Special Weather Statement, NWS Detroit, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1255 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stretch of warm conditions throughout the work week with daytime
temperatures in the 70s each day for most locations.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop tonight.
Potential exists for isolated severe storms capable of producing
wind gusts to 60 mph and large hail. Locally heavy rainfall also
possible.

- An active pattern will maintain periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. Each episode brings the
possibility for locally heavy rainfall.

- There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday night,
mainly between 8 pm and 2 am. Storms will be capable of producing
wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ascent provided by low level jet and warm advection will bring
showers and thunderstorms to the terminals overnight. Line of
convection trailing a center of low pressure is expected to push
across Southeast Michigan in the 8-12z timeframe. Timed out TEMPO
group for thunderstorms from north to south. Low level saturation
and cloud is anticipated early Tuesday, included prevailing MVFR
ceilings. Dry conditions for much of Tuesday with another period of
thunderstorm activity after 03z 4/15.

DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorm activity is possible between 10-
14z Tuesday.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  High for ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and Tuesday.

*  Moderate for thunderstorms early Tuesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

DISCUSSION...

Higher magnitude warmth within breezy southwest wind marking
conditions late afternoon. High temperatures again arriving a solid
15 to 20 degrees above normal - mid to upper 70s most locations.
General mid level stability will hold into the early evening hours
as shortwave upper ridging propagates through, ensuring dry
conditions persist into the early evening hours. Attention then
turns to two seperate areas of focus for convective development and
expansion tonight. Remnant convective cluster evident on water vapor
and radar lifting northeast into northern IL now forecast by an
increasing number of hi res solutions to maintain some degree of
integrity as it ejects across southern lake MI/northern IN. This will
occur with the backdrop of another period of nocturnal warm/moist
air advection as 850 mb flow strengthens within southwest flow across
the warm sector. Forecast now highlights an increasing potential for
convective development/expansion within the 00z-06z window as
associated ascent works through. Any late evening activity likely to
be slightly elevated as nocturnal boundary layer cooling affords a
standard stable near surface layer. With that, isolated deeper
updrafts plausible given the steepness of lapse rates above the
stable layer, with adequate bulk shear for greater organization. This
maintains potential for some instances of larger hail and gusty
winds, in addition to brief heavy rainfall. Additional convective
organization and expansion expected this evening along/north of a
frontal boundary extending across central WI. This activity likely
to consolidate with time as it spills east/southeast into the early
morning hours, but mixed signal yet on both trajectory and scale.
Steep mid level lapse rates will maintain a risk for hail with any
healthier cores. Latest SPC Day 1 outlook continues to highlight all
of Southeast Michigan within a Marginal Risk for severe weather for
tonight.

The resident airmass remains virtually unchanged heading into
Tuesday. Some degree of stability may exist for a portion of the
daylight period, pending the coverage and pace of exit of overnight
activity. Solid diurnal destabilization likely by afternoon, at
least across the south, where MLCAPE pushes 1500+ as temps again
climb well into the 70s and dewpoint hovers in the lower 60s. Some
evidence of a weak frontal zone or differential heating boundary
bisecting the area. This could offer a lower coverage of convection
for peak heating. Otherwise, still no evidence of more meaningful
forced ascent materializing prior to 00z Tuesday evening.

Existing mid level southwest flow ripe with minor perturbations and
bouts of greater moist isentropic ascent continue to present a
favorable, yet challenging background environment to gauge
convective potential locally Tuesday night. There remains strong
model evidence for convective initation and expansion to occur in the
vicinity of the frontal boundary across northern IL/southern WI and
western lower MI Tuesday evening. Very supportive environment will
exist for the maintenance and possible upscale growth of this
activity into portions of southeast Michigan sometime within the 00z
to 04z window. While the nocturnal timing brings lessening
instability with time near the surface, MuCape projected to exceed
2000 j/kg. Frontal zone now draped across the Saginaw valley and
thumb will offer a greater focus across this region. In fact,
noteworthy backed/southeast low level flow at the frontal interface
gives pause to the possibility for organized updrafts to rotate. A
mix of discreet and multicellular clusters will bring the risk of all
hazards - strong winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes. All of
Southeast Michigan remains with a Slight Risk for severe weather
Tuesday night. Some areas of heavy rainfall also a concern given
expectation for efficient rates given high end moisture content /PW
near 1.3"/.

Mild/moist airmass still entrenched Wednesday and Thursday. Outgoing
forecast continues to highlight expectation for a high coverage of
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, but some downward revision in
precip chances possible as greater focus may again hold to the south
and west during the daylight period. Another nocturnal convective
response likely Wed night as moisture transport increases along the
nose of the low level jet. Periodic chances for additional showers
and thunderstorms lasting into Thursday. Dry and continued mild
Friday, then rain chances increase again early next weekend.

MARINE...

Shortwave ridging this afternoon has led to pleasant marine
conditions under a modest southwest breeze. Pockets of 25 knot gusts
are observed over land, but quickly drop off offshore where profiles
are more stable. Attention turns to an upstream cluster of
thunderstorms over northern Illinois that will track into southeast
Michigan after sunset this evening. These storms will be capable of
large hail to an inch, frequent lightning, and isolated gusty winds
over 35 knots. This will be the first of several rounds of nocturnal
thunderstorms this week as multiple waves of low pressure ripple
along a stalled frontal zone. Each round of storms will bring
potential for strong to severe storms to the southern half of Lake
Huron, Lake St. Clair, and western Lake Erie. The front is forecast
to hover around the Saginaw Bay area, with northerly winds emerging
north of front and southwest winds for points south. Wind and wave
concerns this week will be tied to thunderstorm activity.

HYDROLOGY...

An active pattern will bring periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms tonight through Thursday. Each episode brings the
possibility for locally heavy rainfall, particularly where focused
areas of thunderstorms develop. Rainfall amounts in excess of half
an inch will be possible for a round of rain tonight. Additional
rainfall between one and two inches currently forecast to fall
between Tuesday and Thursday. While widespread flooding is not
expected, some minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage and urban
areas along with rises on area rivers are possible.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......MV
HYDROLOGY....MR

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
353 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-141000-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
353 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A marginal risk of severe weather exists tonight, with potential for
large hail. Storm motion will be northeast around 35 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a Slight Risk for severe weather Tuesday and Tuesday night
with potential for large hail, damaging wind and isolated tornadoes.
Storm motion will be east around 45 mph.

Periodic chances of thunderstorms continue Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-141000-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
353 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A marginal risk of severe weather exists tonight, with potential for
large hail. Storm motion will be northeast around 30 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a Slight Risk for severe weather Tuesday and Tuesday night
with potential for large hail, damaging wind and isolated tornadoes.
Storm motion will be east around 40 knots.

Periodic chances of thunderstorms continue Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

DRK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1019 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

MIZ054-140330-
Tuscola MI-
1019 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT TUSCOLA COUNTY THROUGH 1130 PM
EDT...

At 1019 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Frankenmuth, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Reese around 1025 PM EDT.
  Vassar around 1030 PM EDT.
  Fairgrove around 1040 PM EDT.
  Caro around 1045 PM EDT.
  Cass City and Gagetown around 1115 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include East Dayton, Deford,
Colling, Tuscola, Wilmot, Colwood, Wisner, Ellington, Gilford, and
Watrousville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4367 8346 4367 8312 4342 8311 4325 8369
      4360 8370 4361 8372 4361 8373 4363 8374
      4364 8372 4362 8368 4370 8358 4374 8347
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 239DEG 27KT 4337 8374

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

MV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1103 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

MIZ048-140330-
Bay MI-
1103 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BAY COUNTY THROUGH
1130 PM EDT...

At 1103 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bentley, or near Standish, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pinconning, Bentley, and Mount Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4391 8404 4391 8391 4392 8390 4392 8387
      4380 8389 4375 8395 4381 8417 4400 8416
      4400 8405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0303Z 228DEG 36KT 4396 8408

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

MV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1218 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 N Detroit River Light 42.01N  83.14W
04/13/2026  M50 mph          LEZ444             MI   C-Man Station

&&

Event Number DTX2600382

CB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1223 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     Marine Tstm Wind Grosse Pointe YC        42.43N  82.87W
04/13/2026  M49 mph          Wayne              MI   Mesonet

&&

Event Number DTX2600383

CB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1227 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 PM     Marine Tstm Wind Caseville Light         43.95N  83.29W
04/13/2026  M40 mph          Huron              MI   Mesonet

&&

Event Number DTX2600384

CB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
207 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

MIZ047-048-053-060-140645-
Bay MI-Shiawassee MI-Saginaw MI-Midland MI-
207 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BAY...SAGINAW...
NORTHERN SHIAWASSEE AND SOUTHERN MIDLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM
EDT...

At 206 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pleasant Valley to Marion Springs to 6
miles north of Laingsburg. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Owosso, St. Charles, Merrill, Oakley, Henderson, and Marion
  Springs around 210 AM EDT.
  Midland and Chesaning around 215 AM EDT.
  Freeland around 220 AM EDT.
  Saginaw and New Lothrop around 225 AM EDT.
  Auburn, Zilwaukee, and Bridgeport around 230 AM EDT.
  Bay City around 235 AM EDT.
  Kawkawlin around 240 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Brant, Nelson,
Carrollton, Garfield, Fenmore, Burt, Buena Vista Township,
Poseyville, Layton Corners, and Willard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM EDT for
southeastern Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4377 8396 4353 8386 4322 8386 4322 8393
      4302 8393 4295 8436 4347 8437 4347 8459
      4360 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 0606Z 240DEG 42KT 4354 8452 4327 8433 4299 8433

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

MV