Beach Hazards Statement 4, NWS Detroit, MI

585 
WHUS43 KDTX 180841   
CFWDTX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
441 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

MIZ049-190200-
/O.CON.KDTX.BH.S.0004.260718T1200Z-260719T0200Z/
Huron-
441 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...High swim risk from high wave action and strong currents.
  Dangerous swimming conditions are expected.

* WHERE...Huron County.

* WHEN...From 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deep water and
  prevent return to shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
341 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe intensity
thunderstorms as coverage becomes numerous this afternoon.

- The Air Quality Alert remains in effect through Saturday due to
persistence of wildfire smoke causing hazardous air quality.

- Improvement of smoke concentration experienced overnight may be
erased later tonight as wind shifts northerly behind the cold front.

- Dry weather with cooler temperatures and lower humidity moves in
by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A low pressure system tracking across Ontario, just north of Lake
Superior will bring a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms today
locally as the cold front drops through SE MI. Much of the guidance
has remained fairly consistent the last couple runs in terms of the
parameter space and storm potential, though the CAMs continue to
offer the typical variety of scenarios ranging from a dry afternoon
to multiple lines of storms. SPC Day 1 has remained unchanged as it
transitioned from the previous Day 2 outlook. Even the Wind, Hail
and Tornado risks remain unchanged at 15-30%, 5%, and 2%
respectively. This is all reasonable taking account the instability
and dynamics present with the setup today. The front will be over
Mid MI around sun up, fighting capping and lack of instability so
low risk of strong to severe early. Southwesterly flow will advect
instability ahead of the front which the front will then compact as
it pushes SE. Strong low level lapse rates (but weaker in the mid
levels) along with daytime heating should help a few storms break
the cap out ahead of the front. CAPE builds as the front sinks
toward the Metro Detroit area peaking around 2500-3000 J/kg with
bulk shear increasing to around 35-40 knots later in the afternoon.
Hodographs initially have some turning before low level jet perks up
later making longer, straighter hodographs. This would lead to any
isolated cells merging and becoming linear through most of the
event. Damaging wind will be the main threat with hail and isolated
tornadoes possible as well. Very moisture rich environment with
PWATs around 2 inches and surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
will lead to efficient rain makers, but a fast storm motion around
40-50 mph should help offset any flooding risk with progressive
storms. Timing still looks to be mainly in the noon to 4pm window
with an hour or so buffer on either side.

High pressure builds back into the region tonight through Sunday with
northerly winds tonight bringing cooler and drier air into the area.
There is a chance some smoke could get pulled back over the region,
but unsure as to how much would be surface based verse elevated so
will be something to watch. Models show the plume of smoke setting
up more to our west by the end of the weekend.

The ridge breaks down locally and rebuilds over the western conus
through the first half of the week. This put the jet and
northwesterly flow over the region presenting a couple opportunities
for storms mid week. Troughing over the region will help keep temps
down, with highs in the 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.MARINE...

Still monitoring upstream convection associated with weak low
pressure systems approaching northern Lower Michigan and the lower
Ohio Valley. Some of this activity should reach Lake Huron late this
evening and early tonight. Latest Hi-Res models indicate a weakening
trend for these showers and thunderstorms, once they reach the
waterways. A warm front lifts into the central Great Lakes this
evening and overnight marking a south-southwesterly wind shift which
pushes the wildfire smoke plume back into Canada, improving
visibilities. A secondary, and more robust, low pressure system
passes through The Straits and across northern Lake Huron Saturday
morning. This drags an attendant cold front through the region with
time, causing winds to veer northwesterly. Pre-frontal
(southwesterly) gusts over Saginaw Bay are now expected to exceed 25
knots, therefore a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Extensions are
possible for the rest of the Lake Huron nearshores with later
updates to account for stronger post-frontal gusts during the
afternoon hours. Additionally, isolated brief gusts to gales cannot
be ruled out over central Huron later on Saturday, but confidence is
too low for a Gale Warning. High pressure then builds back into the
region late Saturday and Sunday supporting drier conditions and
prevailing winds below headline criteria for rest of the weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1147 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

AVIATION...

Earlier convection has dissipated with on the ongoing northeastward
advancing warm front largely dry. Surface observations indicate the
increasing southwest flow is gradually driving the smoke plume out
of the area which will lead to much improved visibilities Saturday
morning. Building instability in advance of a cold front on Saturday
will provide the next chance for thunderstorms. The timing of the
fropa will dictate convective timing, with current indications
suggesting early to mid afternoon being the most likely time frame.

D21/DTW Convection...Linear convection is then forecast Saturday
afternoon, likely to develop either over the airspace or just north
and progress to southeast east.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and moderate on Saturday.

* Moderate in thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for MIZ049.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ421-422.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Sunday
     for LHZ441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......KGK
AVIATION.....SC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
402 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-182015-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
402 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

An Air Quality Alert is in effect today due to wildfire smoke
reaching the surface.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight
as a warm front lifts through the region. Severe weather is not
expected, but localized heavy rain and wind gusts to 40 mph will be
possible. Storm motion will be west to east at 25 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

An Air Quality Alert is in effect Saturday due to wildfire smoke
reaching the surface.

A band of thunderstorms accompanies a southward moving cold front
Saturday afternoon. Scattered strong to severe storms are possible
mainly between noon and 4 PM with damaging wind gusts the primary
threat. Storm motion will be WSW to ESE at 45 mph.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Monday night and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-182015-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
402 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Dense Smoke Advisory is in effect through this evening as wildfire
smoke remains entrenched across the Great Lakes.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight
as a warm front lifts through the region. Localized wind gusts to 34
kt will be possible. Storm motion will be west to east at 20 kt.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A band of thunderstorms accompanies a southward moving cold front
Saturday. Scattered strong to severe storms are possible with wind
gusts to 50 kt the primary threat. Storm motion will be WSW to ESE
at 40 kt.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Monday night and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

TF