Tornado Warning 17, NWS Detroit, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
710 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this
  evening and overnight. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat.

- There is a Slight to Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms
  Thursday night. Damaging winds, large hail, and spin-up tornadoes
  are all possible.

- Not as warm and much less humid Friday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorm clusters ongoing over central and SE Mi initiated as
mid level subsidence weakened ahead of the upstream MCS/MCV. This
activity percolates ahead of the MCS itself which is expected to
reach central Lower Mi during the 00-01Z timeframe. IR satellite
imagery indicates a larger scale warming/weakening trend on the
system, however with some renewed stronger updrafts after crossing
Lake Mi. It now appears at least segments of the system either
maintain or regains strength within MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg in place
across southern Lower Mi and we'll see if the weaker wind profile
proves to be a limiting factor this far east.

A mixture of rain-cooled VFR/MVFR ceiling and fog linger in the wake
of the MCS later tonight. After a few hours of mid level subsidence
as well, there remains a model signal showing elevated convection
redeveloping but with low spatial predictability.

The terminal corridor is then fully in the warm sector of low
pressure spanning from northern Ontario into the Midwest during
Thursday. This allows daytime instability to lift ceiling into VFR
while heat and humidity build for the next round of thunderstorms
currently projected for later Thursday evening.

D21/DTW Convection... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
evening precede the MCS crossing western Lower Mi at forecast
issuance. There is also a chance of renewed storm development later
tonight, roughly from 06-09Z.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling aob 5000 feet tonight and Thursday morning.

* Moderate for thunderstorms this evening and late tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

DISCUSSION...

Weak mid-level height rises have promoted scattering of morning
stratus allowing for respectable solar insolation from late morning
into this afternoon. Weak warm front, that had been confined to
southern SE MI, washes north in a downstream response to mid-upper
trough digging into the upper Midwest/far western Great Lakes
through the rest of the afternoon expanding lower 70 dewpoints into
the northern CWA. Despite this near-tropical near surface layer,
lingering capping inversion is expected to hold through the late
afternoon period. As we reach the early evening (~21Z and after),
things get murkier wrt to the cap. An EML above 850mb, partially
sampled by ILX's 12Z RAOB, is progged to lift into southern lower
around roughly 21Z. This feature brings steepening mid-level lapse
rates near or in excess of 7.5C/km as well as a ribbon of higher
theta-e on its lead nose. While model forecast soundings are still
spilt, there is an increasing subset that advertise this in
combination with diurnal boundary mixing/growth to weaken our cap
sufficiently to allow for at least isolated to widely scattered
convective initiation as lift associated with this buoyancy gradient
is able to connect thru to the lower level moisture. Should this
occur, ample instability is available for convection with an MLCAPE
gradient ranging from 1500-2500J/kg and equilibrium levels between
35-40kft. Main limiting factor for strong/severe storms is weaker
column wind profiles that will be largely uni-directional shear only
20-25kts at best. That said, given the humid airmass and a well
mixed boundary layer, an isolated strong wind gust would be
possible. Hail threat, while non-zero, is lesser with freezing
levels near 15kft. Additional hazard is torrential rainfall and
localized flooding given the aforementioned humid airmass and warm
cloud layers exceeding 10kft.

Overnight period brings the next chances for showers and storms as a
series of MCS's lift into the Great Lakes. First of these, currently
over WI/IL, carries the best shot at any severe potential due to its
arrival window latter part of the evening into early tonight. While
there is significant uncertainty to what degree this complex holds
together all the way into SE MI, dependent on cold pool maintenance,
arrival of a SW LLJ strengthens column wind and subsequent shear
profiles. As such, severe wind gusts would be possible with any
surviving convection through early tonight before the nocturnal
boundary layer can attempt to establish itself. A secondary
Midwestern MCS looks to then cross or clip the region late tonight-
early Thursday morning. Minimal severe chances with this window of
showers/storms given the timing falling in the diurnal instability
minima. Primary impact instead is clearing out area instability to
start Thursday.

Thursday is expected to be similar to today as post-convective
subsidence and diurnal mixing promote clearing skies through the
morning hours. Airmass remains unchanged with dewpoints hovering in
the lower 70s with sunnier skies again allowing temperatures to
climb into the low 90s with heat indices rising to the upper 90s to
near 100.

Attention then turns to severe potential Thursday evening-night
where SPC has the area under a Day 2 Slight/Enhanced risk outlook.
Strong PV core rounding the base of the upper Midwest trough
Thursday afternoon sparks convection along the attendant surface
cold front over the Midwest/Plains. There is high confidence this
convection to organize and grow upscale whilst crossing the
Mississippi river region while approaching the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley. Where confidence is still low is in how much instability
builds back into SE MI over the course of Thursday. There has been a
notable shift in a number of CAM outputs (ie ARW, MPAS, HRDPS) for
the main instability to hold near the state line promoting a
southward drift in the squall favoring better severe wind potentials
over the southern portions of the CWA into IN/OH. That said, still
have a set (ie HRRR, NSSL, NAM Nest) that favor better northerly
advection and hold a more northerly track towards the central and
northern CWA-where the current Day 2 Enhanced Risk is. Regardless,
wind gusts to 70mph would be the primary hazard with QLCS tornadoes
being a secondary threat given the convective mode.

Cold front crosses the area Friday morning ending any lingering
showers and ushering in a more seasonably average airmass for Friday
and Saturday. A secondary cold front drops out of northern Ontario
and through the central Great Lakes early Sunday bringing the next
chances for wider spread showers/storms with cooler air following to
start the work week.

MARINE...

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon through Thursday night. A front is currently draped across
region which will try to develop some convection this afternoon. A
larger complex of severe storms west of Lake Michigan is forecast to
track east-northeast across lower MI later this evening bringing the
next chance of severe storms to the area. Could be a lull through
part of Thursday before a low pressure system tracks from Iowa
through the straits Thursday evening into the overnight. This would
push a stronger cold front through the region with the next round of
storms. Wind gusts in excess of 50 kt and large hail would be the
main threats with these storms. This front will pass through early
Friday morning, bringing an uptick in westerly winds in its wake as
well as a brief period of drier conditions to start the weekend.

HYDROLOGY...

A moisture-rich environment remains in place today and Thursday with
multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms over the next
two days. Progressive nature of expected thunderstorms generally
limits widespread flooding concerns, although heavy downpours with
rainfall rates over an inch per hour will be possible. Localized
flash flooding cannot be ruled out, but is mostly confined to low-
lying, urban, or flood prone areas.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ069-070-075-076-
     082-083.

Lake Huron...None.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

&&

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....MV

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
315 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068-111915-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-
315 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Hot and humid conditions today with heat indices in the upper 90s.
There is also a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe weather this
evening and overnight. Damaging winds to 60 mph are the main threat,
but isolated large hail and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
Storm motion will be west to east at 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Heat indices in the upper 90s are expected again Thursday. There is
then potential for an organized line of thunderstorms to track
across SE Michigan late Thursday night. Damaging winds in excess of
70 mph, spin-up tornadoes, and large hail will all be possible if
the line holds together.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-111915-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
315 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather this evening and
overnight. Damaging winds to 60 mph are the main threat, but
isolated large hail and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Storm
motion will be west to east at 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Heat indices in the upper 90s are expected again Thursday. There is
then potential for an organized line of thunderstorms to track
across SE Michigan late Thursday night. Damaging winds in excess of
70 mph, spin-up tornadoes, and large hail will all be possible if the
line holds together.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

MIZ069-070-075-076-082-083-111915-
Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
315 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Heat Advisory is in effect from noon to 8 PM EDT today. There is
also a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe weather this evening and
overnight. Damaging winds to 60 mph are the main threat, but isolated
large hail and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Storm motion
will be west to east at 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Heat indices near 100 degrees are expected again Thursday. There is
then potential for an organized line of thunderstorms to track across
SE Michigan late Thursday night. Damaging winds in excess of 70 mph,
spin-up tornadoes, and large hail will all be possible if the line
holds together.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

KDK

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
701 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Hail             Dearborn                42.31N  83.21W
06/10/2026  M1.00 inch       Wayne              MI   Trained Spotter

            Multiple reports of 1 inch hail in Dearborn.

0641 PM     Hail             Dearborn Heights        42.34N  83.27W
06/10/2026  M1.25 inch       Wayne              MI   Trained Spotter

            Mutiple reports of hail between 1 and 1.25 inches.

&&

Event Number DTX2600540
Event Number DTX2600541

drk

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
714 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MIZ047-053-102345-
Saginaw MI-Midland MI-
714 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SAGINAW AND
SOUTHERN MIDLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 714 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
St. Louis, or near Alma, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Midland, St. Charles, Merrill, Oil City, Pleasant Valley, Nelson,
Laporte, Gordonville, Hemlock, Porter Township, and Poseyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4372 8461 4359 8417 4328 8417 4329 8437
      4347 8437 4347 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 201DEG 21KT 4344 8460

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
748 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MIZ063-110015-
St. Clair MI-
748 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY
THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

At 747 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
New Baltimore, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
New Baltimore, Algonac, Marine City, Harsens Island, Anchorville,
Pearl Beach, and Fair Haven.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
southeastern Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4267 8251 4261 8252 4257 8257 4255 8259
      4256 8264 4253 8267 4253 8273 4268 8273
      4268 8271 4269 8271 4271 8273 4278 8273
      4281 8248 4276 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 243DEG 24KT 4261 8276

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SF