Beach Hazards Statement 2, NWS Detroit, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
133 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat indices peak in the 90s this afternoon and evening.

- Severe thunderstorms possible tonight, mainly between 9 PM and 1
AM; damaging winds, large hail, and/or spin-up tornadoes possible.

- Not as warm and much less humid Friday through the weekend with
additional showers and some thunderstorms possible Saturday night
into Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...

The thunderstorm complex will be east of the area by 06Z. Some
localized area of low pressure in the wake of the complex will
support a brief interval of wind variability before a more notable
push of westerly winds take hold, possibly gusting over 20 knots at
times early this morning. Dry air advection during the morning will
scour out lingering low clouds by 12Z. Deepening daytime mixed layer
will again push westerly wind gusts to 20 knots at times this
afternoon.

D21/DTW Convection...The thunderstorm complex will exit east of the
airspace between 06Z and 07Z.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in ceilings aob 5000 feet.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

DISCUSSION...

An anomalously muggy airmass persists today with heat indices
attempting to lift back into the 90s for parts of Metro Detroit
south. Expired the heat advisory early as temperatures and dewpoints
have risen slower than forecast. Heat indices are now only expected
to peak in 90s through the rest of today. CAPE values are on the
rise amidst low afternoon cloud fraction. This uptick in instability
prepares the atmosphere for nocturnal convection. An evening squall
line is emerging upstream, attendant to a dynamic cold front, which
tracks eastward into the area after dark. 11.18Z KDTX RAOB shows a
lot of dry air still around with CIN persisting around 580 mb and
825 mb preventing free convection.

CAMs offer slight differences in timing of the main convective line,
once it moves into Southeast Michigan. 9 PM appears to be the
earliest arrival time for western Midland or Lenawee Counties,
before the line continues eastward across the rest of the region.
SPC's SWODY1 continues to advertise Slight to Enhanced Risk for the
forecast area, while model trends indicate increasing potential for
a weaker progression as it moves through. The nocturnal timing
doesn't help with a surface-based CAPE reduction, while the
reservoir of higher instability still lies well-off to the west,
over southwest Lower and northern Indiana. That is where the
greatest instability gradient lies with potential for discrete cells
before they eventually merge with the main line. A bow-echo should
emerge with enhanced RIJ dynamics and very strong shear as the line
reaches the local area presenting highest confidence in a severe
wind threat. The greatest adjustment this forecast cycle is focused
along the northern extent of the anticipated linear convection.
Confidence is falling in sufficient instability for widespread
severe hazards north of I-69, therefore the area of greatest concern
lies between the Ohio border and M-59, especially for areas west of
US-23. 30 knots of EBS and 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH favors rotating
updrafts, and some hodographs indicate higher potential for QLCS
tornadogenesis. Lower confidence in severe-level winds with
increasing eastward extent across the CWA.

Governing/digging mid-level shortwave clears overhead by 09Z Friday,
ushering the cold front out. Gradient/column flow veers zonally as
500 mb heights rebound with increasing stabilization. Surface high
pressure builds southeastward, out of The Plains, and into the lower
Ohio Valley. Forecast soundings indicate aggressive column drying
during the morning hours with PWATs dropping from 1.75 inches to
0.50 inches between 00Z and 12Z Friday. No precipitation concerns
the rest of the day with limited diurnal cumulus response. Lower
column dynamics still support renewed breeziness with a dry 5 kft
boundary layer, mixing down 20-25 knot flow.

The weekend forecast features a mix of warm and dry weather Saturday
followed by another cold front with precipitation Saturday night
into Sunday morning. 850 mb temperatures climb into the teens
(Celsius) Saturday, with highs in the mid-upper 80s and ample
sunshine. Another wave then moves in late Saturday into Sunday with
potential for some showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler air fills
in behind the front marking a more tranquil period of weather from
Sunday into early next week. Thermal troughing keeps highs below
normal, in the low-mid 70s through at least Wednesday. The next
chance for rainfall comes sometime Tuesday.

MARINE...

The next line of storms is expected to pass through the southern
Great Lakes later this evening into tonight around 11pm to 3am just
ahead of a cold front. The front will be tied to a low pressure
system lifting from southern WI into eastern Ontario. Winds will
increase from the southwest, turning more westerly, behind the front
offering a period of gusts to near 30 knots for Saginaw Bay and the
tip of the Thumb tonight into Friday morning so a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect. In the vicinity of the storms tonight, wind
gusts in excess of 50 kt and large hail would be the main threats
with these storms. This front will pass through early Friday
morning, but a second cold front will set up just west of the Great
Lakes to start the weekend which will keep elevated southwesterly
winds across the lakes through much of Saturday before the front
then sweeps east by Sunday morning. Winds will stay elevated around
20 knots, but out of the northwest Sunday.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LHZ421-422-
     441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......DRK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
319 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-120830-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
319 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is potential for an organized line of thunderstorms to track
across SE Michigan between 9 PM and 1 AM tonight. Damaging winds in
excess of 70 mph, spin-up tornadoes, and large hail will all be
possible if the line holds together. Storm motion will be west to
east at 45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A cold front tracks across Lower Michigan Saturday night bringing
potential for thunderstorms, with isolated severe weather possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-120830-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
319 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is potential for an organized line of thunderstorms to track
across SE Michigan between 9 PM and 1 AM tonight. Damaging winds in
excess of 70 mph, spin-up tornadoes, and large hail will all be
possible if the line holds together. Storm motion will be west to
east at 45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A cold front tracks across Lower Michigan Saturday night bringing
potential for thunderstorms, with isolated severe weather possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

KGK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1243 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

MIZ076-083-120545-
Monroe MI-Wayne MI-
1243 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MONROE AND WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH
145 AM EDT...

At 1243 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Northville to Milan to near Lambertville.
Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Livonia, Taylor, Romulus, Monroe, Flat Rock, Milan, Grosse Pointe,
Dundee, Carleton, Temperance, Downtown Detroit, Canton, Detroit,
Dearborn, Wyandotte, Trenton, Grosse Ile, Northville, Ida, and
Belleville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for southeastern
Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4173 8375 4208 8377 4209 8354 4243 8355
      4245 8287 4236 8293 4231 8309 4222 8315
      4212 8313 4209 8316 4210 8316 4211 8318
      4197 8317 4190 8324 4190 8330 4182 8337
      4172 8340
TIME...MOT...LOC 0443Z 254DEG 44KT 4242 8351 4210 8369 4174 8367

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1244 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Onsted                  42.01N  84.19W
06/12/2026                   Lenawee            MI   Public

            Social media photo shows tree down in Onsted.

&&

Event Number DTX2600564

TF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
118 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

MIZ063-070-120615-
Macomb MI-St. Clair MI-
118 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MACOMB AND ST. CLAIR COUNTIES
THROUGH 215 AM EDT...

At 118 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Almont to near Clinton Township to near
Grosse Ile. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts around 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  St. Clair Shores, Mount Clemens, New Baltimore, Richmond, Grosse
  Pointe, Capac, Clinton Township, and Armada around 125 AM EDT.
  Memphis and Emmett around 130 AM EDT.
  Harsens Island around 135 AM EDT.
  Algonac around 140 AM EDT.
  St. Clair, Marysville, and Marine City around 145 AM EDT.
  Port Huron and Lakeport around 150 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Anchorville, North
Street, Roseville, Shelby Township, Lynn Township, Ray Center,
Brockway, Utica, Washington, and Fort Gratiot.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for southeastern
Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4296 8242 4289 8247 4276 8247 4261 8252
      4255 8259 4250 8270 4254 8276 4254 8281
      4236 8288 4231 8307 4236 8293 4245 8287
      4246 8309 4287 8310 4289 8310 4289 8299
      4315 8300 4317 8250 4320 8247 4306 8242
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 253DEG 43KT 4296 8304 4252 8295 4213 8304

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
134 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     Marine Tstm Wind Grosse Ile Airport      42.10N  83.16W
06/12/2026  M45 mph          Wayne              MI   AWOS

0116 AM     Marine Tstm Wind Detroit River Light     42.00N  83.14W
06/12/2026  M58 mph          Monroe             MI   Mesonet

0119 AM     Marine Tstm Wind Grosse Pointe YC        42.43N  82.87W
06/12/2026  M61 mph          Wayne              MI   Mesonet

0122 AM     Marine Tstm Wind Peche Island Light      42.36N  82.91W
06/12/2026  M56 mph          LCZ460             MI   Mesonet

&&

Event Number DTX2600565
Event Number DTX2600566
Event Number DTX2600567
Event Number DTX2600568

TF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
141 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 S Azalia              42.01N  83.67W
06/12/2026                   Monroe             MI   911 Call Center

            Report of multiple large trees and wires down across
            northern Monroe County.

&&

Event Number DTX2600569

TF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
229 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Tecumseh            42.04N  83.94W
06/12/2026                   Lenawee            MI   Trained Spotter

            A large tree was blown down due to thunderstorm winds.

0102 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Ferndale                42.46N  83.13W
06/12/2026                   Oakland            MI   Broadcast Media

            A large tree and wires were blown down do to
            thunderstorms winds.

&&

Event Number DTX2600570
Event Number DTX2600571

SC