Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Detroit, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
232 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for the eastern two thirds
of the CWA until 7 PM

- Dry and cool Wednesday through Friday morning.

- Rain returns by Friday evening and continues into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Pressure fields clearly show the prefrontal trough tracking through
western sections of the CWA. This trough will serve as the focus for
continued convection. Southwest gradient winds have been gusting 30
to 40 mph this afternoon, indicative of some decent wind fields.
With temperatures reaching the mid-80s and dew points in the mid-to-
upper 60s, MLCAPEs have reached 1500+ J/kg south of M-59. Per latest
SPC mesoscale analysis and DTW ACARS data, the CIN/cap has eroded
completely. Thus, further shower and thunderstorm development is
expected through the rest of the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm
watch is in effect for the eastern two-thirds of the CWA until 7 PM,
but there is a good chance it may be canceled earlier.

Localized/scattered damaging wind gusts should be the dominant
hazard, given the mainly unidirectional low-level flow and good
downdraft capes. However, because of the earlier start to activity
and weak convergence along the prefrontal trough, it may be tough to
sustain updrafts to support organized severe storms (barring any
interactions with outflow boundaries).

The actual cold front still needs to move through during the evening
hours, and additional storms will be possible with any leftover
instability. However, expect this prefrontal activity to deplete
much of the fuel for the main front.

Upper-level confluent flow and sprawling high pressure (1032 MB)
will be in place tomorrow through Friday morning over the Great
Lakes region, supporting dry and cool weather.

Rain showers will return by Friday evening, however. Longwave
troughing over the Rockies will capture and send a subtropical
shortwave and moisture-laden warm front into southern Lower Michigan
by Friday night. 850 MB dew points are progged to reach into the
lower teens (Celsius) on Saturday. EPS probabilities for 24-hour
rainfall exceeding half an inch are in the 60-70 percent range for
the bulk of southeast Michigan.

&&

.MARINE...

Small Craft Advisories remain in place into this evening as
southwest winds gust around 25 knots along the land/marine
interface. The development of strong to severe thunderstorms is
increasingly likely this afternoon into the evening, favored across
southern Lake Huron and locations south. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is now in effect until 7PM EDT. Wind gusts aoa 45 knots will be the
primary hazard for severe weather development. Passage of the cold
front will end the severe weather threat, veering winds from the
southwest to northwest through the evening. High pressure builds
behind the front, bringing lighter winds through the midweek period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

AVIATION...

Another hot and humid day (by mid-May standards) lends potential for
diurnal convection this afternoon and early evening. To the west of
the terminals, initial updrafts are testing what little remains of
the capping inversion layer, characterized by shallow updrafts and
limited glaciation/lightning. Meanwhile, sufficient daytime
insolation should lead to surface-based instability within the next
couple of hours marking an expansion in convective coverage across
some of the terminals. Confidence is highest from PTK south, but
uncertainty in overall coverage/intensity of thunderstorms remains.
FNT will be right on the edge of the pre-frontal troughing so opted
for a VCTS mention as opposed to a TEMPO for thunder the rest of the
PM hours. Visibilities will drop to IFR in the heaviest downpours.
Non-convective gusts have stayed elevated given the ambient wind
fields, but expect enhancements within water-loaded downdrafts.
Nocturnal stabilization emerges overnight as gusts drop-off, and
gradient winds gradually veer toward the north throughout the
overnight hours. Post-frontal northerly flow draws a plume of low-
level moisture through Southeast Michigan late tonight into
Wednesday morning favoring MVFR ceilings.

D21/DTW Convection...Window for scattered convection is focused
between 20Z and 23Z this afternoon/evening, although initial storms
could drift eastward a bit sooner. Storm motion will be southwest to
northeast around 40 kt while the corridors of storms migrate west to
east. IFR visibility reductions possible in heaviest downpours.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for thunderstorms 20-23Z today.

* Medium for ceilings at or below 5000 ft through this evening, then
  high early Wednesday.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ361>363-
     462>464.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.

&&

DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....KGK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1041 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NW Rochester Hills    42.66N  83.17W
05/18/2026                   Oakland            MI   Trained Spotter

            Report of large tree limb down on house causing damage
            to roofing

0328 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Adrian                  41.90N  84.04W
05/18/2026                   Lenawee            MI   911 Call Center

            Sporadic trees reported down across the entire county,
            but particularly in and around Adrian.

0400 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Tri Cities Intl Airport 43.53N  84.08W
05/18/2026  M56 mph          Saginaw            MI   ASOS

            Measured at KMBS - MBS International Airport

0400 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Hemlock             43.42N  84.19W
05/18/2026                   Saginaw            MI   Trained Spotter

            24 inch diameter healthy tree down

0403 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SE Antrim Center      42.79N  84.06W
05/18/2026                   Shiawassee         MI   Public

            Photo of a healthy tree down across road. Estimated 1
            ft diameter.

0405 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SW Barton Hills       42.28N  83.80W
05/18/2026                   Washtenaw          MI   Emergency Mngr

            report of multiple power lines down

0412 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Tri Cities Intl Airport 43.53N  84.08W
05/18/2026  M63 mph          Saginaw            MI   ASOS

            Measured at KMBS - MBS International Airport

0414 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Livingston County Airpo 42.63N  83.98W
05/18/2026  M45 mph          Livingston         MI   AWOS

            Measured at KONZ - Livingston County Airport

0416 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Saginaw Harry Browne Ai 43.43N  83.86W
05/18/2026  M60 mph          Saginaw            MI   AWOS

            Measured at KHYX - Harry Browne Airport

0417 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Dundee                  41.96N  83.66W
05/18/2026  M81 mph          Monroe             MI   Trained Spotter

            Measured on a handheld anemometer

0418 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Saginaw Harry Browne Ai 43.43N  83.86W
05/18/2026                   Saginaw            MI   Trained Spotter

            Report of multiple trees down near Harry Brown Airport

0418 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mount Morris            43.12N  83.70W
05/18/2026                   Genesee            MI   Trained Spotter

            Large tree limbs down on powerlines.

0421 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NW Flint              43.05N  83.71W
05/18/2026                   Genesee            MI   Public

            Mulitple large limbs and powerlines down.

0424 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Chilson                 42.53N  83.86W
05/18/2026                   Livingston         MI   Public

            Report of a tree down

0424 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SE White Lake         42.63N  83.46W
05/18/2026                   Oakland            MI   Amateur Radio

            Report of a large tree on home

0426 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NE Essexville         43.62N  83.83W
05/18/2026                   Bay                MI   Amateur Radio

            Report of 10 to 12 inch tree limbs down

0430 PM     Marine Tstm Wind Lexington Harbor        43.27N  82.52W
05/18/2026  M51 mph          Sanilac            MI   Mesonet

0435 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Carleton                42.06N  83.39W
05/18/2026                   Monroe             MI   911 Call Center

            Reports of trees and wires down in the county,
            especially across northern sections of the county.

0435 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SE Fenton             42.79N  83.71W
05/18/2026                   Genesee            MI   NWS Employee

            Large tree limb down.

0445 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Oakland County Intl Air 42.66N  83.41W
05/18/2026  M58 mph          Oakland            MI   ASOS

            Measured at KPTK Pontiac Airport

0450 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Otter Lake          43.22N  83.43W
05/18/2026                   Lapeer             MI   Trained Spotter

            Report of 3ft diameter pine tree down

0450 PM     Marine Tstm Wind Saginaw Bay South       43.81N  83.72W
05/18/2026  M55 mph          Bay                MI   Buoy

0452 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Sebewaing           43.70N  83.46W
05/18/2026                   Huron              MI   Public

            Photo of healthy tree snapped near base

0454 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     S Wyandotte             42.21N  83.15W
05/18/2026                   Wayne              MI   Public

            Social media photos of large tree limb down and small
            tree snapped

0455 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 W Sand Point          43.91N  83.38W
05/18/2026  M55 mph          Huron              MI   Mesonet

0457 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Ann Arbor Municipal Air 42.22N  83.74W
05/18/2026  M49 mph          Washtenaw          MI   ASOS

            Measured at KARB

0500 PM     Marine Tstm Wind Caseville Light         43.95N  83.29W
05/18/2026  M59 mph          Huron              MI   Mesonet

0500 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Deford              43.51N  83.15W
05/18/2026                   Tuscola            MI   Public

            Social media photo of a healthy tree snapped

0512 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Juhl                43.36N  83.01W
05/18/2026                   Sanilac            MI   Public

            Large tree limb and powerlines down.

0518 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Detroit City Airport    42.41N  83.01W
05/18/2026  M43 mph          Wayne              MI   ASOS

            Measured at KDET - Detroit City Airport

0519 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SW Utica              42.62N  83.03W
05/18/2026                   Macomb             MI   Amateur Radio

            Report of a large tree down on house and car

0519 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Utica               42.64N  83.07W
05/18/2026                   Macomb             MI   Amateur Radio

            Report of tree down on power line

0522 PM     Marine Tstm Wind Peche Island Light      42.36N  82.91W
05/18/2026  M53 mph          Wayne              MI   Buoy

0523 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Shelby Township    42.66N  82.99W
05/18/2026                   Macomb             MI   Trained Spotter

            Report of trees down near 22 mi and Schoenherr Rd and
            23 mi and Schoenherr Rd

0527 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Waldenburg          42.67N  82.94W
05/18/2026                   Macomb             MI   Public

            Social media photo of healthy tree snapped

0527 PM     Marine Tstm Wind Detroit River Light     42.00N  83.14W
05/18/2026  M51 mph          Monroe             MI   Buoy

0530 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 E Harbor Beach        43.85N  82.64W
05/18/2026  M51 mph          Huron              MI   Mesonet

0533 PM     Marine Tstm Wind Selfridge ANGB          42.62N  82.83W
05/18/2026  M49 mph          Macomb             MI   ASOS

0544 PM     Marine Tstm Wind Grosse Pointe YC        42.43N  82.87W
05/18/2026  M51 mph          Wayne              MI   Mesonet

0545 PM     Marine Tstm Wind Lexington Harbor        43.27N  82.52W
05/18/2026  M48 mph          Sanilac            MI   Mesonet

0600 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 5 NE Lexington North    43.37N  82.45W
05/18/2026  M63 mph          LHZ443             MI   Ship

0600 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 W Riverside           42.56N  82.65W
05/18/2026  M49 mph          St. Clair          MI   Mesonet

&&

EVENT NUMBER DTX2600464 DTX2600481 DTX2600463 DTX2600467 DTX2600473
DTX2600468 DTX2600465 DTX2600475 DTX2600474 DTX2600466 DTX2600469
DTX2600503 DTX2600501 DTX2600483 DTX2600484 DTX2600470 DTX2600487
DTX2600482 DTX2600502 DTX2600471 DTX2600472 DTX2600488 DTX2600480
DTX2600489 DTX2600490 DTX2600476 DTX2600491 DTX2600492 DTX2600504
DTX2600477 DTX2600478 DTX2600479 DTX2600496 DTX2600485 DTX2600493
DTX2600497 DTX2600494 DTX2600498 DTX2600499 DTX2600495 DTX2600486
DTX2600500

BT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
217 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

MIZ063-068>070-075-076-191915-
Livingston MI-Macomb MI-Oakland MI-Washtenaw MI-St. Clair MI-
Wayne MI-
217 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WAYNE...OAKLAND...
MACOMB...NORTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR...SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON AND
NORTHERN WASHTENAW COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

At 217 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Milford to Hamburg to near Chelsea. Movement
was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Novi, Brighton, Milford, Dexter, Hamburg, South Lyon, and Whitmore
  Lake around 220 PM EDT.
  Pontiac around 230 PM EDT.
  West Bloomfield around 235 PM EDT.
  Rochester around 245 PM EDT.
  Romeo around 250 PM EDT.
  Troy around 255 PM EDT.
  Armada around 300 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Anchorville,
Franklin, Keego Harbor, Waterford, Hudson Mills Metropark, Shelby
Township, Commerce, Ray Center, Utica, and Auburn Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
southeastern Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4263 8254 4252 8273 4254 8281 4247 8283
      4243 8290 4225 8410 4248 8391 4266 8361
      4307 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 240DEG 41KT 4258 8357 4245 8377 4233 8396

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BT

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