Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Detroit, MI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
848 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and scattered thunderstorms today, mainly this morning and
  early this afternoon.

- Seasonally cool this week.

- Dry Monday, but showers and possible storms return Tuesday
afternoon and late Wednesday/Wednesday night.

-Heaviest rainfall looks to be Wednesday night, with the potential
to exceed 1 inch.

&&

.UPDATE...

Quick update to increase pops based on current trends, as the upper
level-wave enters from the midwest and takes on a neutral tilted
axis. This will support widespread deformation showers for much of
southeast Michigan during the late morning/midday hours, with with
the surface boundary slipping east. The front has already cleared
the north half of the CWA, with temps in the mid to upper 50s
reinforced by the cooler waters of Lake Huron. The hourly
temperature forecast will be very difficult for any particularly
location. The Detroit area will rise into the low to mid 70s, but
once showers spread in, temperatures will drop before a modest
recovery late in the day. With the surface front/reflection likely
east of the state by noon, severe thunderstorms are not expected due
to a lack of sufficient instability; however, heavy downpours can be
expected with any isolated to scattered thunderstorm development.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 603 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

AVIATION...

A relative lull in convective coverage is ongoing at forecast
issuance, but moisture transport along a slow-moving cold front
offers renewed development of scattered to numerous showers mid to
late morning. Ceilings will experience fluctuations but with MVFR
the predominant category this morning. The surface front is
currently sinking south between the I-69 and M-59 corridors and
marked by a wind shift from west-southwest to north and northeast.
Enough instability wedged ahead of it will support potential for
isolated rumbles of thunder for the Metro Detroit terminals. The
front will progress south and east and is forecast to clear the
terminals around noon with wind becoming more uniform from the
northwest and breezy (20 to 25 kt) this afternoon and evening. Post-
frontal drying improves lower ceilings to VFR, though SCT to BKN
coverage of boundary layer cloud and a few additional showers will
be possible through the afternoon. High pressure building into Ohio
Valley promotes light westerly wind and continued VFR tonight.

D21/DTW Convection...There is a low chance of thunderstorms as
showers approach from the north early this morning. Additional
showers are likely between 16z and 19z, with the higher probability
of thunder occurring over the eastern D21 airspace.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this morning. Low this
  afternoon.

* Low for thunderstorms before 19z.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

DISCUSSION...

The advection of an instability axis in advance of a slow moving
prefrontal trough will sustain showers and thunderstorms across Se
Mi early this morning. A weak instability axis is forecast to slowly
exit southeast of the metro Detroit area between 15Z and 17Z. Can
not rule out isolated strong convection early this AM given the
strength of the deep layer shear overhead (0-6km bulk shear values
ranging from 35 to 60 knots, with the higher values north of the I-
69 corridor). Ascent along/in advance of an associated trough axis
will invoke an increase in the frontogenetical response in the mid
levels, resulting in the emergence of a more widespread pattern of
showers late this morning into early this afternoon. As the main
region of showers exits east, diurnal heating is shown to support
weak late day instability which combined with convergence along the
main cold front will support a chance of lingering showers during the
afternoon. The inland push of the Lake Huron marine layer has
dropped temps into the 50s across the northern thumb early this
morning. Some additional morning cooling will occur with the showers,
although model soundings suggest diurnal mixing boosting afternoon
temps into the 70s.

Seasonally strong cold air advection within northwest flow will
force 850mb temps into the single digits during the course of the
afternoon and evening. Clearing skies with sfc dewpoints dropping
into the 40s will result in a relatively chilly night as forecast
min temps will range from the mid to upper 40s (low 50s in the
Detroit urban area).

A strong upper low will remain positioned over or just south of
Hudson Bay through the week, maintaining slightly cooler than normal
temps through the forecast period. Forecast concerns will revolve
mainly around timing of mid level waves pivoting around the base of
upper low. There is reasonable agreement in timing of the next short
wave into the Great Lakes late Mon night into Tuesday. Backed flow
in advance of this wave will advect instability back into Se Mi
within increasing SW flow. Current indications among probabilistic
guidance suggests instability advection may only support weak
daytime instability across Se Mi, with the better instability
remaining just southwest of the forecast area. Nonetheless, high
chances of showers/thunderstorms will remain warranted during peak
daytime heating Tues aftn/evng. The next wave is set to arrive in
the Wed night/Thursday time frame. Longer range deterministic
solutions all indicate the instability remaining south of the state
line, with srn Mi most likely within a region of cool rain/showers.

MARINE...

Winds veer toward the northwest this morning as a cold front crosses
through the central Great Lakes. This boundary leads to some showers
and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to marginally severe.
Gradient winds increase during the day, approaching 20 knots. Small
Craft Advisory criteria be reached for parts of Saginaw Bay during
late afternoon and early evening hours, although duration should be
brief. Breezy conditions return each afternoon early next week, and
dry weather prevails through at least Tuesday morning.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

UPDATE.......SF
AVIATION.....TF
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......KGK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
347 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-150800-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
347 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today, mainly this morning. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts to 40 MPH as
they move to the east at 30 MPH. The thunderstorms are associated
with an approaching cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The next round of thunderstorms is possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening ahead of a weak cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-150800-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
347 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today, mainly this morning. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts to 40 MPH as
they move to the east at 30 MPH. The thunderstorms are associated
with an approaching cold front.

A small craft advisory is in effect for Saginaw Bay up to Port Austin
today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The next round of thunderstorms is possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening ahead of a weak cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

SC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
955 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     Rain             4 N Burton              43.05N  83.62W
06/14/2026  M1.15 inch       Genesee            MI   Co-Op Observer

            24 hour rainfall total.

&&

Event Number DTX2600575

SS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1105 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

MIZ069-070-075-076-082-083-141530-
Lenawee MI-Macomb MI-Monroe MI-Oakland MI-Washtenaw MI-Wayne MI-
1105 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MONROE...WAYNE...LENAWEE...
SOUTHEASTERN OAKLAND...SOUTHERN MACOMB AND WASHTENAW COUNTIES THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...

At 1103 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Rochester to 6 miles east of Hillsdale.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Warren, Ann Arbor, Livonia, Troy, Southfield, Taylor, St. Clair
Shores, Pontiac, Novi, Romulus, Adrian, Monroe, Ypsilanti, Mount
Clemens, New Baltimore, Flat Rock, Saline, Tecumseh, Milan, and
Dundee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4205 8436 4207 8413 4217 8413 4267 8319
      4269 8271 4233 8298 4229 8309 4224 8313
      4214 8312 4172 8342 4174 8360 4171 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 1503Z 257DEG 20KT 4263 8313 4189 8451

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1145 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

MIZ075-076-141645-
Washtenaw MI-Wayne MI-
1145 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WAYNE AND EASTERN WASHTENAW
COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM EDT...

At 1144 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Livonia to near Canton to near Saline.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warren, Ann Arbor, Livonia, Southfield, Taylor, St. Clair Shores,
Romulus, Ypsilanti, Flat Rock, Saline, Milan, Grosse Pointe, Downtown
Detroit, Canton, Detroit, Dearborn, Wyandotte, Trenton, Grosse Ile,
and Northville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4203 8317 4201 8321 4204 8320 4209 8329
      4208 8404 4243 8369 4246 8283 4236 8288
      4232 8306 4229 8309 4224 8313 4212 8312
      4200 8315 4200 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 1544Z 254DEG 25KT 4237 8330 4226 8345 4212 8383

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DRK