCUSSION...

For this morning... SPC mesoanalysis continues to showcase MUCAPE
values around 2000 J/kg along with 35-40 knots of effective bulk
shear with sufficient mid-level lapse rates around 5.5-6C/km. These
conditions have supported repeated rounds of thunderstorms, some
strong to severe, primarily along and and between M59 to I94.
Initiation has taken place along a quasi-stationary frontal zone
which has been reinforced from prior convective outflow. Additional
showers and storms remain possible through this morning as this
boundary provides a mechanism for ascent within this subtropical
airmass. Given the degree of elevated instability and bulk shear,
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through
the morning.

Warm and humid conditions are again expected this afternoon
dewpoints again holding in the upper 60s to low 70s. Current
thinking is that temperatures will be slightly lower relative to
yesterday which decreases probabilities to reach heat advisory
thresholds. Additionally, given where the frontal boundary is, some
potential exists for showers and thunderstorms through the late
morning and into the afternoon which if materialized, could temper
temperatures locally. Although several hi-res solutions continue to
retain an early day period of clearing and stronger insolation.
Regardless, temperatures will be capable of pushing back into the
upper 80s to low 90s through the MI/OH border into the Metro region
with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.

For this afternoon and evening, SE MI will be susceptible to renewed
thunderstorm activity. One possible scenario will stream from
activity upstream across Wisconsin or the western Great Lakes as a
strengthening LLJ pools moisture and enhances convergence along the
stalled frontal zone. Mean flow and forecasted storm motion would
carry this activity SE towards lower Michigan through the afternoon
and evening, placing all of SE MI within the corridor for potential
strong to severe thunderstorm development. Surface based instability
will increase with southward extend. SBCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg is
possible near the MI/OH border and tapers towards 1000 J/kg north of
I-69. Deep layer shear around 30-35 knots remains solid for
organized convection with all storm modes possible.

Damaging wind gusts will remain the primary hazard when taking into
account strong low-level lapse rates, high PW, and strong buoyancy.
This will support efficient precipitation loading for wet
microbursts and/or consolidation of outflows with cold pool dynamics
that can support bowing segments. Isolate large hail also remains
possible given improving mid-level lapse rates approaching 6.5C/km.
A large portion of SE MI has been upgraded to a Slight Risk in the
latest SWODY 1, aligned where the better daytime instability is
projected to reside.

Additional rounds of showers and storms then becomes increasingly
likely late tonight into Friday morning as an elevated warm front
strengthens from SE WI into lower Michigan. This has been a pretty
robust signal in the latest 00Z runs. The boost in low to mid-level
theta a with convergence along this boundary will help support an
area of showers and storms overnight. While surface base instability
diminishes during this time, elevated instability and strong shear
holds which will maintain potential for organized convection. Storm
threat would transition to hail given the more elevated nature of
this activity along with localized heavy rainfall and flooding,
especially with any repeated convection along the boundary. Some
uncertainty resides how far east this activity will extend, but the
trends still take activity to or south of M59 overnight.

Friday will again offer additional chances for rain and thunderstorm
before ridge amplification across the Plains aids in reinforcing
high pressure over the Great Lakes, which will work to decrease rain
and thunderstorm chances this weekend.

MARINE...

Winds and waves remain below threshold criteria across the central
Great Lakes, aside from a few thunderstorms passing through a very
muggy air mass this afternoon and evening. Gradient winds will shift
from southwest to northwest once a weak cold front drops
southeastward through region. Convective chances decrease a bit
overnight within the wake of the slowing front, and winds could
briefly trend towards calm. A low confidence forecast persist
through the end of the week and early this weekend as a ridge over
central CONUS remains quasi-stationary. This offers several
additional opportunities for periods of showers and thunderstorms.
MWS and SMW headlines will continued to be used to address short-
term local watercraft concerns. No long-fused headline concerns
through the weekend, although areas of dense fog could become an
issue again late tonight into Thursday morning for portions of the
waterways.

HYDROLOGY...

There will be multiple chances for thunderstorm development through
the entirety of the day today, with the afternoon and evening hours
affording the best time frame for some better coverage. Given that
SE MI remains in a subtropical air mass, precipitation rates will be
very efficient with any thunderstorms. A quick 1-2" of rainfall will
be possible with any stronger thunderstorms which would lead to
localized flooding concerns. Overnight, there is a signal for
showers or thunderstorm development to then set up around or south
of M59, which will be capable of producing an additional 1-2+" of
rainfall pending where this rainfall axis sets up.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

UPDATE.......TF
AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KGK
HYDROLOGY....AM

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
354 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-040800-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
354 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hot and humid conditions this afternoon and evening with heat
indices peaking in the mid to upper 90s. These higher heat indices
will be most favorable closer to the MI/OH border and through the
Metro Detroit area.

There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe weather today. Main
severe weather hazards will be wind gusts to 70 mph and hail to 1.5
inches. Localized flooding will also be possible with repeated
thunderstorm activity. Discrete thunderstorms will be possible
initially with multicell clusters and linear bowing segment favored.
Storm motion will NW to SE around 35 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A chance of strong thunderstorms continues Friday as well with
locally heavy rain possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-040800-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
354 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heat indices in the mid to upper 90s are expected this afternoon.

There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe weather today. Main
severe weather hazards will be wind gusts in excess of 50 knots and
hail to 1.5 inches. Discrete thunderstorms will be possible
initially with multicell clusters and linear bowing segment favored.
Storm motion will NW to SE around mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A chance of strong thunderstorms continues Friday with locally heavy
rain possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

AM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1010 AM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Livonia                 42.40N  83.37W
09/02/2026                   Wayne              MI   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple trees down around the city of Livonia.

&&

Event Number DTX2600698

CB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1015 AM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1106 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Plymouth                42.37N  83.47W
09/02/2026                   Wayne              MI   Law Enforcement

            Numerous large tree branches downed with power outages
            around the city of Plymouth.

&&

Event Number DTX2600699

CB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1155 AM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Clarkston          42.75N  83.38W
09/03/2026                   Oakland            MI   Amateur Radio

            Large downed tree blocking road at Sashabaw and
            Stickney Roads in Independence Twp causing road closure.

&&

Event Number DTX2600700

MV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1159 AM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Holly                   42.80N  83.62W
09/03/2026                   Oakland            MI   Emergency Mngr

            Large Tree down in Holly.

1058 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 S Holly               42.74N  83.62W
09/03/2026                   Oakland            MI   Emergency Mngr

            Large tree down.

1127 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Rochester               42.69N  83.12W
09/03/2026                   Oakland            MI   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple downed trees and wires around Rochester.

1127 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Lake Orion          42.77N  83.31W
09/03/2026                   Oakland            MI   Trained Spotter

            One large healthy tree down.

&&

Event Number DTX2600701
Event Number DTX2600702
Event Number DTX2600703
Event Number DTX2600704

CB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1241 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Highland            42.63N  83.57W
09/03/2026                   Oakland            MI   Public

            Multiple trees down on Duck Lake Rd.

&&

Event Number DTX2600705

CB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
107 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Auburn Hills        42.69N  83.20W
09/03/2026                   Oakland            MI   Trained Spotter

            Multiple trees and power lines downed.

&&

Event Number DTX2600706

CB